Am I missing something?
 

I am looking to possibly submit my application to Envoy but I need a sanity check here. They sound good long term. However, short term they aren't the best.

I am a ATP minimum pilot with no 121 experience, and I need some advice.

Envoy is offering me:
1. $5,000 signing bonus (Two-Year Training Contract)
2. ATP-CTP
3. Flow-through to American Airlines (5.5 Year Estimate)
4. Upgrade time (2.5 Year Estimate)
5. Flight benefits AAG
__________________________________________________ ________

Estimated Income:
Year 1: $23,400 ($26/hr @ 75hrs/mo)
Year 2: $31,500 ($35/hr @ 75hrs/mo)
Year 3: $49,950 ($38/hr -> $73/hr @ 75hrs/mo) Upgrade should happen around 2.5 years
Year 4: $67,500 ($75/hr @ 75hrs/mo)
Year 5: $69,300 ($77/hr @ 75hrs/mo)
Year 6: $70,200 ($79/hr -> $77/hr @ 75hrs/mo) Move to AA around 5.5 years.

Total Income 6 Years: $311,850
__________________________________________________ _________

I understand that that income listed above is in a "perfect world" and that the odds of everything happening as promised most likely will not happen in those exact time frames.

I've looked at many of the other airlines, SkyWest, Endeavor, Mesa and they are currently making slightly more money. However, they aren't "guaranteed" flow-through.

So do I chase the money, or do I take a risk and go for a flow-through program? Which airline would you guys advise your friend to go to and why?

I hope that you enjoy being a First Officer on reserve for at least 3 years, and then at least a year more after you are holding a line.

Why not? As far as being on reserve for several years it like the tide may be turning. I'm flying with line holding first officers that are right at the 2 year mark on the CRJ. Sure there are some senior Fo's bidding reserve on purpose but my count only puts it at 5% of current fo's. Add in the latest vacancy bid for another 80+ captains and it seems like things are starting to move.


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Impressive research. If you can help it, don't commute, but if you have to, avoid commuting to reserve as best you can. You will have to decide what is more important to you. Money, schedule, driving to work, etc. I was fortunate enough to find an airline that offered all of the above (I did have to commute for the 1st 6 months).

Is there a such thing as a guaranteed flow through? Maybe someone can chime in on this.

You are going to be on reserve forever, your life is going to suck and while you're on reserve you will be making minimum pay. Any extra flying you pick up on your days off will take a toll on your QOL.

This is the best advice that I can give you:

Go with a regional where you'll be on reserve the least, so that you can start building the 121 SIC asap, and then go with a regional that will let you upgrade as soon as you hit the 1000 hours SIC so that you can start building TPIC asap. There's a few out there.....and yeah, they may not offer flow....but do you really think, with the state of the industry, that any type of "flow" is going to be needed 6 years from now?

#3 - slightly low but not too ridiculously far off, provided they go against their nature and honor the flow as they are supposed to (but haven't been).

#4 - You have a better chance at having an orgy with all of the current Victoria's Secret Angels than a 2.5 year upgrade at envoy.

Actually, ORD EMJ FO is down to less than 18 months. In less than a year, it went from 4 years to 18 months. Anyone care to guess where that trend will leave RSV time in another year?

But, you know, DaOldMan is a PSA pilot so he is probably a good unbiased source of information about envoy.





Since we are on the subject, Old Man, since the PSA quick upgrade train has left the station and PSA is staffed with a lot of low time Captains and First Officers, it isn't likely that PSA will have much attrition outside of the flow and lateral movers. Given the fact that the last few PSA new hire classes were in the 5 - 7 range, how long do you expect the PSA Reserve time to jump up to? My guess is you think it will get very long or else you were spend so much time trying to tear other companies down.

It's possible a portion(or all) of Republic's AA E175s could end up at Envoy in the next couple of years.

Envoy just posted 87 upgrades. It should be this way for some time, considering 1400 pilots above you will be gone to AA in 3/4 years.

