End Of The Regionals
 

Conservatively 600 plus pilots are leaving the regionals each month.

No doubt there are pilots who are not trying to leave, but what percentage of each carrier is that?

What is the date of the door closing?

Mid 2016????

Time for pilots flying $30 million dollar aircraft with 70 plus passengers to get paid $100,000 minimum for a first officer.

600 are leaving? Where is that statistic coming from? If true, you would be correct that the regionals would be in a great deal of trouble.

However, I think if 600 pilots are leaving, 450 of them are making a lateral move and taking another regional job.

If you think regionals are going, you're smoking dope. No way is that happening--they still represent about 50% of the departures. As sure as the sun rises, there will be an event--fuel, war, economy--that will bring the industry low. Contracts will be renegotiated, scope changed and 90-seaters will be the new RJ.

GF

Can I get some of what you're on?

The regionals are no longer 50% of US departures, and major/legacy pilots out number regional pilots 2:1 now. The trend, thankfully, is going the correct direction.

Will they die? Nah...definitely not. Hopefully the trend continues in the correct direction.

I would love to see the details of your 600/month. Even the big 3 see less than an average of 600 a YEAR each. So at the highest average peak, 2000 pilots a year head to the big 3 and that doesn't include military, corporate, cargo etc.

Even with a liberal number of 100 guys a month at each if the big 3, that's 3600/year. Compared to your 7200/year leaving the regionals. So where are the rest going?
Jumping ship to other regionals, quitting the profession?

I don't pay too much attention but even the bigger regionals like Skywest and Expressjet lose well under 100 a month.
With numbers like you are "conservatively" posting, the regionals wouldn't have a single pilot within a few years.

Nope. Wish you were on to something here though....

Flamebait. Gzsg does this all the time. He states a total unsubstantiated figure as fact then throws out a few questions to get people going.

End Of The Regionals
 

600 are leaving and 599 of them are going to a different regional.

With 1000 lining up to replace them.

It's not about how many leave, it's about the net loss. I've heard that some (one specifically) are losing up to 2% net per month but others are growing. Overall the industry loss is negligible.

Amen on that 100k brother, even at a major you won't get that in the first few years.

If no one can afford to fly because all pilots are making over $100k first year, who is going to pay off your student loans?

End ?

Not likely. Expect a steadily increasing inability to meet legacies needs that will become a crisis within a couple of years. 5 years from now, regionals will contract by at least 50% with larger 64-76 aircraft as the majority.

10 years from now. Boy, that's a real ugly wildcard if you ask me. Many small and medium cities will be in dire trouble void of air service. ATA will blame everyone but themselves, of course.

Dire? Melodramatic much?

Then you are going to have to replace almost every regional first officer with first officers with REAL experience and that are worth $100,000/yr. Because current regional pilots aren't worth it since most are entry level pilots and what you are wanting isn't an entry level job anymore.

You can't have it both ways..... entry level pilots commanding $100,000/yr. You aren't worth it.

Well, I've never convinced an Ostrich of anything yet. For some reason, they never hear me. :rolleyes:

Why is that entry level physicians and pharmacists and many other highly sought professions command a significantly higher starting salary than do first officers whom have spent a significant amount on education and training? I'll tell you why, it's not because you they are not worth it, they are worth every bit. Someone mentioned on here sometime ago that the doctors figured it out while the lawyers and pilots, not so much. Make it harder(read selective) to enter the profession and you will see the supply-demand pendulum swing the other way around.

The 1500hr rule, new ATP regulations and increased cost of education are all acting to make it less appealing to enter the profession. Most on here think in terms of the singularity of the US market and if you take a look at the world outside the CONUS the starting salary is higher on average. I taught many students that left the US to go back home with a fresh CPL that made more starting than I ever will as a regional FO. Just my two cents though.

-2263

Quit comparing yourself to a doctor or lawyer. ANY retard with enough money can become a regional airline pilot.

Yes please don't compare pilots to lawyers.

The dumbest girl I ever met in college got a law degree.

I knew some girls that danced at places by the airports that were paying their way through "law school"..

Lemme guess - the "Landing Strip"?

I think Canada has a different term for law school.

Toronto!!!

Delta will make over $4 billion this year and $7 billion in 2015.

I guess if an auto mechanic makes more than a new hire regional pilot, no one will drive any more.

Yours was the most ignorant post I've ever read here.

So after college and years spent getting 1500 hours they are not worth it.

Do you know what I high school drop out makes in an oil field? What a plumber makes? An auto mechanic? A welder?

