|
GAO report on "Great Pilot Shortage"
Is due out later today.
Until then... GAO Report: Airline Pilot Shortage? Not Clear - ABC News Regional airlines report difficulty over the past year in finding enough pilots to hire, according to a government watchdog report obtained by The Associated Press, but it isn't clear whether there is a shortage of pilots. Researchers found "mixed evidence" of a shortage, said the Government Accountability Office. A key economic indicator supports the emergence of a shortage, but two other indicators suggest the opposite is true. Of three studies reviewed by the GAO that examine the issue, "two point to the large number of qualified pilots that exist, but may be working abroad, in the military, or in another occupation, as evidence that there is adequate supply," the report said. The report, obtained late Thursday, was to be released Friday. The U.S. airline industry will need to hire 1,900 to 4,500 new pilots annually over the next 10 years due to an expected surge in retirements of pilots reaching age 65 and increased demand for air travel, the report said. Eleven out of 12 regional airlines failed to meet their hiring targets for entry-level pilots last year, the report said. However, no major airlines were experiencing problems finding pilots. Some airline officials did express concern that service to some cities might have to be cut back if their regional partners cannot hire enough pilots, the report said. Major airlines generally pay significantly higher salaries than regional carriers. The average starting salary for first officers at regional airlines is $22,400, according to the Air Line Pilots Association. "Data indicate that a large pool of qualified pilots exists relative to the projected demand, but whether such pilots are willing or available to work at wages being offered is unknown," the report said. And, the size of these pools of pilots has remained steady since 2000, the report said. There are currently 66,000 pilots working for U.S. airlines, but there are 109,465 currently active pilots with a first class medical certificate that are licensed to fly passengers, the report said. Plus, there are more than 100,000 other pilots with commercial licenses that might at some point choose to pursue an airline career, the report found. The unemployment rate for professional pilots is very low, only 2.7 percent. That would normally indicate a shortage, but there are other reasons to believe that may not be the case, according to the report. Average professional pilot salaries went down 9.5 percent from 2000 to 2012, while the number of pilots employed went up 12 percent. Both trends are inconsistent with a shortage, the report said. Airlines used to be able to hire first officers with as few as 250 hours of flying experience. New regulations that went into effect last year require that all airline pilots now have a minimum of 1,500 hours. Previously, only captains were required to have that much experience. Major carriers typically hire both captains and first officers with far more than 1,500 hours. But regional carriers often drop well below that when hiring entry-level first officers. The new regulations were required under an aviation safety law Congress passed more than three years ago in response to a 2009 crash of a regional airliner near Buffalo, N.Y., that was blamed on pilot error. All 49 people on board and a man on the ground were killed. A subsequent investigation revealed that the first officer had been paid only about $16,000 the previous year, which was her first year at the airline. The captain was earning about $63,000. The Continental Connection flight was operated by the now-defunct regional carrier Colgan Air Inc. The National Transportation Safety Board concluded that both pilots were suffering from fatigue, although the board stopped short of citing fatigue as a contributor to the crash. Neither pilot had sleep in a bed the night prior to the fatal flight. The captain appeared to have tried to nap in a pilot lounge where sleeping was discouraged. The first officer, who lived at home with her parents, commuted across the country over night in a jump seat in order to make the fatal flight. In congressional hearings afterward, some lawmakers questioned whether the pilots couldn't afford hotel rooms on their salaries. |
Here is the actual report:
U.S. GAO - Aviation Workforce: Current and Future Availability of Airline Pilots |
"Data indicate that a large pool of qualified pilots exists relative to the projected demand, but whether such pilots are willing or available to work at wages being offered is unknown"
I'll answer this question. Those of us who are qualified are absolutely UNWILLING to work at poverty wages after investing a HUGE amount of time, money, and effort for said qualifications. |
Originally Posted by Flying Ninja
(Post 1591900)
"Data indicate that a large pool of qualified pilots exists relative to the projected demand, but whether such pilots are willing or available to work at wages being offered is unknown"
I'll answer this question. Those of us who are qualified are absolutely UNWILLING to work at poverty wages after investing a HUGE amount of time, money, and effort for said qualifications. |
I'd like to know what percentage of certificated pilots are already employed at places with fair wages. Not everyone wants to be an airline pilot. I browsed through the article but I'd also like to know if they considered foreign issuance of commercial certificates/medicals. I know, at the small school I used to work at, we had hundreds of both each year.
|
Nice report, and another qualified source saying "there's no pilot shortage in America" or similar. US Regionals generally state that "we can't staff our airplanes", and yet they steadfastly refuse to raise base pay which is precisely what any company having trouble with staffing does. It makes them look like jokers frankly, and evidence is slowly coming to light the pilot shortage is a myth.
|
"Data indicate that a large pool of qualified pilots exists relative to the projected demand, but whether such pilots are willing or available to work at wages being offered is unknown" |
Originally Posted by Flying Ninja
(Post 1591900)
"Data indicate that a large pool of qualified pilots exists relative to the projected demand, but whether such pilots are willing or available to work at wages being offered is unknown"
I'll answer this question. Those of us who are qualified are absolutely UNWILLING to work at poverty wages after investing a HUGE amount of time, money, and effort for said qualifications. There is no pilot shortage..... There is a severe shortage of airlines worth working for however. |
I am very interested in seeing the new Republic TA.
