Place your bets, DCI refleet/shuffle
 

Who wins, who loses?

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Delta Looks Ahead to December Refleeting - Memphis Daily News

Who Cares!!!!

That depends on whose balance sheet they end up on, and whether Delta wants to sign a 10+ year contrat so someone else will agree to that. My guess is there is only one regional enterprise that could make that happen. If Delta decides to constantly shuffle the planes around every 5 years then it is anyone's guess.

If Delta buys the aircraft - it will be gojet or pinnacle with a swap involved. If Skywest Or republic buy the aircraft, pinnacle is done imho.

I'll play

40 CRJ900s to Skywest Inc (21 Skywest, 19 XJT:p)
30 E175(plus?) to RAH

Ill play

agreed except I think CP will get a couple 175s.

Based on Delta's trend lines, I'd have to bet Comair isn't getting any planes.

Good luck guys. Sounds like Christmas will be a time of tears for many of us.

Like someone said earlier, a big key is whether Delta will take the hit on their balance sheet, especially with them being big on paying down debt right now. They really don't have to with RAH and Skywest Inc as options.

I actually think the order may be a split between comair and freedom aca has a chance as well

Could the TSH mrj order be involved? But Ill play. Pinnacle gets 40 900's and parks 80 200's...

MRJ is delayed at the very least until last quarter 2015 / first quarter 2016

Just in time for the next Scope Sale! :mad:

Ill play for real. There will be no embs. Delta will trade in 140 200's to bombardier. Because its delta that wants the returns on the 200s they own ( pinnacles). Now this is the tricky part: does delta then take those 70 900s in exchange and give them back to pinnacle giving them a fleet of 111 900s? Or do they make a three way deal with bombardier and Skywest allowing delta to return the 200s and Skywest purchase the 70 new 900s splitting them between express and Skywest. Go jet may get something as well (especially if pinnacle goes under). My official stance is that pinnacle ends up with 111 900s with a gutted contract which will be a net loss of 70 aircraft for them

Its gonna go to whoever has 50 seaters and is the most cost competetive. I really doubt DL is gonna give one regional all of the planes, they want those airframes spread across several carriers.

I would say it's Delta who lease the airplanes. They want control of moving them around. I don't think they want to be stuck with a long term contract like they are with Skywest and some of the 200's. Its easier for them to just move them around than go to certain operator and say "can you park xxx airplanes" like they were trying to do with Skywest. I wouldn't be surprise if Delta is waiting to see how Pinnacle's labor contract gets settle before announcing what they are doing with the 200's.

Yep, you are seeing it now already. Comair's airplane went to GJ, some went to Skywest. Pinnacle's 900's are going to Skywest.

All of Pinnacle's CRJ-200s are probably gonna be gone. In any case, good luck, and wish the best for those affected.

Delta already knows whats going to happen with our contract. They also already know where the planes are going. Companies don't last minute plan and decide these things, especially airlines. With two months to go before the investors meeting it would be highly unlikely if it wasn't already decided where every last one of the "new" airplanes are going (Wonder if that is why Spanjers and Co more than doubled the ask). The cards have already been dealt and bets have been made. Now we just wait to see everyone's hand. Unless you were lucky enough to inherit Shy's crystal ball.

What I meant to say was they are waiting for for the outcome of the labor contract before Delta announce it. I'm sure they already know where all the airplanes are goin to go.

Should make for some Merry holidays!

The thousands of pilots that have had their careers stagnated at the regional level due to both a financial crisis and the changing retirement age.

Hmmm. Then who flies the 125 50-seat jets that DELTA still wants?

I think when this all started there were 218 50 seat jets that needed to be eliminated to reach the 125 number delta has to be at by 2015. Skywest and Asa have given up 66. I'm not sure if comairs remaining 13 were already accounted for but we will say they weren't so 66+13=79. 218-79=139 left
Chautauqua operates 24 emb 145s
Pinnacle operates 140 200s
Skywest and Asa operate 90 more 200s after the trade in? Not sure about that one.
If pinnacle parked all 140 200s there would be 114 50 seat jets left so the math is not perfect. I'm sure there are variables we are not even thinking about

chq is starting to operate some 140s for DL soon.

I was told the new Delta scope allows unlimited sub-50 seaters. If so, the 140's won't be included.

Delta will never give one airline all the 900's. they need/love to play the "rate reset" game.. My guess is a 4 way split... Sky/pcl/Rp/Compass..

Our only saving grace is age 65 retirement attrition.

No. This is incorrect. DCI airframes (excluding turboprops with 37 seats or less and a MGTOW of 37,000 lbs) will be limited to 450. EMB140's would count toward the 450 limit.

Why is it always due to the financial crises and changing retirement age, sure this hasn't help but think about all the low ball commercial pilots that got hired with 250-500 hours that over flooded the work market. Everyone almost always talks about the attrition when the retirements kick in. What about the thousands that will have to leave because they don't meet the new time requirements. And of course there is always the known quote on the this forum. "IF YOU DONT LIKE IT LEAVE."

Is there any limit on airframes beneath that Johnso? I know Silver (aka gulfstream) has started flying SAABs for y'all recently out of ATL and I believe they have more airplanes on order. If I remember right the saab is <30k/36seats. And I dont have the numbers but it seems that they've been increasing the codeshare flying with Great Lakes in MSP.

Silver doesn't count because its a codeshare and not actually flying as Delta Connection.

Same with Lakes then. So it sounds like unlimited 'codesharing' at the 340b level.

Did anyone else notice how the article referred to "mainline" jets of 76 SEATS and more. They are including 900s in the mailine category. This may have simply been a mistake by the writer but I goin it interesting.

Nope. They could fly hundreds of 1-37 seat turbo props around. They don't have a limit.

Looking at Delta's international flying, looks like it's unlimited codeshare flying in anything....

They will probably regret that someday, just like they regretted unlimited 50 seat jets 10 years ago. Silver is a fast growing cancer in ATL. In case you haven't noticed, Mainline 319s and -88s have been doing a couple of flights a day most of the ASA 50 cities like AGS, CHA, and TRI. This has been a triumph of "taking it back". How long do you think it will take DAL to figure out how much cheaper it is to just run 4 340s a day to every city within 300nm of ATL?

DALPA will always be their own worst enemy, due to their shortsightedness.

I can't remember the last article I read about the airline industry that didn't have mistakes in it.

I think that the only way Compass gets into the fray is that if the deal that Embraer has made DL an offer that they can't refuse. DL still has 36 options for the Embraer 170/175. Compass has a slight chance to see some new airframes because we are already cheap and our costs are not going to go up much, if any, because of how our contract will be amended. And the 175 is a better airplane than the 900. It's more of a mainline airplane. But we only have the 36 we currently have on line that have a MTOW cutout in the current CBA agreement for DAL Pilots. Anything new would not be part of that cutout.

If DAL chooses the Embraer, I don't think that RAH will see any of them because Anderson views RAH as the competition. I don't think that he wants to give them additional revenue.