-12000 pilots would not cover the mainline attrition over the next 8 years.
-Some of the 12000 will retire, go to other industries, go overseas, corporate, freight...
-Some of the 12000 will go on to fly larger regional jets

This whole discussion is pretty odd.


The market will support a given capacity. Call it 100%. Regional airlines are currently providing a large percentage of that capacity with inefficient 50-seat airplanes. Yes, they will eventually go away. And yes, they will have to be replaced. From the viewpoint of DAL/AMR/UAL... the last thing you want is to allow a vacuum of service to appear, allowing for the entry of newer and lower-cost competitors that will grow aggressively. See SWA the last 3 decades.

If you have a gap between the capacity the airlines provide, and the service the market will support, someone will step up to provide that service.

Yes, 50-seat jets might be well on their way to the boneyard, but there will be something that is used to replace that capacity. If it's large regional jets, they we're going to have a problem. If it's small mainline aircraft, they it's going to be excellent for pilots. It's all in the hands of those pilots at legacy carriers, and how they vote on the issue of scope.


With capacity in mind, this is how the math should look:

+/- 1200 aircraft, assuming an average of 50 seats = 60,000 seats. If we assume they'll be replaced by 76-seaters like Q400's or E-175's, then...

60,000/76 = 790 aircraft. 1200 - 790 = 410 fewer aircraft. 10 pilots per airplane, and 4,100 fewer pilots required. Not 12,000.



And that's assuming that your RJ-700/E-175 can actually serve all of the small airports that currently have DHC-8 or Brasilia service. I can think of several runways that we operate the Q from that an RJ likely wouldn't be able to.





Now stop and realize that all of this math is only valid if none of the airlines grow. None of them, not one bit.

The regional shortage is a decade or more long problem, we are only in the first year. Check back in 5 years, when problems really start to stack up.

$260K to go to ERAU.....in 10 years it will be over $600K at current college inflation rates.

thank god for the 12/4 cap then because after 8 years in the right seat i will still be making fourth year pay which should be about 29k per year in ten years to pay off the ERAU 600k debt.

Let's take a look at some wholly-owneds, like Endeavor first; Attrition of about 50 pilots a month, which could very easily increase to 60 plus, with new hire classes in the low single digits per month. The airline will cease to exist in what, a year and a half?

What will Delta do? Merge Endeavor with another regional? Shut Endeavor down, and transfer the planes to another regional? Raise pay? (seems least likely scenario of all). The EtD is a slap in the face and a flop, especially when other wholly owneds in the AA brand are being offered straight flows for everyone-newhires, and *gasp* current pilots who have been getting the job done for years. AA offered this to Envoy, now Piedmont, and it looks like the PSA MEC will push for an all inclusive flow as well---and I bet AA managment will sign off on that if they want to staff all those new & lightly used RJs that PSA is gaining.

Shoot, I am pretty sure it was AA mainline pilots pushing for flows for their regional compadres. Nice to see support not jeering from mainline pilots towards their fellow regional pilots. I believe the article was titled something like "Sinkrate, Arresting the Professional Descent". Found it; https://public.alliedpilots.org/APA/...leticket=LIz9v.

So I'm sitting here scratching my head....is Delta basically letting their regionals go? Do they not care that their only regional feeders that can staff (Compass, SKW) are the regionals also doing feed for Delta competitors? Apparently Delta wants to reset SkyWest rates, but why would SkyWest agree?

People say flows don't work. Well look at Compass. It (was*) a guaranteed mainline job plus movement while you're at a regional. Of course this attracts people! I certainly would like to see flying go back mainline, but is management going to just take the flying back without a fight? Without enticements like flows? Its happening now with AA.

* I realize flows are now ended, but the movement lasts long after.

I understand that 9E pilots feel betrayed by EtD, especially FO's who see the downgrades and know their chance to serve 2 yrs in the left seat before getting their shot at the SSP keeps moving further down the road, I get that. I also felt betrayed by my Comair "compadres" after I was furloughed, but I realize that those decisions were made by a very few individuals..and I had to get over it and move on. Hopefully, they can too.

Unfortunately, EtD is what it is and I seriously doubt that DL will ever offer a straight "flow" to mainline like AA. But, correct me if I'm wrong, every current 9E pilot will get an SSP and a chance to move on to DL before any EtD new hire. If it's not acceptable to current 9E guys then they will vote with their feet and DL will lose out on an obviously very qualified pool of potential DL new hires.

But like I said before, there will be a time in the near future when all the legacy's will be hiring FO's off the street without 121 TPIC. DL has 11k apps on file. I'm sure those 11k pilots also have their apps in with everyone else. Current hiring is about 3k a year across the board. That means that the entire pool of competitive apps will be gone in less than 4 years. That also means that the 9E list will shrink even faster than it is now, and 9E FO 's will move to the left seat faster than they think and subsequently move on to DL through the SSP before any EtD guys. I think that's why DL is focusing on the 121 entry level pilots with the EtD vs a straight flow for current 9E guys at the top of the list..they expect that most of those guys will have moved on to the left seat with DL in sight, or some other legacy/LCC instead of waiting for DL.

