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-   -   Pilot shortage begins Nov 1, 2013 (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/regional/77999-pilot-shortage-begins-nov-1-2013-a.html)

Slats Extend 11-02-2013 07:24 AM


Originally Posted by slats fail (Post 1511882)
Exactly. Regionals are already feeling the pinch. Contracts should be improving if they want to attract newhires. Pilot groups signing concessionary contracts are signing their own death certificates.


You mean like the one PSA just signed to fly the 76 seaters?

JamesNoBrakes 11-02-2013 07:42 AM


Originally Posted by slats fail (Post 1511882)
Exactly. Regionals are already feeling the pinch. Contracts should be improving if they want to attract newhires. Pilot groups signing concessionary contracts are signing their own death certificates.

That costs the most and is the absolute last thing they'll do.

ArcherDvr 11-02-2013 08:29 AM

With 53% of the flying done by regionals today, vs. 15% in 2001, they are going to have to do something. Like many I don't believe there will be a shortage at the majors, but there should be steady hiring, and it is going to come from the regionals. The problem is the regionals have gone from a place where you spend a few years and move on to the majors, to a place where people are spending 10+ years. At that point you have to start thinking career. They are not going to be able to sell a company where you pay 100K for your training to top out at 60K on year 10 as an FO.

Avroman 11-02-2013 11:52 AM


Originally Posted by ArcherDvr (Post 1511920)
With 53% of the flying done by regionals today, vs. 15% in 2001, they are going to have to do something. Like many I don't believe there will be a shortage at the majors, but there should be steady hiring, and it is going to come from the regionals. The problem is the regionals have gone from a place where you spend a few years and move on to the majors, to a place where people are spending 10+ years. At that point you have to start thinking career. They are not going to be able to sell a company where you pay 100K for your training to top out at 60K on year 10 as an FO.

Ha, Endeavor gives you the joy of topping out at $33K/yr. to fly a shiny new CRJ-900. :mad: And they think they will be able to staff this place :p News flash, many of the captains on the current downgrade list will never hit the line as an FO. Meanwhile more FO's are already in the 2 week countdown to freedom (no, not the airline Freedom).

ArcherDvr 11-02-2013 11:59 AM


Originally Posted by Avroman (Post 1512028)
Ha, Endeavor gives you the joy of topping out at $33K/yr. to fly a shiny new CRJ-900. :mad: And they think they will be able to staff this place :p News flash, many of the captains on the current downgrade list will never hit the line as an FO. Meanwhile more FO's are already in the 2 week countdown to freedom (no, not the airline Freedom).

60k was a best case scenario.

Avroman 11-02-2013 03:46 PM


Originally Posted by ArcherDvr (Post 1512029)
60k was a best case scenario.

Sadly I won't make 60K this year as a captain thanks to the concessionary contract.

higney85 11-02-2013 03:58 PM


Originally Posted by Avroman (Post 1512132)
Sadly I won't make 60K this year as a captain thanks to the concessionary contract.

Huh? I'm getting displaced and after 10 months at CA pay (prior to displacement) will clear over $60K. I won't say where I am and where I will end... But over 60. Talking to other folks (that I know on a first name basis as reserve CA's) they have already cleared 60k. Don't talk about the downgrade without "ducking" but it's a number that isn't realistic. A CA making reserve all year, and being downgraded by seniority on the -200 (smallest jet) had already cleared $60k.

TheFly 11-02-2013 04:09 PM

The regional shortage might be short lived. The majors have thousands of applications on file, and when the music stops, those left standing will have few choices remaining. One of them being to go to a regional.

Cyborgmudhen 11-02-2013 04:16 PM


Originally Posted by TheFly (Post 1512140)
The regional shortage might be short lived. The majors have thousands of applications on file, and when the music stops, those left standing will have few choices remaining. One of them being to go to a regional.

??
Not sure I'm following you on this one.
Aren't many of those apps from folks who are currently flying for a regional ?
If not, then it seems clear that they are not interested in flying for a regional. If so, the would already be doing so.

Avroman 11-02-2013 05:57 PM


Originally Posted by higney85 (Post 1512135)
Huh? I'm getting displaced and after 10 months at CA pay (prior to displacement) will clear over $60K. I won't say where I am and where I will end... But over 60. Talking to other folks (that I know on a first name basis as reserve CA's) they have already cleared 60k. Don't talk about the downgrade without "ducking" but it's a number that isn't realistic. A CA making reserve all year, and being downgraded by seniority on the -200 (smallest jet) had already cleared $60k.

I sent all of my "bribe money" to the 401K to avoid the "ALPA tax" and as such, no I have not yet cleared 60K (reserve or CDO lines all year, refuse open time pick ups and junior mans, so it's been 75 hours every month). Will I by the end of the year? Maybe but for sure it will be yet another year making less than the year before. 4 years and counting, with a downgrade for the holidays to assure a 5 year in a row.


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