This comment offends me.

Do you need "safe space" for those hurtful words?? ;)

If you want your questions answered in a professional manner. Go to jetcareers.

If you want your questions answered with heavy doses of snark, in a steel cage death match. With a rusty spoon, and a Mortal Combat fatality finisher. You post here.

This is a good site, with lots of info, but you just gotta wade threw a lot stuff to find that golden kernel.

I was really hoping someone else would be offended to show solidarity.

Welcome to the forums. Take everything you read here with a grain of salt. You're going to find 2 types of people here....the ones who already find you annoying before you even wrote your first post and the ones who genuinely want to help you. This forum, albeit having a ton of great folks, also houses 99% of the 2% of pilots who are bitter, discontent and right out do*che ridden that will always find a way to make it seem as if the glass is half empty. So, if you find people being snarky or rude at you for asking a fair question, try to ignore them.

In regards to your question, yeah the regionals will still be here in 5-10 years but the role they will play will not be as significant as it is today, with the 50% of all domestic flying they currently do.

The biggest issue they face now besides the obvious is that there's just not enough new pilots being churned out in colleges, universities and mom and pop shops that will fill the void from the BOTTOM once the majors start hiring for real. The demand is too high and the supply of newly minted 1500 hour CFIs is dwindling down to a halt (metaphorically speaking).

What will happen is that the majors will absorb some of the regional flying and regional flying will finally go back to being regional flying, as in, transporting people from tiny cities to major hubs (nowadays, regionals do mainline flying all the time).

This only means good news for all pilots because as the regionals will have a hard time keeping up with the demand of the majors, the majors will start placing more pilots into 100-seaters being put under their certificates, wether it's E190s or CS100s that will satisfy the "regional" routes that are currently being flown by 76-seaters as a test bed that transfers into 100+ seaters because of the demand.

Also remember that even though almost everyone at the regionals want to move on to something bigger and better, some simply can't....whether it's because of a thing on their record, no college degree or old age, and/or because some are simply happy to stay in the regional world forever as they have gotten too comfortable with their seniority, their days off and the plane they fly. Besides, you can easily make $80-100k a year as a senior Captain at a regional and to some people, that's more than enough.

Point is, these are great times to enter this career, and even though things could get worse, they'll probably never get as bad as they used to be.

Yes very offensive comment. He really surprises me too because he is usually very professional in his postings.

Never go full retard. I'm a vet but didn't fly in the military. Even with more 121 time than a fighter guys total time, I'd have a snowballs chance in hell getting hired over him/her. So it probably has something to do with another ASSUMED trait they possibly posses.

I guess it's the fault in our stars!

First thing if your looking for honest answers you don't start a thread
with this title. I find it hard to believe you got a CFI with that little
sense.

Thanks for the spelling out reality.

Not meant for you kind sir, I was answering the question of someone who doesn't know it all and is looking for a direction for his future endeavors.

Thanks for the sarcasm though, I needed some to start my day off.

I don't know why people keep saying the regionals won't exist or people aren't willing to fly for the regionals yet somehow they keep chugging along. Skywest had 78 new hires in April . Endeavor, commutair, and now even XJT have full classes. Think about that , there is no flying for XJT to do past Dec 31, 2017 and they are getting new hires! That says it all. People in here like to talk about a pilot shortage but in reality there isn't one. Regionals aren't going anywhere so everybody should probably dial back the excitement. There's plenty of pilots.

They aren't going anywhere just yet, but there will be contraction. 2016 has just been the very tip of the iceberg when it comes to the retirements at mainline. By 2018 things will be in absolute full swing and only increasing every year after that for a long time to come. 2016 has already been a year full of surprises and we aren't even to the busy summer travel season yet. 2017 will likely be even crazier in terms of industry upheaval. 2018 is when I fully expect the feces to hit the oscillator. Lots of movement off the top of seniority lists, but also lots of shrinking at the regionals combined with consolidation. In just 2 years it's hard to say what the regionals are going to look like. This industry is like a Ferris wheel. Those at the top inevitably come down, and those at the bottom eventually come up. It's all cyclical.

Did you find getting your cfi was particularly difficult?