Either way, the 9E list shrinks exponentially, and if they can't get current 9E FO's to stick it out and stabilize their manning for 81 -900's and/or get EtD new hires to fill classes, I think you're right..9E will be gone.

Interesting,
There was a study done about 10 years ago, Purdue or one of the aviation colleges. It was based on frequency vs seat capacity. Very detailed and used actual airline/DOT/FAA data points. The determination was, frequency has a very large impact on market share. Airlines are statistically driven, and as such, does anyone really think, if RJs were so inefficient that the airlines would still be using them? Want a better magic 8ball predictor of the future? Stop thinking like a pilot and start thinking like a manager of people moving business. Make no mistake, airlines do what works, right up until it doesn't, and then things change. Pilot shortage? Take a look at the bottom of the process, student pilot certificates, then progress to commercial mel. The stats are alarming, even a few percentile point off the norm is huge. Look at things like the volume of GA hours flown, cost of piston overhaul then add the cost of AVgas, I have seen $7.00+ at a pump. Factor in a struggling economy, and shrinking middle class and the indications are fairly clear. Only people with means will be training and flying, and people with means don't do the "Flying Miss Daisy" thing. Think about the hiring stats from 2 years ago.

So will Delta be happy flying RJs at mainline rates by mainline pilots while AA and possibly United and Alaska still do a ton of RJ flying at RJ rates? Will Delta be happy sending Endeavor RJs to higher cost regionals? These are things I wonder and when I follow the dollars, I just cannot believe management will do that.

Yes, Endeavor folks have a guaranteed interview, but that requires being a captain. No one is coming. No one can upgrade. Juxtapose that with carriers offering a flow to everybody. A mainline spot is awaiting you, and the seniority list will move. Who do you choose?

I and probably most regional guys understand your frustration at being furloughed in the regional boom. However, what are we supposed to do about it? We can't even get pilots to steer clear of one or two regionals to show some semblance of unity. Not even for a few months!!

Shoot, I had once thought I'd avoid promoting the regional rat race, and stay part 135. After running into many legacy pilots and their children I realized quickly I had about a snowball's chance at making an LCC or major. Every child of a major airline pilot that I met who followed in their parent's footsteps flew for the military or the regionals. Maybe you know some offspring of major pilots who fly corporate or freight dog it for a career, but I personally don't.

Yes, DL is trying to get ahead of the curve and bring all flying back to mainline because they know that in the long term, there won't be any pilots left at the RJ level for AA and UAL to fly those outsourced jets at RJ rates. They'll all be at the Legacy/LCC of their choice making mainline pay.

We haven't even started to retire in significant numbers at mainline. In 2016, DL will average 600 mandatory retirements per year...and that will continue for over 10 yrs. Once the floodgates open at all the legacy's, the only outsourced "feeder" flying will be Q400's flying into short fields like Pete2800 mentioned earlier.

Whether the -900's come with the pilots, I don't know. I guess it depends on the fuel cost/frequency debate mentioned above. If the leases aren't due to expire within the short term, yes..I think large RJ's will come to mainline or they'll buy a suitable replacement.

Just flew a trip with a very senior captain whose sons both flew for Ameriflight and just got on with SKW. They're following in your footsteps and will be raising the gear for you at mainline sometime in the next decade. They think the RJ is a stepping stone to the majors like you probably did..and you were right.

Its just took an extra decade for everyone currently on the property in an RJ..and it's gonna be painful like the it was for mainline furloughees after 9/11..but I really think the whole RJ model is breaking down and you'll have the chance to move on to the next big thing sooner than you think.

Here are some of my concerns: all of us pilots know there are big retirement numbers, but it seems that management was behind the 8 ball as usual with giving the go ahead on hiring at the majors. So now there is tons of open time because of the staffing levels. Could have been avoided.

Also, we are dealing with management, no matter how much they plead they are different than in the past, do they ever really change? They willingly swelled the regionals at the expense of mainline jobs without apology. We trust them now?

Next management has a strategy of staffing regionals with pay cuts and caps while punching large pilot groups straight in the junk. Then very publicly and loudly slam the ATP law for hurting their staffing. Really?!


Though they do have an important job, these are all reasons I don't trust management's intentions or grip with reality. Nor do I trust they actually want to do away with the regionals. I know flows are imperfect, but it seems like a way out and upward for pilots versus facing the unknown.

I respect that airlines want to have say in who they hire, but maybe it is time to acknowlede there is a difference between regional and mainline newhires. Let's admit not everyone is a Chuck Yeager (I'm not!) but their skill set and work ethic is important to the parent major. Let's bring regional pilots in house at majors where the full resources of said major can be used to support, develop, and professionally educate the newbies who will likely be only able to bid RJ flying anyways. This "us" versus "them" between mainline and regional pilots, and especially regional versus regional, does pilots no good!