Correct me if I'm wrong but others have made just about the same statement over the past years .

Btw curious as to how the 145 handles ?

Thin-skinned? The 145 handles just fine? And me speaking my mind is gonna keep me in it forever, right. GMAMFB

Thin skinned ? nope

Well, to his credit, the airline biz was going gangbusters in 89.

Take a look at the list of airlines that were around, and the amount they were hiring. A causal read of an old FAPA newsletter (no intrawebz back then) shows lots of places, including cargo, were hiring. The majors were hiring 100/mo, and there were more than 4.

Lots of 3 man cockpits still in the fleets. There were retirements AND organic growth, which meant a rapidly mobile list.

It was a great time to be a CFI. Lot of people training, so you could grab 80 hours/mo. Training was not expensive....relatively anyway. Probably 12k zero to hero, which is about 24k today. Mom'n'Pop schools were growing everywhere into 30-40 plane operations. In a little over a year, you got your ticket punched at 1200 hours. Every school had a pipeline to the cargo outfits, so you moved right on to single engine freight, followed by a twin gig.

No angst. Everyone was moving up.

Couple hundred hours later, your buds hooked you up with a job flying at a commuter. No ATP rule required...everyone already had 1500 hours. No 300 hour wonders here.

A year and a half later, you were a captain on a BE-99, Metro, J-ball or maybe one of those new Saab 340s. You had 3,000 hours or so, and the majors were looking pretty good.

Then 91 happened and Gulf War 1. Guys then, like now, were stuck in the pipeline as everything ground to a halt. Fleets starting shrinking, absorbing any retirements, then the furloughs started. Just about the time things got a little bit better, the RJ scourge happened in 92.

Things got slightly better by around the end of 95, but any growth the mainline carriers had were severely tempered by outsourcing and the attrition of the 3 man cockpits. The number of carriers were down, but UPS, SWA and FedEx picked up some of the slack. Still, it was a nice little run from probably 96 to 2001, but nowhere near the numbers of the late 80s.

Then the lost decade happened (in reality, it's more like the lost baker's dozen).

Things look brightest right until the train hits you.

Nu

His quote wasn't that far off. All major airlines did have 30 year old captains. They just happened to be at the regionals when the majors let the out sourcing happen.

I think it's good for everyone, especially noobs, to be reminded that the current looming "pilot shortage" is just a symptom of the natural cycle...which normally ends in global economic catastrophe, bankruptcies, and mass furloughs.

Might want to think twice before taking out that $180K signature loan for riddle tuition.

I think this could start to come true. As airlines are unable to staff aircraft due to lack of FO's, they start eliminating airplanes and routes. This leads to a larger than needed pilot head count. Word on the street (the forum) is Silver may be laying off pilots now.

You would never think so, but pilot shortage could lead to pilot furloughs at some carriers. The smaller regional airlines may end up closing their doors.

It is probably going to play out just like the people who actually control the economy want, oh my pilot shortage, lets bring in 3rd world pilots, obviously we don't have Americans that can do this job....

Happened in IT industry - how do I know - dial a tech support line and talk to, Philippines, India, etc...



.

The difference is this: there's a plentiful supply of foreign computer geeks (willing to work for poverty wages) for BOTH American and Non-American companies to draw from but there is NOT a plentiful supply of foreign pilots (willing to work for poverty wages) for EITHER American or Non-American companies to draw from.

Ok I may agree - but look at Norwegian and the Thai pilots?

Is that the hole in the dyke?