Wow thumbs UP! Thanks for such a great resource!

Is this business, the only certain thing is uncertainty. Looking ahead with projections is like reading the farmer's almanac. There are simply too many uncontrollable variables to consider when looking ahead. War in the Middle East, disease pandemics,financial stability, ect. make it almost impossible. As somebody already mentioned, ACA and Comair were the place to be. Today they're both nothing more than footnotes on Wikipedia.

I just interviewed at Xjt and have another interview with Trans states later this month. I had a glance at a list of people interviewing at Xjt and it seems like they are interviewing 3-5 guys a day this week, if everyone shows. I made it to the end of the day and got fingerprinted and drug tested so fingers crossed I'm hoping to hear something soon.

Congquestdz that is a great point! I completely forgot about the flow through agreements and that would be very interesting to see in this analysis. I am assuming the rolling 25% in a year will be the limit? Which would be about a 110 a year or 9 a month, till Delta rolls through the 409 pilots on that list? Thanks for the suggestion, any additional intel or insight helps.

I’ll try to get that updated soon with the FlowThrough agreement, since that will actually affect the percentage of pilots going from the rest of the Regional’s. I’ll try to keep this data updated as much as possible. I think this model should be pretty accurate, about 3-5 years out unless an airline is pulling airplanes from another airline, which could come up and happen within a year of being announced.

As fair as the AirWisconsin CPA being up 2015, I have not been able to find that anywhere, do you have a source or is it pretty reliable tribal knowledge from AirWisky?

Mesa still owns some 200’s and Dash 8’s but you are correct they aren’t flying any of them, and they should be offloaded soon, I went ahead and pulled them out of the model.

Much of what we remember as stepping stone airlines in the past were created due to growth which allowed for 2-3 year upgrades, but with Scope run to its limit and pressure being put on 50 Seaters, I think the order of the next few years will be shrinkage instead of growth. This will run upgrades on any airline not growing to about 4-5 years, and ones that are shrinking to 6-9 years, even with large pilot draw to the majors.

Attrition.... auto correct got me on that one.

Not all pilots on the list have flow rights. Those hired after Compass was sold to Trans States do not have flow. Around 380 are eligible. The flow is the lesser of 25% of the list or 20 a month.

What did they tell you about future hiring?

Bump

I would like to know with minimums at 1500 hours how are regionals doing recruiting new hires? Are they basically trying to hire all that come through the door or is it still very competitive?

Interesting, did they mention which side of the house you'll be flying on? CRJ side has had 3 classes in the past few months, and ERJ side has finished, so I'm curious which half is getting ready to spin up.

I just got placed into a pilot "puddle" for Expressjet. No class date yet, and they wouldn't say which plane. Im hoping ERJ and class in September.