Pinnacle Fleet Projection Analysis
 

The numbers are run for Pinnacles fleet announcement. The following is a description of it.

Pinnacle Announcement Commentary

This is the fleet projection

Pinnacle Airlines Pilot Demand Profile

I believe the current seniority number is right but if someone has an update of the amount of Pilots on the property I will update it.

Its ironic that in most business's people are compensated more for unpredictability, while in the Pilot business the pilots with the highest level of job certainty are compensated the best. Its kind of a reversal of the whole risk/reward principle that most careers are run on, the Pilot industry is strange in that regard.

My condolences to the Pinnacle Pilots and their families hopefully the data is informative.

Note if Pinnacle announces additional flying with another carrier the current projections would change alot.

Good luck to all PCL pilots but why would they speculate about a flow through? Delta had their chance with Mesaba and Compass when they had an established flow thru process and ended that quickly even when they had control of hiring techniques?

Thanks for sharing this info. It's a good read if nothing else.

The last SL we got was in August. We should be getting another one in the next month or so. I think we have ~2300 on property currently.

Thanks its be rerun for 2300 pilots.

Don't quote me on that number. I just know the attrition rate has been very high, and that's the number I've heard around several times.

66% of the pilot group furloughed if it passes
100% furloughed if it fails.

But 90% will land jobs at XJT/ASA/SKY/RP/AE and would be better off in 2-4 years, then the 450 downgrades that will never be Captains again.. The top 450 will lock in those spots and not go anywere... Not to mention the total slap in the face of former Comair employes... The way i look at it is the above airlines will hire 2000 pilots over the next 1-3 years if it fails. If it passes they may only hire 500.. Between them all... Time will tell but Delta has changed there hiring plans more then 4 times the past year so don't count on that...

Your assuming that Delta will not impose the same terms on these airlines in the future. ASA, XJT are in section 6 now, SKY is non union, they will be asked to fly at the same block hour rates 9E or Delta will continue down the line until X regional agrees to their terms. With regional flying shrinking many companies are eager to land these ever shrinking contracts. Delta has is in a huge position to set the market right now since they have shifted a lot of flying back to the majors and have pulled huge amounts of 50 seat capacity out of the market. Once this happens American, United, and US Air will be forced to do the same in order to compete. It looks more and more like the regional business will be a handful of small 76 seat operators, and then you will have your Great Lakes, and Silver doing the more remote ESA flying.

Exact number is 2449

So 176 gone in four months.