I wonder what kind of first year pay(and top scale FO pay) is enough for someone to jump ship from other types of flying to a place like Republic? Is it $30 an hour first year? $40? How much should the top end be? $50? $60? Something tells me I'll be disappointed. |
Im one of those 1500 hr guys as well.. Need to spend some more thousands to up my multi time now for the same piece of plastic but at this point F it I guess :confused: The sad part is that I come to this forum everyday even before checking email just to see if there is anything to lookforward too other than just being depressed. Nothing yet I have to say. Credit to all those who have already taken the leap.
|
Originally Posted by ifly
(Post 1591913)
Many 300hr pilots will fly for free or take miserable wages just to get to the airlines due to SJS. Not many 1500hr pilots will fly for pennies. The 1500hr rule may be the best treatment for SJS. More work and experience requires more money. Airline management folks just don't get it.
|
Glad to hear the GAO gets it, and is not going to recommend opening the floodgates for H1B visas. I doubt that would do any good anyway, most foreign pilots have far better prospects at home or elsewhere abroad than a US regional.
|
Originally Posted by frmrdashtrash
(Post 1591927)
There is no pilot shortage..... There is a severe shortage of airlines worth working for however.
filler |
As a guy in his mid 30s with a family, I don't fly for the regionals because of pay.
I've started getting cold called. I'll keep with the King Air flying until either a Major calls, or the regionals get real with first year pay. As horrible as first year wages are for the RiddleKids with SJS and loans to pay living with Mom & Dad or 8 to a 2 bedroom apartment, it's downright impossible to live in a $1200/mo apartment (not unrealistic for needing a 2-3 br), feed my family and pay my student loans (still paying.. And no, it's not an aviation degree) nevermind eat or have a car on regional pay. Even with drilling in the reserves on every day off, it's still not enough to live on. 1st year Regional FO needs to go at least to the high 30s/low 40s with 2nd year being a substantial raise like it is at most majors to have a realistic chance of getting a lot of ex mil guys, unless they are either retired and have that cash flow, or DINK. |
These problems have been going for as long as pilots have been flying. I stopped back in the 1970s. While Viet Nam was winding down we got hit with the Oil Embargo. Pilot's were willing to work at anything. One friend was a former F4 Recon pilot and a Convair pilot for Texas International. Laid off went a long time working at Payless Shoes. He finally got a job flying a wheat farmer around in a Cherokee Six for three dollars an hour. After my third airline went broke I gave it up, not willing to work like that. Law has been much more stable and lucrative. I did miss the flying but thats life.
|
Originally Posted by rickair7777
(Post 1591941)
Glad to hear the GAO gets it, and is not going to recommend opening the floodgates for H1B visas. I doubt that would do any good anyway, most foreign pilots have far better prospects at home or elsewhere abroad than a US regional.
|
Originally Posted by soakingpilot
(Post 1591961)
Just adding something to this but if you earned 30K a year as a single guy in a western euro country what automatically will increase is QOL. I mean yeah 30k a year sux much more the starting 22K when you have to drive to work instead of hopping on the tram or pay for your healthcare or pay for your kids to go to a decent school etc.
|
Originally Posted by JamesNoBrakes
(Post 1591968)
Do you read, speak and understand the English language? I think I know what you are trying to say, but I'm not sure.
|
Originally Posted by ifly
(Post 1591913)
Many 300hr pilots will fly for free or take miserable wages just to get to the airlines due to SJS. Not many 1500hr pilots will fly for pennies. The 1500hr rule may be the best treatment for SJS. More work and experience requires more money. Airline management folks just don't get it.
