They don't need us like we think they do
09-07-2014 | 03:27 PM
#31
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: May 2009
Posts: 2,035
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We're not talking about one 747 a week to DTW. We're talking about replacing 6 50-seat RJ's a day (300 seats) and/or 4 76-seat RJ's a day (304 seats) with 3 717's a day (300 seats) on routes that used to be serviced by mainline 737's and DC-9's. As UAL AA and DL reduce frequency but keep seat counts stabile, pax will move back to mainline.
And I agree, business travelers do care about frequency. But they care more about reliability, and the last thing they want is to be sitting on the ramp in LGA or JFK waiting for a crew until their flight cancels.
Pilot availability is becoming more important than fuel costs. $130/BBL oil made 50 and even 76 seaters unprofitable. In addition, now that the big 3 are profitable, they look to reliability to ensure that business travelers can make their flight and get to their destination as planned. As DCI carriers lose pilots, they cancel flights, get penalized by mainline, lose future CPA's and shrink. Displacements and downgrades motivate more pilots to bail, which lowers their reliability even further. That's why DL is putting mainline 717's back on the shuttle. DL is rumored to be looking for even more 717's and RA was quoted in AW&S that he was interested in the C-series, which means that the E-190/175E2's may be in play. If that happens, it will spell the end of the DCI model as it currently stands. Like you said, mainline has too much invested in the hub-spoke system to let DCI problems affect it's reliability.
The only 50 seaters that will be flying 20 years from now will be in China.
Again, just my opinion. The goal is to bring all flying and RJ pilots who successfully interview to mainline, isn't it?
And I agree, business travelers do care about frequency. But they care more about reliability, and the last thing they want is to be sitting on the ramp in LGA or JFK waiting for a crew until their flight cancels.
Pilot availability is becoming more important than fuel costs. $130/BBL oil made 50 and even 76 seaters unprofitable. In addition, now that the big 3 are profitable, they look to reliability to ensure that business travelers can make their flight and get to their destination as planned. As DCI carriers lose pilots, they cancel flights, get penalized by mainline, lose future CPA's and shrink. Displacements and downgrades motivate more pilots to bail, which lowers their reliability even further. That's why DL is putting mainline 717's back on the shuttle. DL is rumored to be looking for even more 717's and RA was quoted in AW&S that he was interested in the C-series, which means that the E-190/175E2's may be in play. If that happens, it will spell the end of the DCI model as it currently stands. Like you said, mainline has too much invested in the hub-spoke system to let DCI problems affect it's reliability.
The only 50 seaters that will be flying 20 years from now will be in China.
Again, just my opinion. The goal is to bring all flying and RJ pilots who successfully interview to mainline, isn't it?
Hmmm, seems like the crewing issues started after the fake shamruptcy at Endeavor. If they were so "concerned" about reliability they would be increasing pay and benefits, not doing their very best to continue the slide in our profession, which is the cause of their issue with staffing!
P.S. Oil has not been close to $130.00 a barrel for a long time, it's been running close to $40.00 a barrel less than that...
09-07-2014 | 05:04 PM
#32
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Joined: Oct 2009
Posts: 1,154
Likes: 192
Hmmm, seems like the crewing issues started after the fake shamruptcy at Endeavor. If they were so "concerned" about reliability they would be increasing pay and benefits, not doing their very best to continue the slide in our profession, which is the cause of their issue with staffing!
P.S. Oil has not been close to $130.00 a barrel for a long time, it's been running close to $40.00 a barrel less than that...
P.S. Oil has not been close to $130.00 a barrel for a long time, it's been running close to $40.00 a barrel less than that...
In spite of oil prices north of 100, world oil production has been flat. (rising about 1% in that time period). It is beginning to look as though the world economy can't absorb any higher price without going into recession. We have basically an economic oil extraction governor.
Here's the rub...it takes 100/bl oil just to keep what we have going. (4 to 10% additional oil production is required EACH YEAR to replace the drop in production from existing fields.) The 7 major publicly held oil companies are drastically reducing their capital investment ...starting this year...as they have found diminishing return in new oil.
In order to continue to bring new production on line, oil producers need higher prices (the cheap oil has already been exploited...we are trying to extract oil in extreme conditions, which takes lots and lots of money). The current prices aren't high enough to support the ever increasing difficulties in production. Unfortunately any higher prices will tank the world economy.....for the near term, and possibly long term, check and mate.
We are going to need a lot less pilots as we bump up against these natural limits to growth.
09-07-2014 | 05:32 PM
#33
Bracing for Fallacies
Joined: Jul 2007
Posts: 3,543
Likes: 0
From: In favor of good things, not in favor of bad things
For what it's worth....oil (Brent) has averaged over $100/BL for some years now.
In spite of oil prices north of 100, world oil production has been flat. (rising about 1% in that time period). It is beginning to look as though the world economy can't absorb any higher price without going into recession. We have basically an economic oil extraction governor.
