This is what a pilot shortage really does
 

Here are a few articles from the last 6 months about what the pilot shortage is really doing to regional airlines. It's not really increasing pay, but it sure is cutting jobs and airline service...

SkyWest to divest Embraer EMB-120 aircraft
SkyWest to divest Embraer EMB-120 aircraft | Airframes content from ATWOnline

Great Lakes pulls out of Telluride
Telluride Daily Planet > Archives > News > Great Lakes pulls out of Telluride

Great Lakes Slashes Service to Small Cities, Blames Pilot Shortage
Great Lakes Slashes Service to Small Cities, Blames Pilot Shortage | The Cranky Flier

SkyWest is leaving Chico
SkyWest is leaving Chico - Redding

United reduces service from Roanoke to Dulles airport
United reduces service from Roanoke to Dulles airport | Local News - WDBJ7.com Central and Southwest VA

ExpressJet Tells United It Needs to Reduce Express Flying Due to Pilot Shortage
ExpressJet Tells United It Needs to Reduce Express Flying Due to Pilot Shortage | The Cranky Flier

I don't know if you know how this works but people aren't losing jobs (other than ground service).

"doing to regional airlines" being the operative phrase.

Regional airline service is diminishing in marginal markets while some regional airline payrolls shrink as fewer pilots are available and willing to work for regional airline-level compensation. On the flip side, major and national airlines are expanding service into small/medium-sized markets that were the exclusive domain of regional carriers for the last 13+ years and are growing their pilot headcount.

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The regional "scam" worked for a little while but it is clearly played out now. The flood gates from hell are about to open and I'm laughing my a$$ off watching this comedy unfold.

Simply the first burbles of the approaching tsunami lapping the shore. The smaller weaker regionals will be the first casualties and now it's starting to impact the larger ones. 12-18 months from now, it will be a full-blown crisis when the main wave slams into shore and then managements could throw all the money they have at it and still can't prevent it or stop it. It's too late now.

Many markets will lose service and others will have it significantly reduced. Due to the reduction is seats, airlines will be able to charge more and that coupled with cheap fuel should be good for profits. In about 5 years, that tsunami will hit the legacies, if nothing is done now. It takes years to seed a healthy pipeline and this disasterous wave has been 5 years in the making.

They'll **** it up for sure. :cool:

There is no pilot shortage. If you've been to a job fair there's still some college intern that tells you to do some volunteer work to round out your resume. I guess I should go massage puppies an hour a week huh?

I smell Embry riddle or ATP Flight School all over this guy.

Really ?

I hear of regional airlines cold-calling off old applications.

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Really? Did you laugh in his face? How does volunteer work make you a better, safer pilot. If I did volunteer work, it would be from the heart and not to "pump up" my resume. I guess there are some here who would volunteer solely for personal gain tho


Just like there are some who pad their logbooks, say they voted no when they voted yes, fly struck work. All about the same level of individual in my book.

Character gentlemen. Look it up.

ATP Flight School. My FO knows.

SKW recently made it clear that they would shrink before raising pilot pay. This was reported via a SAPA conference call.

Guess they're afraid that if they lock in a raise them be uncompetitive in the long run.

All anyone cares is when the purported shortage will result in "pains" in the hiring at the majors.

Shortage because a regional CEO said one exists ? FAIL

(per RickAir) That's why I have trouble with all these claims there is a pilot shortage when you have tons of pilots sitting around. I left airlines in fact and have been cold-called by an airline maybe once, ever. The real story is they do not want to pay anything, and they are not calling anybody because they already know the answer is "no, I can make more at Home Depot".

There is no shortage of pilots with ATPs in hand.

Just a lot of us can't or won't work for regional wages.

Which for all intents and purposes for the regionals produces the same result. It isn't just pay, the regionals have a well-deserved reputation as sweatshops run by unsympathetic bosses who place no value in their employees, including plots.

It's the perfect recipe for ultimate faliure.

Again, no pilot shortage at the majors. Period, the end.

Back when things were crazy around 2007, pilots fresh out of flight school were going straight to 121 operations....so all the aviation jobs that relied on experience builders got screwed; flight schools, sky dive operations, banner tow, 135, some corporate, aerial survey, etc. Who was coming to their rescue??? Nobody.. I don't understand why the world needs to come crashing down to bail out the regionals, who oh by the way, provide lift for some of the heaviest hitters in all of aviation. If things are so bad, Delta, United, AA, and Alaska can provide the resources and programs to shore up their pilot feed. If they, don't, the problem is of their own making. Enough with the sob stories.