The majority of those with Commercial certificates or better are already established professionals in other fields that make switching to entry-level regional F/O positions laughable. The dopes in airline management now know their situation, they are just in the misrepresentation/denial stage. Congress has no clue as usual and the tsunami wave is gaining speed and will slam into the regional airline beach party with far more force then many realize. In 18 months it will be a full blown crisis for many of these carriers and many small/mid-size towns air service is on borrowed time. You reap what you sow and the greedy airline managements have sown this successfully for decades, but as John McClain said. "the party's over, pal". :cool: |
Originally Posted by eaglefly
(Post 1591999)
The pool was drying up significantly well before the 1500 rule kicked in. The REAL reason for the shortage of entry-level regional first officers is that young college age people will not, do not or cannot shell out at least another $50,000 on top of standard college costs to get a $24,000/year job that treats them like garbage. Their parents cannot or will not cosign such economical nonsense.
The majority of those with Commercial certificates or better are already established professionals in other fields that make switching to entry-level regional F/O positions laughable. The dopes in airline management now know their situation, they are just in the misrepresentation/denial stage. Congress has no clue as usual and the tsunami wave is gaining speed and will slam into the regional airline beach party with far more force then many realize. In 18 months it will be a full blown crisis for many of these carriers and many small/mid-size towns air service is on borrowed time. You reap what you sow and the greedy airline managements have sown this successfully for decades, but as John McClain said. "the party's over, pal". :cool: |
They killed off Comair because they had a contract with a living wage and work rules. Karma. Hopefully soon the Comair contract will be the base from which the airlines improve upon.
|
Originally Posted by dirtysidedown
(Post 1591903)
I agree, i'm one of them. I'll just be flying my charter beechjet until something changes.
|
Originally Posted by pagey
(Post 1591934)
I am very interested in seeing the new Republic TA.
I wonder what kind of first year pay(and top scale FO pay) is enough for someone to jump ship from other types of flying to a place like Republic? Is it $30 an hour first year? $40? How much should the top end be? $50? $60? Something tells me I'll be disappointed. |
I am in my early 30s with two young kids. I am home every night, fly 300hrs a year and make around 100k a year. I have always dreamed of flying for the airlines, but looking back am so glad I never took the plunge to the regionals. I may be on the slower track to a job at the Majors but I am ok with that. At least I have had a liveable wage for the last 7 years. I hope wages go up, 40k first, 60k second, 80k third year, that is the bare minimum I would accept.
|
I'm glad all the 135/91 guys are chiming in here... I left the regionals recently after almost 7 years of slugging it out at the bottom ranks at 3 different carriers. Furloughed from 2 and left the last one. It was one of the most miserable periods of my life, but I just kept telling myself to hang on, that it'll get better. I landed a 135 job flying Citations and my QOL and pay almost tripled. I'm once again loving what I do. My worst day here is better than my best day at any of those regionals. There are some things I do miss, mainly the crews, but wouldn't ever go back to those places. I'd stop flying altogether. Not saying I won't ever go back to 121, but if I do it'll never be to another regional.
|
While supply/demand says pay should rise...
...$40/60/80k for the first three years as a regional jet FO is not a realistic expectation. And I say that as a guy that has made more in my last 6 years flying Part 91 than if I had stayed at AWAC and upgraded. |
I have +5000 hours. I was furloughed 6 years ago from a Regional. Since then, I have been employed flying a bug smasher and making +$60k/year with weekends off.... I do miss the RJ flying but there is no chance I'll go back to a Regional and start all over again at $20k/yr.
|
In the GAO report, page 32:
"For example, increasing recruiting requires fewer resources than raising wages; further recruitment efforts could also be halted if labor market conditions change, whereas wages, once raised, may not be easily lowered." Translation: Airline management has zero desire to raise wages. Page 33: "Improve wages and fringe benefits. Increasing wages will help increase the number of personnel willing to work in a particular position or occupation. However, employers are reluctant to do this because they may be forced to raise the wages of current employees as well. Further, unlike some other actions, once wages are raised, it is unlikely that they will be reduced later if hiring becomes less difficult." Translation: Airline management has a solution to this "pilot shortage" but prefers to find cost free way to solve this issue. Conclusion: Airline management could care less about their pilots. But they want to have their cake, and eat it in their mansions. |
It is nice to see the government calling airlines' bluff though.
|
Originally Posted by Flying Ninja
(Post 1592106)
In the GAO report, page 32:
"For example, increasing recruiting requires fewer resources than raising wages; further recruitment efforts could also be halted if labor market conditions change, whereas wages, once raised, may not be easily lowered." Translation: Airline management has zero desire to raise wages. Page 33: "Improve wages and fringe benefits. Increasing wages will help increase the number of personnel willing to work in a particular position or occupation. However, employers are reluctant to do this because they may be forced to raise the wages of current employees as well. Further, unlike some other actions, once wages are raised, it is unlikely that they will be reduced later if hiring becomes less difficult." Translation: Airline management has a solution to this "pilot shortage" but prefers to find cost free way to solve this issue. Conclusion: Airline management could care less about their pilots. But they want to have their cake, and eat it in their mansions. |
Originally Posted by BoilerUP
(Post 1592101)
While supply/demand says pay should rise...
