Pilot Shortage
 

Posted this in an airline specific thread, but it probably deserves it's own for full discussion.

RAA Pilot Shortage 2012
http://www.raa.org/Portals/0/Pubs/RH...024%202012.pdf

RAA Pilot Shortage 2013
http://www.raa.org/LinkClick.aspx?fi...id=176&mid=647
(great charts)

RAA Pilot Shortage 2014
http://www.raa.org/Portals/0/2014%20...ay3_2014_2.pdf


Bedford reported they had to interview 1,000 elligible candidates to find 90 that were hirable. Where do you think the other 910 went to work? That was in 2012-2013. It's becoming harder now.


Here's Garton talking about it from 2012 (noteworthy stuff at 5:20, 7:50 & 10:16)
RAA Chairman Dan Garton addresses attendees of the 37th Annual Convention - YouTube


Here's Bedford talking about it from mid 2014 (noteworthy 1:15, 1:35, 3:25 is Huge, 5:10 big also, 8:35 FAA & FO Quals, 11:25 Bridge Programs, 15: GAO, 23:23 would have been better to not alienate labor, 24:50 PILOT SALARY)
RAA 2014 Bedford - YouTube


Opinion rant follows:
Filling classes is meaninless. It's graduating certificated part 121 pilots to sit in the seats and retaining them that counts. The attition rates are obvious. Creating fear in our junior pilots to get them to run from RAH, XJT or ENY is just their way of trying to recycle the pool of available pilots. Fear is their greatest weapon. An informed pilot group is THEIR greatest fear.


and they're taking their message to the hill....
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: RAA asks Congress & FAA to return emphasis on quality versus quantity hours; details small community air service threat > Regional Airline Association > RAA Headlines


so should we.

If RAH truly wanted to fill seats, they wouldn't turn away 9/10 candidates.

This is RAA propaganda! From what I hear BB is pushing for a repeal of the ATP requirement, so he can continue to bend pilots over

I'm new to the industry, what does he mean when he said they tried to increase FO pay and the pilots said no?

He means they tried to offer them a contract with raises that brought them to the top third of the regional industry; but did not fix any of the other massive deficiancies in the contract that expired in 2007. They have been without a contract since then, and management offered NOTHING for the seven years without a contract.

You should probably read and view it all before making comments like that. Just about everything there support our claim that there is a shortage that is caused by poor wages and working conditions. Their solution is the last link that you're complaining about.

Cujo from EGL?

Globe trekker,

Pay is going up rapidly in 91 ops in the bigger cities. Jobs open, offers consist of, "give me a number, please."

GF

Breaks my heart to see the Rev and Ornstein go to Congress to cry about a situation they created with their horrible contracts that lined their pockets with millions. *sniff*

No pilot shortage. There is a pay shortage.

Takes two to tango, why did you take those wages?

GF

A year ago Bedford was claiming there would be a surplus of 3,000 pilots.

Regional Airlines' Pilot Shortage is Heading Toward the Perfect Storm ? Skift

Even Kit Darby agrees! Quotes by both are near the end. You have to agree with what they say because it does seem swapping 50 seaters for 70 is what is really going on..

It means he wanted to pay NEW HIRE pilots more than he had been paying them, simply to get them in the door. There were no meaningful increases for the rest of the pilots who were already trapped there.

Anybody with half a brain should know that Rev. Bedford's statement about 'trying to pay his pilots more, but they said no' doesn't pass the smell test. That's because it's a half-truth,.....or a I like to refer to half-truths,.....a lie.

He wanted to pay just enough to make it easier for HIM!,......... because it's all about HIM.

This caught my eye from JO, there's no way this is accurate.

"Its first officers average $45,000 a year and its captains $96,000"

Also this was just a moronic statement;
"In colorful words, Ornstein blamed Washington, and particularly Congress, for the current pilot situation, noting that young American pilots are going to Europe to fly where 250 hours in the right seat is not a problem. “There is no correlation to safety,” he said of the FAA’s 1,500-hour rule. Without change, the regionals are in trouble, “I’m afraid the whole industry dries up,” he said. That will have an effect on aircraft makers Bombardier and Embraer as well, he added"

I've heard republic was having trouble getting q pilots but not for the jet. Any trouble filling the e jets?

Does he need to be reminded of the 14 writtens you have to take become JAA and if you fail them more than 6 times any one of them you get to restart all over? passing requires an 85.