Truck drivers make 3 times what a regional new hire makes.

You are an ignorant fool. Watch and learn. The party is over for all these inept managements.

Those numbers are profits after expenses, correct?

Any facts or articles to back up your claims that you, ve made so far? Just saying.

It must be nice to be completely disillusioned and living in your own reality. Why stop at $100k? I think all pilots should make a gazillion dollars a year because that's what doctors and astronauts make!

You look at those profits like they've been happening for the last decade. These are the facts: Profits on the legacy side are a new thing and will continue to stay high as long as gas prices stay low. What do you think will happen if oil shoots up to $100/barrel again? If you've read those reports, most of the airlines are just barely breaking even on fares. In the 3rd quarter alone, Delta Airlines brought in over $11B in revenue but only had a $357M profit. This is considering low fuel costs, a high demand for leisure travel, and a busy and uneventful summer travel season. What happens during hurricanes/snow storms, lack of demand due to localized recessions or other microeconomic forces, and, GASP, the thing that more pilots subscribe to (ironically), unabated capitalism (i.e. competition from ULCCs new or otherwise, international carriers, etc)? In order to keep up with booming competition overseas, they will have to modernize their fleets. How much do you think it's going to cost to replace all the MD88s, 757, 767, and 747s? You'd be out of your mind if you think any management would agree to (safe estimate) doubling their labor costs overnight.

Delta made $1.6 billion in the 3rd quarter. They will make $7 billion plus in 2015.

Your perception of what a pilot is worth is insulting. I'm sorry if a pilot stole your girlfriend, but paying them $24,000 a year will soon be a distant memory.

You know, your juvenile insults really are entertaining. Are you going to throw a temper tantrum next? Your inability to counter my post with any real facts just proves that you are truly an ignoramus...and you're suprisingly bad at google. My 13 year old cousin does a better job using search engines.

According to Reuters, BusinessInsider, AND Fox Business, Delta profits were $357 Million. If you need someone to explain to you how money works, talk to a college freshman.

Or corporate or legacy or air ambulance...the list goes on, why stop at the regional pilot. The psychology of it all makes one wonder, I believe the very stigma associated with being a regional pilot in the US helps to suppress wages. You, however crudely proved my point though, that access to the profession is too easy in more ways than one, therefore the supply and demand curve is weighted heavily towards the company's favour. I may be wrong, however that's just my layman observation.

-2263

I'll bite...

Oil rig workers make nearly $100,000 a year - May. 10, 2012

The average wage for an oil field worker with less than a year experience is $67k/year, and goes up from there. The average was $99k/year in 2011. I have friends who barely made it through high school and goofed off afterwards. They're now living pretty decent lifestyles, easily affording houses and nice cars. That's more than I can say as a pilot...

You are one french fry short of a Happy Meal.

Regional FOs make what they make because the majors have set up a system where pilot "costs" have to be at a certain point or the regional can't make money. Regional margins are very tight and there are a dozen companies waiting to take the flying if a company decides they need more money.

There is a pool of money available for pilots which is more or less static (there is a little room for negotiation) and what is negotiated is how to divvy it up. I'm not sure who decided what the captain/FO split should be but it is definitely slanted in favor of captains at the regional level.

For the total compensation package to increase in a meaningful way at contractor companies the majors will have to decide they want to pay regional pilots more. In my opinion the dearth of qualified regional candidates will eventually force compensation higher at the lower end of the industry. That could mean higher regional wages or a transfer of flying to mainline.

Yeah, it's called the Canadian Ballet.

That's quite a meaningful way of looking at it.

-2263

Congrats on taking the time to look it up .

This is true. I have friends and family in the oil field making ludicrous amounts of money for their education. However I am not so dull as to try and compare the back breaking labor in south Texas heat that they endure for 60 hours a week to what I do... I mean yes, it's somewhat disappointing that I spent years getting to the level I am at, only to make 24k a year again and start at the bottom..but to try and compare this job to working in an oil field?? How long do you think your body can withstand that kind of punishment? I'm too big a wuss for that..

I got my private when I was 17 and my Dad taught me. When the big day came for my oral and checkride, he drove me to the airport and he waited and I passed and I was beaming. As he was a pilot also (USAF), on the way home he said some nice things and commended me on my accomplishment. He concluded his praise by saying, "But just remember this son. You can teach a damned monkey how to fly." I couldn't believe he said that, but later I realized he did so to keep my ego in check and I'm sure I needed that at the time. Years and years and thousands and thousands of hours later, I always remembered that at times when I was just so bored I could cry.