...$40/60/80k for the first three years as a regional jet FO is not a realistic expectation. And I say that as a guy that has made more in my last 6 years flying Part 91 than if I had stayed at AWAC and upgraded. would a $35-40.00 hr first year be too much?...I prefer to be a CFI making 35k to 45K and coming back hm every night . |
Originally Posted by azapateiro1
(Post 1592155)
I agree, I do think airline would rather cxl flight than increasing the salary to pilot to these levels.
would a $35-40.00 hr first year be too much?...I prefer to be a CFI making 35k to 45K and coming back hm every night . http://i284.photobucket.com/albums/l...ps70b39299.jpg |
I have to ask why it is unrealistic to make 80k by year three. I think the real solution may be to not have such a huge gap in pay between the right seat and left seat, lets say 80k and 120k, maybe I am shooting for the stars, but I bet the airlines could do it tomorrow and make a profit still.
|
Originally Posted by Cubdriver
(Post 1592209)
Actually Boiler is a tad low (he said $40/60/80k). Here are the top paying salaries for new hires in the US (see link). Wages should match other professions. There is no reason new pilots should get less than the others, the cost of training is the same, $60k from day one is the typical salary.
Becoming a successful engineer takes a certain combination of intellectual capacity, willingness to work through difficult material, and interest in the field. Within the population of people who can become engineers (ie college freshmen), the percentage that will become engineers is fairly small - because most are weeded out by one of these hurdles. Hence, the "supply" of engineers is relatively small in a world where engineering expertise is increasingly valuable. In short, the cost of training has a weaker relationship to salary than the relative demand for a certain skillset. Of course if the cost of training gets too high (relative to the expected salary), fewer (rational) skill seekers will choose to participate in a given field. As a result of this and industry attrition and/or growth, the labor supply can become relatively more scarce. This is when elementary supply and demand concepts predict that wages will begin to increase, so as to satisfy equilibrium of supply and demand. And this is what so many regional pilots are betting on in the current environment. I hope it works out. But the real world isn't fairly represented by the vacuum in which undergrad econ is taught - there's a lot of friction here, perhaps most notably government regulation and the CPAs that regionals operate under. In others words, I don't think meaningful wage increases are likely anytime soon.
Originally Posted by Cubdriver
(Post 1592209)
But there is a glut of qualified pilots in the US and entry level wages are heavily depressed by the oversupply.
|
Originally Posted by waflyboy
(Post 1592286)
...I think you answered your own question... isn't this "the reason?"
|
FWIW, NBC News w/ Brian Williams just did about 15 sec. on the GAO report. The focus was on a pilot shortage driven by low pay for pilots at regional airlines. It mentioned that new pilots are paid äs little as $16,000 yearly with the average starting pay at 22K.
Seems like network news got the essential headline right. |
Originally Posted by Cubdriver
The average is $60k for a new recruit in the educated domestic workplace
|
Originally Posted by BoilerUP
(Post 1592323)
The link you posted to Forbes disputes that $60k is the average starting salary for college graduates with a bachelors degree.
http://i284.photobucket.com/albums/l...psdafc0321.jpg |
Originally Posted by Cubdriver
(Post 1592209)
Actually Boiler is a tad low (he said $40/60/80k). Here are the top paying salaries for new hires in the US (see link). Wages should match other professions. There is no reason new pilots should get less than the others, the cost of training is the same, $60k from day one is the typical salary. But there is a glut of qualified pilots in the US and entry level wages are heavily depressed by the oversupply.
http://i284.photobucket.com/albums/l...ps70b39299.jpg Flying isn't even in the same category as the jobs you've listed. We're more on the blue-collar, skilled labor side of things. It's clear to me that many of the pilots I've worked with wouldn't even be capable of completing the education necessary to do something like computer or aerospace engineering. All kinds of people enjoy flying and have chosen to make a career of it, but the barrier to entry is also much lower than certain STEM careers. Airline first officers should be paid more, but when I consider the realities of what we do, it seems that the high end of the pay scale should be lowered. The idea of a $200,000 base salary airline captain just doesn't make sense to me when I consider the vast amount of knowledge and experience required for other jobs that pay slightly less. |
Originally Posted by RV5M
The idea of a $200,000 base salary airline captain just doesn't make sense to me when I consider the vast amount of knowledge and experience required for other jobs that pay slightly less.
Just a bunch of lunch pail carrying button pushers...assembly line workers of the sky with no education or knowledge required. So easy a caveman can do it. |
| All times are GMT -8. The time now is 06:37 PM. |
Website Copyright © 2026 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands