Not trying to call you out specifically, but keep in mind the thousands of normal, everyday, just trying to pay the bills, people being affected by this mess.

It's fun to think of BB and his cronies squirming in their boardrooms, but the top folks have earned enough and they'll have a soft landing wherever they end up. The real folks suffering from the horrible mismanagement may be forced to start over and deserve our help and support.


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Not right now. Only if they are released by the NMB

Looks like the beginning of the end there will be a bankruptcy filing or sale/merger within a year. I have friends at RAH and wish them the best but honestly it's not looking too good for Republic right now.

Why would they do that? They expect Regional pilots to hop-scotch around to the next "IT" place like PSA chasing the cheese. It costs them a lot less money!

I imagine because they have a lot of assets that the mainline needs for now (2000+ qualified pilots and 200+ jets)

Sale makes no sense! Who would want to buy a contractor with unprofitable contracts and a fed-up work force?

This is going to be really bad for regional and LCC pilots.

There are going to be a couple thousand pilots out of work and looking for a job. The entire "pilot shortage" thing will be gone instantly. There will be no need for bonuses or pay raises, as all of the Republic pilots will be flocking to the other regionals.

If all of the seats in a new hire class are full, there is no need to raise pay at the bottom.

Why would SkyWest, Envoy, PSA, Piedmont, Endeavor, etc... do anything different if there are suddenly a thousand applicants. That will keep their classes for the next 6 months, and they will be happy.

The mainline's MO is to put out RFP's for the lift. Someone will bid for it and staff it with the promise of quick upgrades.

You forgot that there would be an immediate demand for a couple thousand extra pilot jobs if Republic goes under. The only way your analysis makes sense, is if that flying disappears completely, or there are a couple thousand extra pilots that magically pop up to replace the Republic pilots.

You might be able to staff some of it with the Republic pilots, but most of them won't start over and only 50% of the jobs will be captain spots.

The earnings report not being even worse that it was is the only thing that's surprising here. The total penalties that Republic has to pay each time they cancel a flight for lack of crew has to be through the roof. The Q400 controllable completion factor recently has been just abysmal.

It's a messed up Racket isn't it?

You might be able to staff some of it with the Republic pilots, but most of them won't start over and only 50% of the jobs will be captain spots.[/QUOTE]

Let's hope so. That's the only way they will sweeten the contracts awarded...if they are forced to because pilots are unwilling to start over somewhere else. I don't have much faith in that. 90% of my classmates at AWAC were former Comair pilots.

Mainline won't do that! They don't need pilots bad enough! They see how we have scattered to the next Regional airline with quick movement in the past. It costs them less money to award the flying to the next lowest bidder.

The problem with doing this in the current market is the regionals don't compensate their pilots enough to have a surplus of willing pilots to work for them.

If Republic shuts down, where will the pilots have to come from? Republic. So lets say 100% of those pilots go replace themselves at the new carrier that was awarded the flying. How to you account for the months to a year that the planes aren't flying? How do you entice the pilots to work for Longevity year 1 and only 50% of the jobs are captain spots.

Republic management wants to get away with only paying new pilots more to attract them. The Republic pilots are saying no and rightfully so.

The only solution here is Republic to offer the Endeavor style bonus for all, or fold. Mainline will have to pay Republic more to do this, but maybe the mainline partners want out of their Republic contract. Could be an easy and cheaper way for the mainline airlines to do this.

Either way, the airline staffing the flying will have to compensate their pilots a lot more than the current Republic Airways does. If no one does, they will just have the same problems Republic is having.

That's all true but it seems to work every time. The next lowest bidder will have to bid enough to make money and pay people enough to attract them. It won't happen overnight. That's the biggest problem. It will be a slow death and a quiet race to the next contractor who promises quick upgrades or fake flows.

PSA Brownstreak types will gladly take another concessionary contract for some of that widebody regional flying.. Everyone will be tripping over each other to get there for the instant upgrades too. Including furloughed RAH pilots. Happened before and it will happen again. It's not like all the Comair guys or Envoy people who had their future pulled out from under them just quit the industry. Maybe 2% do. The majority flocked to the bottomfeeders hiring. Senior Comair pilots were packing Gojet classes even though they were the pariah of the industry.

This is why we are all screwed in this industry.

What can you do as a pilot? You have to find work, how can you blame an individual pilot for trying to stay employed? If there were more national unity among pilots this wouldn't be an issue.