Nope. Plenty of regional pilots to pick from. Now in 5-7 years when the regionals are dry (or non-existent) ? :eek:

SkyWest isn't losing the Bros or those cities because of a pilot shortage. The Bro is too expensive to fly because of part availability and part suppliers no longer doing business. It's lost its economic advantage. Chico and Redding need more funding to add the CRJ.

No pilot shortage on SKW side. Great Mistakes airline on the other hand has a shortage of qualified volunteers/interns to fly their routes.

I don't know. I think we have enough mil-pilots coming off Iraq/Afghan and whatever else world hotspot with plenty of international and etc time to keep the majors happy.

Plus the non-legacy guys not at FDX, AAL, SWA but at Frontier, Spirit, (maybe put JBLU into that mix also), Atlas, etc who have apps in at majors with Airbus, Boeing time on their resume.

Then all the captains across the regionals who meet ATP/etc have PIC experience

So, I don't know.

See you in 2021 and we can talk then.

Pure speculation, but I think the future at regional is for slightly higher salaries for a number of years to bring some of the marginally interested pilots out of the woodwork. Gradually they'll raise pay and working conditions as we are already seeing at Lakes, CommutAir and a few others. They are extremely reluctant to dramatically raise pay because once that happens it is impossible to put the cat back in the bag. We'll see piddling raises for years to keep the marginal people coming. Airlines are very good at chiseling costs and will not stop doing that any time soon but I doubt we'll see any of them fold due to lack of pilots.

Aren't they all trying to offer incentive pay for first yr, instead of wage increases? That and new flow schemes will be the next step. Maybe later there will be some sort of set-up with aviation programs where an airline subsidizes part of your training in return for an agreement to work for them for a certain amt. of time. I can see the return of Delta Academy, for example.

So, say 15% more (slightly higher salaries) for new-hires will bring all kinds of people out of the woodwork ?

For most new-hires (the shortage position), that's perhaps an extra $4000/year or $77/week. Is that going to draw people making $60-150K in other fields to "realize their dream" ?

How about high-school seniors who need to convince mom and dad another $50-60K ABIOVE normal college costs is worth it ?

I STRONGLY doubt that will help.

How about a $50,000 minimum starting salary ?

OK, but now you've got costs that can't be supported by the aircrafts ability to generate enough profit and they're screwed on the other end. At that point, it makes more sense to return that flying to mainline, where more seat revenue is available to offset costs. Nope, they've flown themselves up a canyon and (like it or not) have insufficient power to fly themselves out. All they can do now is shuffle pieces around and ride the attrition until that doesn't work either (and that's approaching very FAST). Then, they can only burn what little furniture is left to heat the house until it's time to abandon the house.

Hey,.........just like virtually everything in this world, the regionals also had a limited life-span (heck, they even use "disposable" jets) and it couldn't last like that forever. It's the ultimate irony that the very thing that gave regionals their viability and popularity (low labor costs) will be the very thing that ultimately results in their demise because no one wants to make such a bad financial and emotional investment in it anymore.

Poor, poor executives. What are they to do ? :rolleyes:

That's a pilot shortage!

GF

The regional model may be flawed beyond repair, but what I'm speculating will happen is small changes not big ones. Increase pilot pay just enough get the fence straddlers through the door. I'm really not speculating, this is what's going on now. People always bought the dream more than the actual job which will continue for a while longer. And sure it's wrong, always was, but it works too well to stop doing any time soon.

The "fence straddlers" are but a fraction of those in the college programs who still plan to consider the regionals. Those college program pilots are perhaps 25-30% of those required in the future.

Any way you slice it, the regionals are ****ed. :cool:

side note

Proof that the majors never intended for regional airlines to be "regional". Even at the creation of the RJ they planned on using it to "exploit long, thin routes. " interesting choice of words back in the 90's considering what has transpired over the last decade and how regionals have been treated



1989: Bombardier Launches The Regional Jet Era | From The Archives

What was oil back in mid i
80's when this thing was on drawing board? 25 bucks a barrell ?