By the end of the year the upgrade should be down to 6/5 yr guys. End of 2017 it should be down to 4 years.

I would say others might have "fast" upgrade, but that is for someone with 1,000 P121. At the end is your call, try not to commute and look at your career for the long haul. Any WO carrier will be better positioned that NonWO in about a year or two.

It's not too late to apply to be a truck driver. Or an underwater welder.

Maybe, maybe not. It's a good thing to have in your back pocket while you go after other legacies or LCCs and that falls through. Until the flow through train stops moving (if/when) it's guaranteed movement for the time being.

I am not sure that anyone could really tell you what will happen. Not even Parker, Bedford or the Judge. They all will have their individual plans but will all influence the process along with the creditor committee.

One can only look at the various actions and speculate. For instance, I found it quite interesting that Delta has not petitioned the court to be on the Creditor's Committee. That tells me that Delta is little interest in furthering its relationship with RAH. That tells me that we will very likely see RAH drop Delta flying.

It is also interesting that after years of attempts by envoy's MEC and CEO to institute a bonus program and being turned down by Parker, that all of a sudden, the same week that RAH files BK that AAG is in a big rush to institute bonus programs for current and potential pilots. AAG, as the guarantor of most of RAH "American Eagle" jets, has the first call on assuming the ownership of those aircraft. They could give them to Compass, SkyWest or envoy almost overnight. All anyone can do is speculate but it is interesting that AAG suddenly has become motivated to attract current 121 pilots.

We could argue the advantages of a WO or non WO to the end of time but most businesses like stability and controllability. Given the current and more importantly, the future volatile environment of Regional Airlines, WO have the clear advantage in those regards.

I'd look at PDT over Envoy for the flow. Envoys flow cuts down significantly for new hires than it for people flowing now. At least PDTs flow estimates are backed up somewhat by math.

We haven't had many new hires on the "flow for after Oct2011 and After DOS", less than 200 guys. Once it gets done with the Protected Pilots, those guys should be gone in about a year or two.

Envoy flow is by percentage, at the end of the year 50% of all the AA NH (including PDT and PSA), have to be envoy pilots.

You must be a recruiter for Envoy

Try endeavor out. North of 50k your first year. One month of reserve,upgrade in 2 yrs and interview with delta. Sounds like a no Brainerd to me.
I had a flow once. They can go away.

Pm.me and I can help you out.

That won't last forever.

It's been a while since I did the research and associated math but IIRC

I believe the flow drops from 50% with X hold backs to 35% with X hold backs then it becomes the lesser of X and 25%

I believe PSA and PDT each get the lesser of X and 25%, which is the same verbiage envoy new hires are under.

PSA's flow is 20 years for a new hire based on math so they're out. That leaves PDT vs Envoy. Based on the size of the pilot group and the Less of X and 25% flow with y opt-outs PDT should flow much faster.

Easy cowboy easy, Old Man is not PSA. He is mainline pilot lost in regional world still trying to grow his d...k by trolling on APC.
Besides of that PSA is not a bad place to be except the pay is sub par.

That was 87 upgrades this month? If so that's 1,044/year that can't be right.


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I wouldn't base your decision on the possibility of a Flow. Flows have historically not worked out as advertised or originally designed.

Do you currently live or are you willing to move to any bases of any currently desirable Regionals (Endeavor, Envoy, Compass, etc.)?

I'd put a great deal of weight/emphasis on the ability to avoid commuting and maximizing QOL.

Interesting... Do you have actual numbers for this?


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I plan on living wherever I get based. Where I live right now would make commuting a nightmare.


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You'll have to ask each of the pilot groups what their numbers are today.

I believe PDTs baseline flow is 3/month (and just reached 4) and PSA is 4/month.

I'm sure someone from each can give the verbiage of the LOAs again to show where they max out at.

PDT and PSA flow is not percentage.

Envoy flow is 824 is 50% or metered down to 30 a month. At the end of year ENY has to be 50%.