Is anyone surprised that Republic has a high probability to be the first Regional to face serious issue in this changing environment?

http://www.airlinepilotforums.com/re...ml#post1691451

Hopefully all the pilots there are able to land on their feet and nothing comes out of this news but I still think that it is going to be a shaky decade for all regionals.

It's been shaky for Regional Pilots for a long time. I don't think most can make it thru this sector of the business without a downgrade, furlough or sideways reboot before making it to the big leagues. It takes luck, timing and a lot of ass-kissing!

Peace in the Middle East is far more likely unfortunately

I believe you're talking about a guild. The average pilot considers him/herself a conservative due to their past military service / expectation of higher wages and dislike of taxes - so they call their unions "Associations".

We are blue collar hourly workers. While the guys who've made it financially can call themselves conservatives and vote accordingly, pilots by and large vote against their own self interests (e.g. voting for anti-labor candidates).

Flame away, but this is a BIG part of why you and I will never live to see a guild / national seniority list; it's too socialized for most pilots to stomach. Also, read "Flying The Line" 1&2 to read about how we got to where pilots are able to think of themselves as anything but hourly workers dependent upon labor unions to bargain on their behalf.

Really, how exactly did Endeavor form?

Agreed. Great post.

If there aren't enough pilots to fill the current new hire classes how will Republic closing fill classes if their lift isn't going away?

Snooze you lose b*tch.

What we need are some hardcore Union thugs to enforce unity. Isn't that how the Teamsters used to do it?

Everyone seems to agree a national seniority list is a good idea, widebody Captains excepted, but nobody has the political will to make it happen.

You guys need to keep things in perspective. It sucks RAH pilots are going to be seeing some strife, but this is just the beginning. The entire system is going to collapse in the next few years, there simply isn't enough pilots to fill the void that will be left.

The demise of RAH and all regionals in general is positive for the long term from a pilots perspective. Either the Majors are going to want to pick up that flying or they won't. It's that simple.

I'm curious as to why you think another regional could replace the Republic pilots when they themselves can't even staff what they have. In order to replace the Republic pilots, you would need an excess amount of pilots to fill the training gap that would occur.

Unless the replacement airline pays what Endeavor is paying, it will not succeed.

They can't staff cause nobody wants to go there and people are leaving.

Because the JR RaH pilots will jump ship first, followed by mid seniority pilots.

Look what happened to Envoy. Strong no vote and where everybody went? PSA and MESA.

I could see the same happening in a couple of months if RAH goes down the road.

Already happening. They are showing up in PDT's Ground Schools.
:eek:

You guys have got to relax. RAH isn't going anywhere.

I agree this is a huge push by BB and the RAA to get relief from 1500 hour rule. This creates massive publicity and allows BB to go to the aviation subcommittee and and say- we are about to put 7000 employees out of jobs.

Let's relax, breathe, and understand that RAH has long term CPAs which can be used as collateral to borrow against. As well as the equity in already owned EJETS.

You are underestimating the situation. Maybe they're playing games maybe not, but RAH will fail. It will happen. It must happen. 1/3 of all airline pilots will soon be retiring, there isn't enough pilots to fill that void.

RAH will be one of the first simply because they are not wholly owned.

This is happening.

lol you're right about publicity. Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, and others are already all over this news story.

Well, you are a notorious flame-baiter, so your opinion and posts don't hold much water.

I don't personally believe that we will see a "catastrophic collapse" of the regional model like many of you suggest. It will shrink as the big 3 add small narrow body airplanes, but the network carriers will not function without a cheap feed system. They can't compete with the likes of SWA without it. It's too important to the NAS. The majors will preserve their cheap feed. They are obsessed with it. Look at how many regionals are now flying for AA. The whipsaw is the tool to keep labor costs at regionals AND mainline in check.

There will absolutely be relaxation of the 1500 hour rule. They will get it. To think otherwise is foolish.

This is just the beginning. RAH will survive.

No doubt they are pushing for repeal or other changes to the law, but this is much deeper than that. You don't let your stock fall 50%+ in a single day, and analysts don't arbitrarily downgrade the stock just for political posturing. Nor do you hire an external consulting firm just to prove a point. There is something much bigger going on. I'm not saying it's the end of RAH but this is not just BB or others pushing for regulatory change or publicity.