Management says its because the bro is too expensive to operate. The reality is they need the pilots to fly the RJ. The cost of parts may have a small part in it, but don't be fooled. I know (for a FACT) that SkyWest is retiring the the Brasilia because they need the pilots elsewhere. The hiring team is strugling to fill classes...but for now they are able to do it. Retiring the Brasilia will help for the next 5 months. After that...who knows.

This is what a pilot shortage really does
 

My school can't get cfi's, they are having to offer 5 k signing bonuses along with new a20's and a iPad. More then any regional is doing. Standardization is saying they are still having trouble as we are tremendously under staffed. Have about 50 cfi's they need it in the 75 range.

Thanks for the info!

Could you tell us who the majority of students are, US or foreign, training for foreign carriers? Are they really giving away Bose A20s?

You know for a fact? Spill the beans amigo, we are nameless avatars on here, what's the immediate need for 300 pilots? I have multiple outside work relations at HDQ that confirm MX & parts as THE factor. Not denying staffing being a variable, just curious on specifics that your hearing.

Yes sir a20's and new iPad Air. 99.9% foreign students going to foreign carriers. We have 3 domestic students out of around 350ish students.

Management will never admit they're having a harder time recruiting and weaken their position of "no mas" for pilots... MX & parts were a smaller part of the "equation" than the real and growing concern about filling classes and keeping the rest(non-turboprop) portion of the fleet crewed and in the air.

Where is this school?


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You pilot shortage guys need to wake up. Where it matters (the majors and quality corporate jobs) there is NO shortage and NEVER WILL BE a shortage.

You could argue "well, the shortage at the regionals will catch up to the majors" but observe that hiring, and the economy is cyclical. Today, 2014, we are seeing "ramped up hiring" (AAL, DAL, UAL) BUT it is NOTHING like the mid-90's. Todays "ramped up hiring" is a joke. FedEx is "hiring" by the way. Jump for joy and high-five your Kit Darby buddies. "Hiring" meaning they are hiring like 10 dudes in the next 12 months.

Once the economy slows down (as it always does), hiring will slow. Hiring is basically because of two things: 1) Expansion at a carrier and/or 2) Replacement of bodies

Slowing economy, expansion slows or stops. Replacement of bodies due to medical outs, retirements, etc is easier obtained via already existing flow-thrus and the current resume stack. In my opinion, the real "dang we need to hire ! hire now !" fire alarm is activiated when a carrier decides it needs to add XXX routes with YYY more planes, to compete with a competitor who is already doing the same. So the flow-thru agreements with so many bodies agreed to per month or per cycle or per new hire class etc, may not satisfy that requirement.

"Yes but age 65 they will need pilots". Age 65 will impact AAL mostly, not so much SWA, JBLU, or even UAL. Probably FDX/UPS. DAL some.

Observe that one carrier's expansion can affect the same carrier's regional, albeit negatively. If AAL decides that due to ramped up PAX at MAF, they will pull 3 RJ flights and add 2 737 flights, then where did those RJ's go ? Kileen ? I doubt it.

Age 65 in mind, if the majors hire a bunch of 50 year old dudes with extensive experience (they are out there), they just band-aided their age 65 problem for 10+ years.

You need to keep in mind that basically the RJ's even if the major brand name is slapped on the fuselage, is competing with the majors in some form or fashion.

Good Luck

Shortage of qualified pilots willing to work for US regional airlines does not equate to a scarcity of qualified pilots in the US...

There will likely be a "shortage" of regional pilots. There will be qualified pilots, but not ones that will take regional jobs. This will continue to increase as airplanes are shuffled around. There are guys that have been with an airline 15 years that are not willing to go to another regional when theirs goes out of business. The number in school now is simply too low to sustain the attrition.

This will have to lead to better pay/benefits, or the increase in amount of flying at the majors.

The other thing to consider at the Majors is the number of guys that were hired during the last "shortage". There were many young guys that have quite a bit of seniority and have been receiving good pay for years. Pilots working past 60 years of age will be the exception, not the rule. If people can retire at 62, they will.

pretty sure this posting is referencing transpac aviation in phoenix. they train zero to hero Chinese pilots

That's more wishful thinking. Due to PAUSE being pushed on most airline pilots' career progression due to the Fair Treatment for Experienced Pilots Act, they will HAVE to work beyond 60 to try to make up (some) for the financial hit that 5-year pause cost them.

Some will, many won't - look no further than retirements over the last 5 years...