What if there was no scope and all flying (including widebody) was farmed out to regional/subcontractor airlines? I'm playing devil's advocate here, mostly. Would this eliminate the carrot that is dangled in order to keep regional pay low? You can't make all the pilots work for $20/hr if there isn't a light at the end of the tunnel. Honestly, I don't think it would be good for the industry, but I do think a lot of regional pilots put up with the problems because they think their big break is just around the corner. If you can't improve working conditions, why not accelerate the race to the bottom? Eventually, there really will be a pilot shortage. I know, it wouldn't work like that, and would probably be an excuse to introduce some truly career killing changes in the industry. Just thinking out loud.

 

If you already admit you know it wouldn't work like that, why did you post it?

 

I suspect it would backfire, but who knows. I believe the reason the majority of pilots go to and stay in the regionals is that they are an almost mandatory internship for the better paying jobs at majors/lccs. That carrot is extremely powerful. So, how do we get rid of the power the carrot has over pilots?

 

Most pilots move on from the regionals. There are about 3x's as many major/lcc/legacy jobs in the states than regional jobs.

For example, from my newhire class at 9E 11 years ago, there are only 2 left still there.

 

I thought it was much more evenly split, but that aside, there's also part 125/charter, military, 91K, etc. Add up all the guys getting turbine PIC with aspirations of being major airline captains and it's probably more than there are (or will ever be) jobs for...

 

Yep! I thought it was closer, too... however, sulkair totalled it all up.

It's about 60,000 major/lcc/legacy jobs vs. just shy of 20,000 regional jobs.

http://www.airlinepilotforums.com/ma...rs-glance.html

http://www.airlinepilotforums.com/re...es-glance.html

 

3x is a nice number, but the upgrade times at many regionals suggest there are other factors at play. There aren't actually that many lifers, are there? How many of those 9 that left moved on to a significantly better pilot job? For everyone's sake, I hope you're right.

 

Your scenario is not that far fetched from a future reality. Pilots at regionals have overwhelmingly showed they are willing to put up with low pay and the like while pilots at majors have overwhelmingly showed their willingness to sell scope for personal enrichment.

In ten years, I predict the regional airlines will fly approximately 65% of all airline passengers in the US. There will be mass regional consolidation. Upgrade times will be in excess of 10 years at the regionals hence the deep desire to see pay scales at 12/4, what other reason is there for 12/4?

 

I'm not really sure that's an accurate statement. Since this thread is all about numbers, we'll pull some from the APC main page, OF COURSE, not 100% accurate, but close enough;

XJT 4600+ pilots
RAH 3000 pilots
Envoy 2600+ pilots.

Public school math says that's about 10K+ pilots, or roughly over half of the number of regional pilots per this thread and the referenced numbers.

ALL three of those groups voted NO to putting up with lower pay. Whether the sheer hourly amount, or the other ways of soft time, health care premium, DC plan, OJI banks, what have you.

The Pinndeavor scenario is a little hard to pin down. Because, when a company goes into a forced BK to extract cost reductions, what ELSE would they have done? I't NOT really that different than the legacies during their BK's in that regard.

So again, "overwhelmingly" is a bit a misused term to express what you're trying to say.

But total up Pinndeavor, PSA, and PDT. Not really close.

Pre 9/11, this was proven time and time again. On the UAL mid-term ESOP, then contract 2000. As well as NWA, and DAL contract 2001. Although there WERE mainline pilots that DID see the potential of "Pandora's Box" being opened, they were in a minority.

However, 80kts may (or may NOT) agree with this, as I've discussed it with him before. The 50 seaters getting parked IS A GOOD THING. At the higher oil prices, they've become too expensive to operate as compared to the pre 9/11 era, they're getting older and more costly from a MX perspective, passengers HATE them, and the various fleet rationalizations at the merged carriers panning out of larger gage/mainline equipment serving certain markets again, THANK GOD.

However, as much of a bane to the industry (AND the career) that the 50 seat equipment is, what's the bigger threat to the mainline/narrow body job? A 50 seat airplane, or the 70+ seat capacity equipment that was allowed on the most recent contracts? The '"recapture" of the scope so to speak on the contracts was GOOD coming off the "dark decade"/proliferation of the RJ/BK era, but hopefully the trend continues. Whereas UAL/DAL contracts allow for a certain number of large gage RJ's to be flown as a ratio and the "scope choke", it would be nice to see the future CBA's REDUCE those numbers allowed. IOW, MORE jobs going to mainline and LESS jobs at the outsourced regional feed provider.

Besides the retirement numbers accounting for job, but MORE airframes (even though maybe not the heavy/WB) going to mainline. More mainline pilots flying the equipment, on a mainline seniority list, on a mainline contract.

 

I think they will go about it a different way, when they are done pillaging the regionals they will go back at the Majors. That is why this job will never pay off for the current generation of pilots, the airlines will never return to the glory days. They did their damage at the Major level after 9/11 and now the regionals have been feeling the wrath the past 5 years. After the regionals fall apart in the next 5 years they will refocus on the Majors. If they are willing to lie, steal and cheat to take pennies from pilots living just above the poverty line why would anyone expect them not to exert these same forces on the top dogs of the industry?