Here's the rub...it takes 100/bl oil just to keep what we have going. (4 to 10% additional oil production is required EACH YEAR to replace the drop in production from existing fields.) The 7 major publicly held oil companies are drastically reducing their capital investment ...starting this year...as they have found diminishing return in new oil.
In order to continue to bring new production on line, oil producers need higher prices (the cheap oil has already been exploited...we are trying to extract oil in extreme conditions, which takes lots and lots of money). The current prices aren't high enough to support the ever increasing difficulties in production. Unfortunately any higher prices will tank the world economy.....for the near term, and possibly long term, check and mate.
We are going to need a lot less pilots as we bump up against these natural limits to growth.
In spite of oil prices north of 100, world oil production has been flat. (rising about 1% in that time period). It is beginning to look as though the world economy can't absorb any higher price without going into recession. We have basically an economic oil extraction governor.
Here's the rub...it takes 100/bl oil just to keep what we have going. (4 to 10% additional oil production is required EACH YEAR to replace the drop in production from existing fields.) The 7 major publicly held oil companies are drastically reducing their capital investment ...starting this year...as they have found diminishing return in new oil.
In order to continue to bring new production on line, oil producers need higher prices (the cheap oil has already been exploited...we are trying to extract oil in extreme conditions, which takes lots and lots of money). The current prices aren't high enough to support the ever increasing difficulties in production. Unfortunately any higher prices will tank the world economy.....for the near term, and possibly long term, check and mate.
We are going to need a lot less pilots as we bump up against these natural limits to growth.
Thanks for sharing! I keep hearing about "peak oil" and things of that nature. I also hear about new sources to create fuel like biofuels and algae. Supposedly algae can produce quite a bit of fuel. Maybe as fossil fuels become more scarce, more effort and resources will go into new fuel development. And we'll all live happily ever after. At a major.
09-07-2014 | 05:33 PM
#34
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Feb 2013
Posts: 3,154
Likes: 18
For what it's worth....oil (Brent) has averaged over $100/BL for some years now.
In spite of oil prices north of 100, world oil production has been flat. (rising about 1% in that time period). It is beginning to look as though the world economy can't absorb any higher price without going into recession. We have basically an economic oil extraction governor.
Here's the rub...it takes 100/bl oil just to keep what we have going. (4 to 10% additional oil production is required EACH YEAR to replace the drop in production from existing fields.) The 7 major publicly held oil companies are drastically reducing their capital investment ...starting this year...as they have found diminishing return in new oil.
In order to continue to bring new production on line, oil producers need higher prices (the cheap oil has already been exploited...we are trying to extract oil in extreme conditions, which takes lots and lots of money). The current prices aren't high enough to support the ever increasing difficulties in production. Unfortunately any higher prices will tank the world economy.....for the near term, and possibly long term, check and mate.
We are going to need a lot less pilots as we bump up against these natural limits to growth.
In spite of oil prices north of 100, world oil production has been flat. (rising about 1% in that time period). It is beginning to look as though the world economy can't absorb any higher price without going into recession. We have basically an economic oil extraction governor.
Here's the rub...it takes 100/bl oil just to keep what we have going. (4 to 10% additional oil production is required EACH YEAR to replace the drop in production from existing fields.) The 7 major publicly held oil companies are drastically reducing their capital investment ...starting this year...as they have found diminishing return in new oil.
In order to continue to bring new production on line, oil producers need higher prices (the cheap oil has already been exploited...we are trying to extract oil in extreme conditions, which takes lots and lots of money). The current prices aren't high enough to support the ever increasing difficulties in production. Unfortunately any higher prices will tank the world economy.....for the near term, and possibly long term, check and mate.
We are going to need a lot less pilots as we bump up against these natural limits to growth.
09-07-2014 | 05:50 PM
#35
Line Holder
Joined: Oct 2009
Posts: 1,154
Likes: 192
Some truth to that.
09-07-2014 | 06:04 PM
#36
Line Holder
Joined: Oct 2009
Posts: 1,154
Likes: 192
Sorry...hit a random button and posted the first line above....
some truth to what you say.Viewed another way, it has created an artificial demand for dollars as , for all intents and purposes, all oil is paid for in dollars. One might even argue that oil is the Fort Knox underpinning of the dollar. The world economy has been kept from collapse by printing trillions of dollars and then loaning it out to various governments(especially ours) at almost zero interest. It is this almost free money that has fueled the ability to keep oil production as high as it's been.
Unfortunately no one knows how to get off the ride on this tiger. If interest rates rise or available money lessens, a sharp reduction in the extraction of oil will soon follow.A sharp reduction in the worlds GDP would then follow that.
The cheap oil is gone.This is a physical reality that our industrial world has yet to come to terms with.
While the entire world economy runs on oil, the industry you and I work in is one of the more vulnerable.
some truth to what you say.Viewed another way, it has created an artificial demand for dollars as , for all intents and purposes, all oil is paid for in dollars. One might even argue that oil is the Fort Knox underpinning of the dollar. The world economy has been kept from collapse by printing trillions of dollars and then loaning it out to various governments(especially ours) at almost zero interest. It is this almost free money that has fueled the ability to keep oil production as high as it's been.