I'll put it to you the same way a HR person put it to a group of us in a seminar a few years back. The #1 reason why military guys are preferred as new hires (in ANY industry, not just aviation) is because they know how to show up to work. Sometimes, on time, but quite frequently, ahead of time. Or words to that effect, it has been several years and MANY margaritas ago. Also, a lot of military pilots had aviation as their second job. Their first job was leading people or some sort of management skill set. The majors all want that in their future pilots. A pilot can fly a plane. A leader can fly a plane and lead people. Strive to improve your resume along these lines, and you may not be waiting nearly so long as that guy who has 10,000 hours TT yet cannot get an interview.

Also, everyone knows that a military pilot has been thru some of the best flight training in the world. Doesn't mean that every graduate is top notch, but the training was.

There are great pilots from every corner of the industry, and there are duds, and douches, as well. Civilian, foreign, and domestic civilian. Why can't we all just get along?

That is the product of newly minted CFIs with absolutely no knowledge of the industry not doing proper research. XJT now has a fancy marketing video and their recruiters are going to all these universities and convincing people that being on reserve for over 2 years and never upgrading is worth giving up because of the amazing contract.

Seriously, at this day and age it baffles me how some people will go into a place where they'll stagnate when there's regionals out there with virtually zero reserve, better pay and a 2-year upgrade.

It's kind of difficult to get along with those that label civilian pilots as second class citizens.

Good explanation. I come from the public safety sector where we were disciplined in a similar fashion as the military.

That particular knife cuts both ways, unfortunately.

And that should help you stand out among other applicants. Just have to put it at the top of your job skills. Put your flight hours near the bottom.

Face it; we all know people, from all backgrounds, who have no business being in a cockpit (or being in charge of a group of people, for that matter). Yet somehow, they make it. Probably because some CFI feels that "they will improve with time & experience".

Progress check:

What is this stage of the thunderstorm known as?

A. Mature
B. Cumulative
C. Dissipating
D. Dammit Jim I'm a doctor not a weatherman

Maybe I read it wrong, but I don't think he was being sarcastic. I thought your explanation was spot on. My timing was absolutely horrible and I got hit with 9/11, 2008 recession and age 65. I think it is pretty exciting that someone getting in the industry right now won't have to deal with all of that, but there most likely will be something that comes up in their career. Someone with 1,500 hours looking for a job right now will definitely have a different experience that what I had coming in. And hopefully they have empathy and will listen to the more veteran folks when we don't want to sell out scope or QOL for a few extra dollars and promises from management.

I'm absolutely with ya and hit everything at the worst possible time. Five furloughs and six airlines later I'm starting again. Guys coming out of school now have it made, and I'm glad for them...obviously we don't have any control over when we are born. I'm just hoping for a shot this time around at making it end as I had envisioned. These are indeed exciting times!

I applaud all of you who stuck with it, through (mostly) thin. The upheavals, hard times, stress, uncertainty; all of it must have taken quite a toll on many families. I feel so lucky to be getting into this career today, but will always remember that it wasn't so good, for so many, for so long. Congrats on sticking it out, and may the rest of your years in this industry be much easier than the past has been.

True, but the point I'm trying to make is that there are "newly minted CFIs " . There are enough of them to go to Skywest and there are enough of them to go to XJT and stagnate. I might believe there was a pilot shortage if those 78 new hires were dispersed amongst all the regionals. But 78 for ONE regional? Lots of pilots out there.

I tend to agree with you. I guess we would have to look into the data ie number of student starts, number of cfi's issued, number of new people added to seniority lists each month etc..

Validation, need much?

And 63 seniority list members went to different pastures. 12 were training departures, so when you get hired for your ability to fog a mirror and get to the training facility on the right day don't think that it's in the bag, you got your assigned sims and a maximum of 10 additional hours of sim to get it to type ride standards. Don't forget the additional risk of IOE, every thing you do and touch is being notated for posterity. 10% are going home without an ID. And no, the panic at the corporate level is palpable, and the training department is getting very astute at deciding when to cut the losses and buy you a ticket home. In my class 1 of 6 new hires went home without an ID.
Assuming you make it through IOE you still have the luxury of probation and working for at an at will company. The deal is never truly sealed. PRIA is not your friend either.....

This might be the most depressing write up of the first year at a regional I've ever heard....

