Actually looking for a little advice here. I have heard many horror stories of lateral moves not working and typically standing pat at your current regional works best, but I'm considering the idea given Eagle's new future (or lack thereof).

The way I see it anyone with a seniority number > 2000 is looking at a pretty uncertain future. Even if the concessions are voted in (god forbid) we're still looking at a fleet of 107 aircraft (47 CRJ / 60 ERJ) which is significantly smaller than what we have today. This means that even with the flow our relative seniority will stagnate until the staffing reaches levels more in line with that fleet size, in short upgrades are still quite a way off. As to the flow even at 50% of new hire classes we're looking at 6 years and 4000 pilots minimum hired at AA before our number is called (assuming the agreement goes as written).

So compare that to places like:
Skywest (stability)
Compass (playing the upgrade lottery)
PSA...haha just kidding

What do you guys think? Is it time to abandon ship? Thanks for the responses.

 

In think you should stay right there. I bet you'll really regret it when you see the final product from these talks

 

I want to believe this but I can't imagine management straying too far from their initial proposal.

 

I'm currently out on a trip with a captain who made a lateral move after 7 years (5 of being a captain) at another regional because he anticipatied things going way downhill fast for him there. He was right and it ended up being a good move for him. He wouldn't have fared well at his first regional. I'm sure there are hundreds of other people who have taken that gamble and lost it though too. The airlines are unpredictable and the regionals are even more unpredictable. If you do make a lateral move it will be a gamble. It could work out great or you could regret it in 10 years.

 

I came to the same conclusion and I'm leaving Eagle in January to go to Compass.

 

You've been correct before, even calling almost the exact proposal we just received from management. I would really like to believe something good is in store for us at Eagle, ideally something involving AA, but you know the proposal and the math of the current flow, it doesn't add up.

What I'm wondering is, do you have some concrete information we just don't know yet? Or is this betting on the outcome that APA gets those 175s? A lot is up in the air, hopefully it gets resolved sooner rather than later.

 

I stayed at Comair till the end. If I had it to do over again I would have left at the first sign of trouble. All of my friends that bailed early are captains and I am swinging their gear.

 

Yes.......

 

You also were in a market with an oversupply of pilots. An airline with average pilot age of 57. An airline that held a strike. An airline with a damaged name from a high profile accident. Had they kept you, you'd be in the middle of massive hiring due to mandatory retirements, have tons of employees collecting retirement benefits, all in the onset of a pilot shortage.
You were replaced by a much younger and cheaper regional. That dynamic probably wouldn't line up just right again in any of our lifetimes.

 

Come to SKW, I need more people junior to me.
Seriously, sometimes when you see the writing on the wall, you need to read it and take heed.