Nothing's going to double, we're just in the up cycle right now. Mesa and PSA are still filling large classes, and Great Lakes is still in business. Where's the shortage? Sure there is hiring, but a shift in the economy, parking of some planes etc, and the music will stop again. The airlines wi just hand out bonuses and dangle that carrot some more to get through this period.

 

Jet fuel costs to double in 5 years!

 

This is said by president and founder of Florida aviation academy... It sounds like a sales pitch to get new pilots to his flight school so he doesnt go out of business. Id say the same if I was in his shoes and predict some wild double pay increase in the future. I wont believe it until I see it and IF it does happen that means mostly all flying will be mainline flying because the regional model will 100% collapse. Also depends on what the future voting results are for Eagle and RAH... If they pass thier TA's they approve of more whipsawing and low wages and it will never change!

 

First of all let me preface my comments with this. I know Jack personally. He's as straight forward a shooter as they come. He does not run a "puppy mill". He's also flown in various a/c & positions around the world and has a wealth of industry experience. I got all of my ratings at FAA in 11 weeks at his school. 2 lessons a day/6 days a week & cross country time on Sundays. He primarily markets to European mpl who come here, get their ratings up to comm multi and return to Europe to a 320. I personally know guys that went to his school and are now at UAL, SWA, Spirit, JetBlue and I'm at DAL.

The doubling of the wages in 5 years IMHO might be a stretch, but not too far off. I see the current regional model collapsing. The affiliated regional will be liquidated and the assets transferred to the major partner/owner. This will result in MUCH more hiring at mainline than projected just for retirements. So the average wage WILL go up. Instead of 50% of the lift nationwide being done on a "C" scale, most all of it above a CR700 type will be at mainline at mainline wages. I think the first hint of this happening will come layer this year/early next at DAL in our C2015 negotiations. We currently have CR900/Emb195 rates but they are too high. Look for those to be lowered and CR700 rates added.

PSA is an anomaly at this point. As long as Eagle & Expressjet hold the line good things will start happening fast. This is only 3/11 & I'm up to 124hrs credit for the month. Dal has waited too long to hire & our DCI carriers are canceling flights due to staffing. This is just the tip. It'll be repeated eventually at AA & UAL as well. They've all waited too long to hire AND there's no one on the pipeline to replace the right seat regional guys.

THIS is why Jack said what he said. I don't think he's too far off. Anyone getting into aviation right now will have a stellar career.

All the Regional guys have to do to keep the snowball rolling is VOTE NO!!!

 

Well I suppose if you consider that going from first year regional FO to five year RJ Capt he may be right but that is kind of a stretch. Does any regional have a five year upgrade?

Sounds like another desperate snake oil salesman to me. Oh, and if I was in his shoes I WOULD NOT be making such wild claims. One's own misery is still no reason to lie, cheat, and steal.

 

In the semi-sleezy world of real estate, it's illegal to sell a home and make the promise that the value of the property will increase in the future. I guess more than a few people have been burned by promises that didn't pan out they way they were sold.

Interesting how it's illegal to make a false representation with respect to property, but not with someones career and livelyhood.

I was an independent flight instructor for a long time before moving to the airlines, and I NEVER, EVER sold any one the glittery dream of being an airline pilot. Frankly, I had to dispense some reality that crushed a few dreams from time to time.

If I wanted to avoid any legal problems in the future, I'd take that article down fast, or at least edit it so that it was based on FACT not profit driven conjecture.

 

Look at the source this guy is just trying to up his enrollment.

 

You just gave the definition of what a "pilot mill" is in your explanation of your experience with this school. All of your FAA ratings in 11 weeks! Flying 7 days a week. To me, that is a "pilot mill"

 

Better than stretching it out over years...continuity is king.

 

He sounds like Kit Darby's replacement...

Guess all the guys/gals from the "what would it take me to come back thread" will be back in 5 years. There goes the pilot shortage...

I don't think there will be any pay raises. Just bigger jets.