We're parking airplanes because we can't staff our flying. We can't attract fresh meat with our outdated contract. Once airplanes start getting parked, pilots get furloughed. It's difficult to attract new pilots when you offer no future. It's a crazy cycle that's difficult if not impossible to stop. More and more pilots are going to leave which results in more parked airplanes along with downgrades and furloughs. Company shrinks to oblivion, CEO walks away with millions.

From the news today

"The airline pointed to an ongoing operational disruption caused by regulatory changes as well as an ongoing labor dispute with pilots for the lower earnings and revenue figures."

It seems both the company and the pilots are suffering from the same problem: lower earnings and revenue figures.

My thought, too. RAH flies a lot of jumbo RJs. Some of them brand spankin' new. Those planes will be flown by someone.

The last time I saw the Reverend BB he didn't look very well. I told a couple of people he looked worn out, sick and resigned, basically like his pilots. I am now wondering if the FAIL in the spring to get a contract and the subsequent reduction in flying constituted writing on the wall for him.

So sad that he's willing to put 6000 employees out of work just to spite the pilots over scope, among other issues. Scope? Really? We're a f'ing regional and you want to outsource? Where's the gasoline?

PSA has hired almost 1000 pilots since the regulatory changes. Don't think they should be able to use that excuse. The pilots are out there. If people are willing to work for PSA. Then why not republic?

Why would he furlough? I could certainly see downgrades to staff the right seat, but most would leave after downgrade. why not just sale S5 to Delta and send the pilots that are on the certificate. I'm sure Delta would love to whipsaw again. Sounds like YX will be the surviving certificate anyways.

He can't. One list.

The experiment at PSA hasn't worked as planned and they have already slowed down. If you didn't go to PSA already, you missed the boat. Sure, go for street captain if you have the time, but you will be junior for a long time. Their woes are just beginning. Compass is starting to experience it now.

Now the 50 jet replacement that Republic has tried to replace the Envoy pilots is failing. They only staffed the Envoy flying by parking other airplanes.

You can be successful in this environment with the initial replacement wave, but once you get past the initial seniority bump, the staffing issues will go the other way.

This isn't pre-2013 ATP minimum replacement anymore. Republic failed to adapt and this is the result.

Seabury was also an engineer of the Pinnacle/Mesaba/Colgan bankruptcy.

This is starting to sound like the Pinnacle/Phil Trenary playbook--a sham bankruptcy for Bedford to extract as much money as possible from the shareholders prior to Chapter 11, after which one of your codeshare partners or a private equity group will finance you out of bankruptcy, slap a bankruptcy contract on you, and lay out a plan for your future operational structure.

How many pilots does republic currently have?

Envoy pilots salivating on this.

Good luck!

Off the top of my head, 25 or 2600 maybe?

Well the rumor has been floating around for a while that Envoy is likely to get a lot more flying than they are currently slated for. And I can bet you the nickel in my pocket none of this news comes as a shock to daddy Doug. They already know what they are going to do with Republic's flying and how they are going to do it.

What are the various certificates at RAH and who do they each fly for? How many planes each? What are the domiciles for each?

Wow the salivating here is comical.

How would you work charter, corporate, and military pilots into this list?

Up 25% so far today

I'm not salivating. None of your airplanes are coming my way. Just stating that this may substantiate rumors.

Glad I was able to buy some stock yesterday just before it bottomed out. Anyone else get in on the fun?

Just like the RP pilots were, when they took all of comairs flying. RP guys couldn't contain themselves.

Also ORD/MIA and 47 American Eagle painted airplanes.

Not that I think a Natl. Seniority list would work, but. Charter would be easy, corporate would be treated as contract workers, therefore not on the list, and military, same as a military plumber get a job on the civilian side after retiring and welcome to the bottom of the list..

Ha! Now that's funny right there.

As a former Comair pilot, I can assure you that you have no clue what you're talking about.

Damn financial advisor told me to stay away. I should fire him.

Charter dudes would come onto the National Seniority List when they get their 135 letter and keep it current. Corporate dudes would come when they finish initial at an established training company like FSI or CAE and keep their type current. Mil dudes would get a national number on the date they are awarded their wings.

RJET is up 67% today, albeit still only at $5.78.

Thats more than half way back to where it was before the crash.

Nothing to see here folks, move along.

Up 66% in a couple hours with 14m volume so far today, avg daily volume is 771,000. Yeah, nothing to see here. There are no retail investors making this swing like it is. Someone knows something.

Haha. It couldn't be buy low sell high. It definitely is lots of investors with really good inside info buying up stock.

The attrition should preclude the need for any furloughs. However, by parking an entire fleet or two leaves a bunch of extra pilots on payroll doing nothing until they go through retraining. If there's one thing this company despises, it's paying pilots to sit at home doing nothing. That's why I suspect they would furlough even if it's out of seniority. The reverend has also spoken of pilots with more than 7 years longevity with disdain. Maybe he'll start furloughing from the top of the list. Gotta get rid of those expensive lifers. There's really no telling what kind of creative screw ups we have yet to see. We're talking about a management group with a scorched earth mentality.

RJET won't shut down, at least not for a long time. They have a pilot shortage and will simply reduce schedules and renegotiate with their partners until their staffing and block hours equalize. With attrition they may have to be on some sort of long term fleet reduction plan unless staffing can materially change.
Even if they were on track to have a sudden shut down, their partners will swoop in and take over. Look at Delta and Pinacle- there was no way Delta was going to allow a sudden and dramatic interuption of its feed.

Anybody know if there is some language in RAH deal for the 47 aircraft doing AA flying which states that if RAH cannot fulfill its obligations, financing for those 47 planes reverts to AA?

People will claim they do but no one officially knows.

Damn, I knew I should have bought some stock yesterday. It's currently +1.85 (+53.7%) for the day.

Integrate current 121 by hire dates at their first airline that they worked for.

When joining the "121 world" you will be added to the list by the date you start new hire class. In order to stay on the list you can't be off a 121 payroll for more than (blank) number of months or years.

You want to make a life flying non 121? Go for it. You'll risk giving up seniority.

If you want to maintain your relative senori at your current airline then don't switch companies.

If a pilot has not changed companies then they will not lose their relative senority by having a pilot that is changing pushing them downward. This will make the national senority list useless at first but allow upcoming generations to benefit. Boiled down this means that pilots that do not switch companies from where they were before the list will be protected. Pilots that join a company after the list is formed will be fair game to be pushed downward.

Thoughts?

I don't think it matters either way. If RAH can't complete enough flights per their AA agreement, AA stops payments and RAH either files bankruptcy or they allow AA to take them over.

AA pays for those planes via AA ticket sales. Without that money, it doesn't matter if RAH owns the leases or not.

As pilots, it doesn't matter if you vote yes or no. The laws of economics, supply and demand will always play out and never need any help from us.
I don't think Rjet is going anywhere, and I highly doubt a mainline would acquire any more regionals unless they wanted a place to dump money into to show a loss for financial reasons. Y'all just sit back, relax, and have some popcorn.

Remember back in 08 when BB said he hoped pilots would make a career here when the last hiring boom was thinning the ranks? I think the exact quote was "I hope our seasoned pilots choose to keep their careers at republic".

National Seniority List...now there's a pie in the sky concept that sounds great on the internet but would be terrible in practical application.

Besides...if that's ever gonna happen (it won't) inclusion on the list should be at issuance of ATP.

There's better odds of Bedford getting a vasectomy and throwing 30% raises to CAs and 40% to FOs than ever seeing a NSL in our lifetimes.