Whaaaaa......these are definitive verifiable facts.
Reality bites?
Anybody that thinks that any airline, even a regional, is going to incur the liability of putting a marginally qualified pilot in a turbojet aircraft, filled with paying passengers, is delusional. It might get away for a while, but ask where Colgan, Comair and Pinchanickle are today. This fogging a mirror hiring policy will come to a screeching halt once the first 175 hits a mountainside, or goes off the end of the runway and burns. The next legislation will make 117 look like unicorn hair and rainbows, combined with Korean soft core porn. And it won't be written by the industry, it will be written by legislators who's feet are being roasted by the victims families, and history.
Simple economics:
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/17/bu...fe&st=cse&_r=0
Take all the seats, multiply by a number of your liking, and at 175 levels it comes closer to Trump money than Ghandi numbers.

What is the trait you think others assume they have? Top performers in training perhaps?

Typical... the government ends up creating the pilot shortage by trying to prevent bad pilots from being hired, but the solution causes bad pilots to be hired at a much faster rate.

Former military members have a few life skills embedded. They know how to show up on time, are trainable and understand being part of an organization. And for many, this is way easier than doing push-ups in the mud or cleaning waste recipticles. Give me an enlisted F/O who learned to fly on his/her own vs a CFI living in his parents basement any day, sorry they just work out better.

It's finance and statistics combined. To get a sampling off of the bell curve that is optimal, and preferred, compensation needs to be commensurate. It currently isn't, and pilot who as little a 5 years ago wouldn't even be considered for an interview are being welcomed with open arms, and resultant failure numbers support this this. The options are
#1 increase pay to attract a larger pool of qualified applicants
#2 increase training costs to bring up the skill level of the applicants
available.
When 1# becomes cheaper than 2# pay will increase, and it has, unfortunately for the industry it has only attracted the "dreamers" who ultimately aren't the optimal candidates.
Let's face it this industry isn't for everybody, long hours every day, hotels, poor food and extended time away from family means attracting new qualified candidates is going to become exponentially expensive in pay and work rules. It's getting real.

The pilot shortage was created by the guys who tried to depart on the wrong, short runway or the 410 club a$$hats, or 3407 clown show.
The simple fact is people don't want to die in fiery plane crash or be killed in their recliner watching David Letterman, when 2 idiots drop a plane on his house, or an unsat who thought that stall somehow meant pull up, and his partner in stupidity somehow thought removing flaps uncommanded was a good idea at low altitude.
Sorry.......you don't have to like it, but you gotta own it.

Look up the washout rates in the military flight schools--this ain't beanbag. There are standards, you have a timeline to meet them or it's the train ride home. UPT week could start with an excellent ride on Monday and out the door the next Monday. Embrace it.

GF

I never mentioned anything about military training, and while I completely agree that you have to perform or its over its not like there's an axe over your head 24/7 for your first year. Painting it as all doom and gloom is not realistic

Want guarantees, head over to Best Buy and get some cell phone insurance. Piloting is a nonstop process of monitoring, from line checks, PCs, recurrent ACARS, and the other guysitting next to you. Yes, ACARS, the company can tell what you are doing in real time via data link, plenty of data channels. Never mind the constant medical poking and prodding, guys always want to avoid Dr Jellyfinger, and want the gimme medical, but EKGs, pee tests, and the multitude of other diagnostic possibilities, mean your onset Diabetes won't be missed and it will not be simple to get back in the saddle. I watch young guys deal with these issues regularly, no one is immune, have a back up plan, because you could walk out of your AMEs door without a medical with little notice.
But, hey it could never happen to you right? It's always the other guy that has it happen to him......you could be the other guy.

Okay nut job....

You do realize that the Colgan pilots were well over 1500 hours, right? :rolleyes:

The cause of the accident was poor training and sleep deprivation. TT had nothing to do with it. Congress DID change the rest rules at least which did actually make sense.



So you forget that there is also the possibility that Congress could relax the rules at any time. They have created an artificial scarcity which following econ 101 leads to not only a price increase but a supply decrease. So much so that the current business model is no longer sustainable in the long term.

The point? The economics of ATP air travel are out of whack, specifically the labor side, and the market will continue to attempt to seek equilibrium until it has achieved equilibrium. One way to achieve it quickly is to change the rules.