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-   -   RJET down by -50% today? (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/regional/89670-rjet-down-50-today.html)

FirstClass 07-27-2015 02:37 PM

You guys need to keep things in perspective. It sucks RAH pilots are going to be seeing some strife, but this is just the beginning. The entire system is going to collapse in the next few years, there simply isn't enough pilots to fill the void that will be left.

The demise of RAH and all regionals in general is positive for the long term from a pilots perspective. Either the Majors are going to want to pick up that flying or they won't. It's that simple.

404yxl 07-27-2015 02:41 PM


Originally Posted by ChipChelios (Post 1938380)
That's all true but it seems to work every time. The next lowest bidder will have to bid enough to make money and pay people enough to attract them. It won't happen overnight. That's the biggest problem. It will be a slow death and a quiet race to the next contractor who promises quick upgrades or fake flows.

I'm curious as to why you think another regional could replace the Republic pilots when they themselves can't even staff what they have. In order to replace the Republic pilots, you would need an excess amount of pilots to fill the training gap that would occur.

Unless the replacement airline pays what Endeavor is paying, it will not succeed.

billyho 07-27-2015 02:44 PM


Originally Posted by 404yxl (Post 1938491)
I'm curious as to why you think another regional could replace the Republic pilots when they themselves can't even staff what they have. In order to replace the Republic pilots, you would need an excess amount of pilots to fill the training gap that would occur.

Unless the replacement airline pays what Endeavor is paying, it will not succeed.

They can't staff cause nobody wants to go there and people are leaving.

PilotJ3 07-27-2015 02:46 PM


Originally Posted by 404yxl (Post 1938491)
I'm curious as to why you think another regional could replace the Republic pilots when they themselves can't even staff what they have. In order to replace the Republic pilots, you would need an excess amount of pilots to fill the training gap that would occur.

Unless the replacement airline pays what Endeavor is paying, it will not succeed.

Because the JR RaH pilots will jump ship first, followed by mid seniority pilots.

Look what happened to Envoy. Strong no vote and where everybody went? PSA and MESA.

I could see the same happening in a couple of months if RAH goes down the road.

billyho 07-27-2015 02:51 PM


Originally Posted by PilotJ3 (Post 1938497)
Because the JR RaH pilots will jump ship first, followed by mid seniority pilots.

Look what happened to Envoy. Strong no vote and where everybody went? PSA and MESA.

I could see the same happening in a couple of months if RAH goes down the road.


Already happening. They are showing up in PDT's Ground Schools.
:eek:

SmitteyB 07-27-2015 02:54 PM

You guys have got to relax. RAH isn't going anywhere.

I agree this is a huge push by BB and the RAA to get relief from 1500 hour rule. This creates massive publicity and allows BB to go to the aviation subcommittee and and say- we are about to put 7000 employees out of jobs.

Let's relax, breathe, and understand that RAH has long term CPAs which can be used as collateral to borrow against. As well as the equity in already owned EJETS.

FirstClass 07-27-2015 02:57 PM


Originally Posted by SmitteyB (Post 1938503)
You guys have got to relax. RAH isn't going anywhere.

I agree this is a huge push by BB and the RAA to get relief from 1500 hour rule. This creates massive publicity and allows BB to go to the aviation subcommittee and and say- we are about to put 7000 employees out of jobs.

Let's relax, breathe, and understand that RAH has long term CPAs which can be used as collateral to borrow against. As well as the equity in already owned EJETS.

You are underestimating the situation. Maybe they're playing games maybe not, but RAH will fail. It will happen. It must happen. 1/3 of all airline pilots will soon be retiring, there isn't enough pilots to fill that void.

RAH will be one of the first simply because they are not wholly owned.

This is happening.

LeadFoot 07-27-2015 02:59 PM


Originally Posted by SmitteyB (Post 1938503)
You guys have got to relax. RAH isn't going anywhere.

I agree this is a huge push by BB and the RAA to get relief from 1500 hour rule. This creates massive publicity and allows BB to go to the aviation subcommittee and and say- we are about to put 7000 employees out of jobs.

Let's relax, breathe, and understand that RAH has long term CPAs which can be used as collateral to borrow against. As well as the equity in already owned EJETS.

lol you're right about publicity. Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, and others are already all over this news story.

SmitteyB 07-27-2015 03:05 PM


Originally Posted by FirstClass (Post 1938504)
You are underestimating the situation. Maybe they're playing games maybe not, but RAH will fail. It will happen. It must happen. 1/3 of all airline pilots will soon be retiring, there isn't enough pilots to fill that void.

RAH will be one of the first simply because they are not wholly owned.

This is happening.

Well, you are a notorious flame-baiter, so your opinion and posts don't hold much water.

I don't personally believe that we will see a "catastrophic collapse" of the regional model like many of you suggest. It will shrink as the big 3 add small narrow body airplanes, but the network carriers will not function without a cheap feed system. They can't compete with the likes of SWA without it. It's too important to the NAS. The majors will preserve their cheap feed. They are obsessed with it. Look at how many regionals are now flying for AA. The whipsaw is the tool to keep labor costs at regionals AND mainline in check.

There will absolutely be relaxation of the 1500 hour rule. They will get it. To think otherwise is foolish.

This is just the beginning. RAH will survive.

SkylineAviation 07-27-2015 03:06 PM


Originally Posted by SmitteyB (Post 1938503)
You guys have got to relax. RAH isn't going anywhere.

I agree this is a huge push by BB and the RAA to get relief from 1500 hour rule. This creates massive publicity and allows BB to go to the aviation subcommittee and and say- we are about to put 7000 employees out of jobs.

Let's relax, breathe, and understand that RAH has long term CPAs which can be used as collateral to borrow against. As well as the equity in already owned EJETS.

No doubt they are pushing for repeal or other changes to the law, but this is much deeper than that. You don't let your stock fall 50%+ in a single day, and analysts don't arbitrarily downgrade the stock just for political posturing. Nor do you hire an external consulting firm just to prove a point. There is something much bigger going on. I'm not saying it's the end of RAH but this is not just BB or others pushing for regulatory change or publicity.


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