Unfortunately no one knows how to get off the ride on this tiger. If interest rates rise or available money lessens, a sharp reduction in the extraction of oil will soon follow.A sharp reduction in the worlds GDP would then follow that.
The cheap oil is gone.This is a physical reality that our industrial world has yet to come to terms with.
While the entire world economy runs on oil, the industry you and I work in is one of the more vulnerable.
09-07-2014 | 06:28 PM
#37
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: May 2009
Posts: 2,035
Likes: 0
For what it's worth....oil (Brent) has averaged over $100/BL for some years now.
In spite of oil prices north of 100, world oil production has been flat. (rising about 1% in that time period). It is beginning to look as though the world economy can't absorb any higher price without going into recession. We have basically an economic oil extraction governor.
Here's the rub...it takes 100/bl oil just to keep what we have going. (4 to 10% additional oil production is required EACH YEAR to replace the drop in production from existing fields.) The 7 major publicly held oil companies are drastically reducing their capital investment ...starting this year...as they have found diminishing return in new oil.
In order to continue to bring new production on line, oil producers need higher prices (the cheap oil has already been exploited...we are trying to extract oil in extreme conditions, which takes lots and lots of money). The current prices aren't high enough to support the ever increasing difficulties in production. Unfortunately any higher prices will tank the world economy.....for the near term, and possibly long term, check and mate.
We are going to need a lot less pilots as we bump up against these natural limits to growth.
In spite of oil prices north of 100, world oil production has been flat. (rising about 1% in that time period). It is beginning to look as though the world economy can't absorb any higher price without going into recession. We have basically an economic oil extraction governor.
Here's the rub...it takes 100/bl oil just to keep what we have going. (4 to 10% additional oil production is required EACH YEAR to replace the drop in production from existing fields.) The 7 major publicly held oil companies are drastically reducing their capital investment ...starting this year...as they have found diminishing return in new oil.
In order to continue to bring new production on line, oil producers need higher prices (the cheap oil has already been exploited...we are trying to extract oil in extreme conditions, which takes lots and lots of money). The current prices aren't high enough to support the ever increasing difficulties in production. Unfortunately any higher prices will tank the world economy.....for the near term, and possibly long term, check and mate.
We are going to need a lot less pilots as we bump up against these natural limits to growth.
West Texas crude, has been consistently in the low to mid 90 dollars a barrel. The US has been ramping up oil and natural gas production considerably over the last several years, and can continue to increase production and make a profit at prices at and above $80 per barrel.
09-07-2014 | 06:47 PM
#38
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Feb 2013
Posts: 3,154
Likes: 18
Sorry...hit a random button and posted the first line above....
some truth to what you say.Viewed another way, it has created an artificial demand for dollars as , for all intents and purposes, all oil is paid for in dollars. One might even argue that oil is the Fort Knox underpinning of the dollar. The world economy has been kept from collapse by printing trillions of dollars and then loaning it out to various governments(especially ours) at almost zero interest. It is this almost free money that has fueled the ability to keep oil production as high as it's been.
Unfortunately no one knows how to get off the ride on this tiger. If interest rates rise or available money lessens, a sharp reduction in the extraction of oil will soon follow.A sharp reduction in the worlds GDP would then follow that.
The cheap oil is gone.This is a physical reality that our industrial world has yet to come to terms with.
While the entire world economy runs on oil, the industry you and I work in is one of the more vulnerable.
some truth to what you say.Viewed another way, it has created an artificial demand for dollars as , for all intents and purposes, all oil is paid for in dollars. One might even argue that oil is the Fort Knox underpinning of the dollar. The world economy has been kept from collapse by printing trillions of dollars and then loaning it out to various governments(especially ours) at almost zero interest. It is this almost free money that has fueled the ability to keep oil production as high as it's been.
Unfortunately no one knows how to get off the ride on this tiger. If interest rates rise or available money lessens, a sharp reduction in the extraction of oil will soon follow.A sharp reduction in the worlds GDP would then follow that.
The cheap oil is gone.This is a physical reality that our industrial world has yet to come to terms with.
While the entire world economy runs on oil, the industry you and I work in is one of the more vulnerable.
I'm not sure at this point the debt can be paid back. Interest on the debt alone is the value of an entire federal program. That makes it nearly impossible to raise interest rates now without a default. We can't seem to stop quantitative easing either.
09-07-2014 | 07:02 PM
#39
Works Every Weekend
Joined: Apr 2006
Posts: 1,210
Likes: 0
09-07-2014 | 07:46 PM
#40
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Nov 2011
Posts: 4,169
Likes: 97
From: Volleyball Player
West Texas crude, has been consistently in the low to mid 90 dollars a barrel. The US has been ramping up oil and natural gas production considerably over the last several years, and can continue to increase production and make a profit at prices at and above $80 per barrel.
