IMHO Any ongoing systemic problem that negatively impacts a nation's ability to move people and cargo between points has the potential to become a national security concern. The airlines represent an important slice of the overall transportation system of the nation. If people and things can't get around efficiently it has a weakening effect.

Regional's will not replace Legacy Carriers. There be too much demand for large aircraft and pilots to fly them. All legacy carriers alone will hire 10,000 pilots by the end of 2020. There ~10,000 regional pilots in the US.

I would remain worried about the economy going forward. Airline growth will reflect GDP performance, which is skewed by endless inflation (soft depression).

Actual unemployment in the United States is 23%:
The pilot shortage may very well right-size the industry and coincide with the future implosion of Western economies.

Correct, but that's not what I'm making a point of. Fact is... the amount of dudes retiring from the regionals that will go to majors vs. amount of CFI's is not going to be equal if everything plays out the way we're all thinking.

You mean it's not the 18% or whatever it was a few months ago which everyone thought was GREAT, and the economy was "turning around" when in reality it was just California forgot to report their unemployment numbers for October... :cool:

Since I have nothing to do right now on my layover, I counted up the active pilots on most of the regionals using APC numbers. Its more like ~21,000 regional pilots.

Add in the military pilots, corporate pilots, canadians, CFI's, Misc. Commercial pilots and man others and there will be no pilot shortage at the majors. The regionals may face some staffing issues 10 years down the road. The flood gates really don't open for another 6-8 more years.