Protected pilots are 50%, metered to 25 a month. Once the 40th 175 arrives into property, which is about the same time the last of the 824 leaves to aa. At the end of the year 50% has to be envoy pilots.

I would say the last of that group might be around 1600/1700 seniority. Then it goes down to 35%, metered I believe to 15.

Do you have the end of year language handy? I often hear that at the end of the year the flow has to be at 50% on here but I have yet to see the language.

There was a vacancy posted for 87 CA vacancies. However, current CA can bid from one equipment to another, I expect some senior pilots whom will retire from ENY to bid DCE to DCL. If there are no backfills then we could see the vacancy carry a minimum of 61 net upgrades. If there are backfill then we could see 87 new upgrades. Please don't plan on 87 upgrades and later be disappointed.

The PSA flow as of right now is 5 a month. With the max going up to 8 a month. But that all hinges on how many new hires and upgrades happen. And right now it is not happening. As someone has stated before, we have barely 7 new hires in a class.

Just to clarify, only 30% of the captain vacancy slots can go to current captains.

Envoy's is currently 50%, and will be cut back to 35% pretty soon.
PSA is 5 per month right now, increasing to 8 per month, which will be ~25%
PDT is 4 per month.

By next year, expect Envoy and PSA to be about the same size and 35% of all new hires at AA. This will increase quite a bit if ALPA and APA finish their negotiations and 100% of all new hires come from the WO's.

I would not be surprised if it ends up with PSA and Envoy at 40% and PDT at 20%.

Absolutely, 70% of 87 is 61, thus a minimum of 61 new CA upgrades.

Hearing a lot of rumors that AAG wants 100% of its 2017 new hires to come from its flow up through the wholly owneds. If so, that would be crazy movement at the AAG regionals.

If AAG could make their flow program actually work, it would be all that it would need to keep their regionals full.

If people were guaranteed a mainline job at AA in 5-6 years, but had to start at PDT/PSA/Envoy, many would take it. But, unless it is proven to actually work, it is useless as a bargaining tool.

This sounds like something Mason said was going to happen for Eagle pilots back in '14. Wouldn't believe it until I saw it.

Not 100% correct - the flow right now under the 824 agreement is 50%, meterable to 30. After the 824, the protected pilot group starts at 35% until the delivery of the 40th 175. At that point, it returns to 50% (we are currently ahead of schedule of 175 deliveries) until the last protected pilot flows. Then it drops to 35%. That is sometime off though, unless you are saying the flow will be fast...

The end of the 824 and the 40th 175 will have very little gap, if any at all. It will be a while until your possible future comes to fruition without violating the envoy contract.

From Letter 15-01:

Upon delivery of the 40th EMB-175 as set forth in Appendix D, and assuming there are still pilots who were added to the Envoy master seniority list on or before October 11, 2011 who have not yet been offered a flow through opportunity, 50% of all AA new hire training slots, no fewer than 25 per month (subject to the 50%), shall go to such Envoy pilots, until the point in time when the next pilot on the Envoy master seniority list to be offered a flow through opportunity was hired after October 11, 2011.

As awesome as that would be, that wouldn't make much sense. They can be most selective with OTS applicants now and don't have to risk creating huge staffing issues at all three of the WOs simultaneously, forcing them to raise compensation there to attract applicants.

A couple of points:

The number of pilots between the Protected Pilot group (flows at 25/month) and newhires is still very small because Envoy has not hired many that have stuck around. I don't have the actual numbers in front of me, but I believe it's less than 300 pilots. So get in as soon as you can, if you're coming for the flow.

2nd point:

While PDT is projecting a fast flow, their numbers are based on their seniority list growing rapidly. As we've already seen at PSA, tripling the size of an airline is full of growing plains and is not likely to be as smooth as projected.

Envoy's flow is set in the contract and the numbers will not vary depending on the size of our seniority list.


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Where are these Angles? I was told 2.5 years. How much does Viagra cost?

It took 4 pages, but someone finally got the numbers right. PDT's current flow rate is slower than Envoy's.