You never know. Your 5 year number is sobering but the 10 year number is 15k pilots retiring just from big 3 and Fedex, and 15 year number is 22k pilots retiring from the same. Regional FOs with little to no PIC time are getting calls now. So paraphrasing "Dumb and Dumber", just saying... you got a chance. Why not you?

 

Willing to bet that there won't be any issue with finding and hiring qualified pilots in the years to come.

1) At (new) United, pilots have been denied the job offer after the Hogan test, or the interview. Those pilots will get hired at Delta or American or somewhere else!

B) Give it till the end of the decade.. but expect to see age 67 to happen sooner or later. While that won't solve the pilot availability number problem overnight, it will help to adjust it to the right a little.

iii) Give it till the end of the decade and we see another downturn within the industry. Be it a Global conflict, a Global epidemic or another financial meltdown.. but something will "scare" management to stop hiring and possibly start furloughing.

-) There has never been a shortage of pilots.. just a shortage of pilots willing to work for low wages and horrible contracts.
If you took every Guard and Reserve Unit, throw in the Marine & Navy reserve Units and add the Army Guard Aviation units, you will come up with a couple of thousand qualified individuals. Problem is, how to "recruit" them. Maybe a signing bonus?!

At the end of the day, what we are seeing and experiencing is bad/poor management at the Airlines.
Again, willing to bet that you don't see a SouthWest flight cancel for lack of crew.. like you do on the United side. Be it mainline or especially Express. Ask yourself why?

Motch

 

Increase in mandatory retirement age is coming. Im guessing no limit will be the next thing.

 

Yup, coupled with a more stringent medical for the oldsters.

This could backfire, though ...

 

Actually, it has happened before.

Motch, you are one sharp dude. I'm not arguing with you;

Truth

Very possible, you been doing this a long time, and we've seen it happen, more than once.

Kind of differ with you on this one. The regionals are going have to start hiring in large amounts to account for the attrition that's about to happen. It's been proven in the past that when that does happen, there will ALWAYS be pilots that take the job because of the belief that it's just a "stepping stone", won't be there that long, etc.

It can be taken a step further, Using the CAL of old as an example. Although slightly different, it's the same concept. CAL is a legacy, the endgame, the destination, whatever. When they started hiring in 2005, there was NO shortage of pilots applying. Applying to an airline that paid 30ish an hour, had no health insurance for 6 monts, and easily one of the crappiest contracts out there. Reserve rules? What are reserve rules?

I'll bet you heard more than one former XJT pilot say something along the lines of "I'm glad to be at CAL, but I wish I could brought the XJT workrules with me". Yeah, CAL's contract sucked that bad.

The worst day at a legacy beats the best day at a regional, so don't take what I said above the wrong way. Not at all saying ANYONE should stay at a regional, G-T-F-O ASAP!!!!!!!!!!!!!! But it was sad that a legacy airline's workrules dipped below what a regional had. AT THAT TIME.

At TSA, did you commute RIC-LGA? Pretty sure I remember giving you jumpseating a long, long time ago.

 

How about I throw a little JET A to get this flame going....in the latest installation by Reverend Bedford he states.....

"The regional airline industry is slowly shrinking its way down to a handful of larger companies. Skywest Holdings, Republic Airways Holdings, Trans States Holdings and Mesa Air Group will likely be the last of the large, independent, regional jet operators in the country. Air Wisconsin may adapt, but it will be a painful and difficult transformation process. Pinnacle and Eagle will likely be acquired by one the groups mentioned above. While it will be a smaller industry in terms of the number of companies flying and the number of aircraft deployed, hopefully it will be a more rational industry and one that operates aircraft that are basically economically viable".

Regional pilot shortage solved at RAH coming soon to an oustation near you! Discuss amongst yourselves.

 

You forgot the God Bless at the end

 

Retirements stay heavy for the big 3 up to 2030. I've saw retirement numbers for United, and its crazy. In fact they increase after 5 years, and continue strong for 15 years. So for those with the notion that its 5 years of hiring followed by stagnation..well thats not whats foretasted to be. Thats good news if your not the 1/3rd as stated in previous posts, and even better if you do move on in 5 years because you wont the back of the hiring wave. We all know that things outside our control can shuffle this around, but when over half of your workforce is over 50 years old, thats a solid sign of movement.
I only see the 67 age thing coming into play if it gets REALLY bad and they cant hire anybody. I doubt most people would even go that long, or that management would push to rewrite the FARs to keep the highest payed pilots on staff unless it would hurt worse to not keep them otherwise.

 

Nope. There are several reasons why this absolutely WON'T happen. Liability is way too high for one. Also, lots of professions still have manadatory retirement ages. It's not just pilots. Guys can sue if they want, but a mandatory retirement age is not discrimination. There have not been studies conducted to prove motor and cognitive skills DON'Tdegrade dramatically in ones 60's. However, there have been studies which prove it does happen.

Plus, airline management would fight it IMO. No desire to keep higher paid employees on the payroll. But likely the biggest reason is this. How in the world do you staff an airline with no manadatory retirement age?? You simply can't. If you can't plan for retirements, then you can't plan for hiring/training. It would wreak economic havoc on the airlines. Management pulls out that card, and any discrimination lawsuit would be shot down ASAP.

 

I say let them up the retirement age to 67, hell, get rid of it all together! I honestly don't think it will change the amount of pilots needed a significant amount. Think about it... how many guys flying have special issuances already? How many do you think can medically stay flying till they're 70 or 80? Face it, when you get old, stuff stops working, the body gets tired. There will always be those that are the exception to the rule and more power to them! But the percentage that are able to do that will still be insignificant to the amount of pilots need to fill the ranks of those that can't. Plus, from a business/financial stand point, I don't think airline management will go for no retirement age... as already stated, it opens up too much liability and other costs. I think people are forgetting that this "pilot shortage" isn't just about retirements at the majors, but also with the lack of new pilots coming into the industry. The majors have shot themselves in the foot by contracting more and more flying out regionals with low pay. Fewer and fewer people want to become pilots because they see the idiocy of paying so much for training and then making so little the first 5 years or more. And of course the requirement for 1500 hours to get hired. It all adds up to higher restrictions to enter the industry. Something's going to give.... whether it's more regional flying going back to the respective mainline carriers (which I would like to see) or higher pay at the regionals, or frankly, something no one could possibly predict, there will be many changes in the industry as a whole over the next 5, 10, and 15 years. Hold on to your hats boys and girls, it's going to get interesting!