Let's not forget that many of these regional airline CEO's, along with the RAA HELPED CRAFT THE NEW 1500 hr RULE! They also knew well in advance (years) when the 1500 hr rule, as well as the 117 rules were coming. Yet they sat Idly by and did nothing to prepare for it.

Okay I LOL'ed at that one. :D

Its hard to believe that RAH pilots are so unhappy with their contract when their performance numbers are as good as they are... Just saying that there are other ways of being heard.

Um, so isn't that a pilot shortage? I think you are just using semantics... if there are not enough pilots because nobody is willing to work for the current pay, well then I would say that is a pilot shortage. The pay shortage is the root cause, but nevertheless there is a pilot shortage.

We've been over this dance a million times.

There's a shortage of pilots WILLING to work for poor pay. Period.

Add "qualified" to pilots in your statement and it's spot on.

Qualification was inferred. :rolleyes:

Sorry,
It isn't about the money, exactly. Its about the job as it is today, after more than 15 years my job is worse than when I started, granted I net more, but the QOL is far, and I mean far worse than in 2000. I take home high 5, low 6 figures and wouldn't do it over again for 2x the money. Its the QOL that makes one realize that after 70K, it doesn't matter how much more you make. So I will disagree, no matter how much beyond 70K you make the reality of 11-13 days off makes it all, including the original 70K, just not worth it. Add some commuting and living on a crashpad floor or cheap hotel room, and that job at Homer Dipot looks pretty good.
And commuting to Newark to sit reserve for UAL doesn't make the grade either.

+ 1
Some of you are so emotionally invested in this idiocy that basic definitions are bent to suit your whims.
There IS a shortage of qualified pilots willing to work for the crap pay that is currently being offered.

Relax, it ain't exactly a zero sum proposition so far as defining reality is concerned; and it certainly changes NOTHING in terms of what we don't make either or both.

Speculating speculative speculations

I think in 3-5 years' time, there will be a genuine shortage by anyone's definition. The Big 3 will be alright, but regionals will especially suffer with only their lifers sticking around. A little further down the road, LCC's and smaller carriers will have problems. JetBlue, Allegiant, etc. Then, maybe, a decade from now, the majors might have small staffing problems. I think at worst they'll just decrease frequency to smaller cities. The public will definitely notice though, particularly anywhere covered by Essential Air Service or by a regional jet.

Bill Clinton: Firms will care more about people, less about profits

Airline managers must not have got the memo yet

Aren't they supposed to sell off the Dash's in 2016? Also they are based in EWR correct? Property taxes/COL there is way too high esp for being a crap hole area.

I still can't get my head around one basic question. Would the worst regionals have trouble finding pilots if the pay at the best majors doubled? Think about it.

The higher the pay and benefits at the big five the lower it can be at the rest. I heard JO say as much in a conversation I had with him many years ago. He will always believe it.

That's the basic flaw in the current model. But who can afford 5-7 years at regional F/O pay, then a 3-5 at regional captain pay, to then go to a major at even or lower pay. I sit next to guys who are in the 3-6 year range and are close to BK. Student loans are not deferrable for 8-12 years so the choke point is truly at the regionals. Who can afford 60-100K in student loans for a 20K job?
The model is broken and with a 10+ year deferred gratification goal line how many can! want and/or will sign on for the ride. It's gotten to be a bad investment.

He'd stop "believing it", if people would finally stop lining his pocket by going to work for his and other bottom feeders! If he couldn't staff the flying, he'd have no other choice than to actually raise pay, benefits, work rules, and treatment of his employees!

Right, but until that happens he'll just keep getting the latest greatest Porsche delivered to the corporate office every few years, to show all his underlings, just like he did at WestAir back in ~1992. He is a jerk extrodinair. A zebra can't change their stripes.

JO tells you to your face he plans to screw you whereas Risley was sneaky at screwing you! Either way it hurts.

This, exactly. ECON 101.

GF

Only if there were a defined (and relatively quick) GUARANTEED path to those major jobs. There is no way to do that today so, well we are where we are.

My Envoy net pay from new hire to present (reserve, less than 6 months) averages $700 every two weeks. The only way I can do it (short term) is because I made just shy of six figures the last couple years at FlightSafety. Even the six year pay does not equal to an acceptable lifestyle for a professional pilot.

What was your average per diem a month?