Death of the Regionals
 

Currently a CFI, just joined APC. Looks like there's a lot of knowledgeable folks on here. Would like opinions from you guys on whether or not the regionals will be around in the next few years. Looking forward to the responses/debates.

Lemme check my crystal ball and I'll get back to you.

thank you sweetheart

Will the Redsox win the world series? Remember, theres no such thing as a stupid question, only stupid people.

As a Cfi getting close to 1500, I think about this sometimes too. I'm sure we will see some regionals either disappear or merge, but I think they'll still be around for a while. Really big ones like republic may shrink a bit as mainline takes back the flying, but I'm sure there will still be jobs for us

If you're starting flight training anytime soon or further along than that, there will be plenty of regional stepping stone opportunities for you on the road to majors. If upgrades stall, the majors will just hire regional SIC's.

Possibility that regionals might downsize to a shadow of their current size in the long run, but if that happens the majors will probably have to do ab-initio training because THEY are going to need pilots badly.

Worst case, you'll start on a narrowbody instead of an RJ.

What will most likely happen is that Major airlines will only hire through their regional feeds, no exceptions. For example, if you want to work for American Airlines, you will first have to work for Envoy, PSA, or Piedmont (the wholly owned regionals). No exceptions. The other major airlines will also probably do something similar.

This is the only way the the airlines will be able to save their regional feed.

The way it could work is first you take a job at Republic or Skywest, then after you have built up some experience, you get hired at PSA or Envoy, work there for a few more years then flow to American.

The airlines will do what they can to preserve their feeds as long as possible.

The real question will be if we have a job this time next year with NAI coming in.

Possibly one of the dumbest things I have read on here.

I assure you its not. Try to have some vision.

If you are American Airlines, how would you preserve your regional flow?

You could:

1.) Mandate all new hires at American come through their regional feed, no exceptions including military.

2.) When the regional feed becomes as expensive as simply operating those aircraft in house, that's what you do, fly RJ's in house.

One has a large price tag. The other does not. Option 1 creates a new rung on the career ladder.

No, I agree that all civilian hires may have to come from the regional. However, military pilots will always be the first selected of pilot candidates for the majors. If you ran a company, you would understand that veterans are almost always better employees than non-veterans. Also, the only quantifiable education these days is the military academies, as even Ivy legal has become a joke.

What a gem of information

Question. Considering how the airlines are pulling most of their Pilot's from the civilian side now, who later get in to those positions of hiring other Pilots, will military Pilots really get first consideration? I know a few C-17 Pilots, with thousands of hours wide-body time, who've applied with several legacy carriers months back who haven't even received a telephone call meanwhile buddies of mine are going from SIC, spent 4-5yrs respectively, at the regionals to a legacy no problem. Thoughts on why this may be?

While I see where you're going with that, the problem becomes trying to maintain an experienced cadre of instructors, check airman, and DPEs will become very difficult as time to flow drops. Why stick around with more responsibility for less pay?

Given that Delta and United are making big investments in smaller aircraft for mainline fleets, and Delta has 900 pay rates already in their mainline CBA, I agree that up-gauging is going to continue. I'd wager that sometime in the next 5 years we'll see 900s and 175s on mainline certs. But a 100% flow presents some logistical challenges that'll sink that ship pretty soon.

On second though, as AAG is unable to see further out than the next quarterly report, maybe shooting themselves in the foot is exactly what they'll do.

What I was thinkin. :rolleyes:

You're fishing for positive answers that suggest you're all set and United will hire you right away. Unfortunately that's not realistic. Regionals will shrink somewhat over the next 5-10 years, but plan to spend at least a few years of your career at one.

No, lol, I'm not set or fishing...I'm simply interested in what people's opinions are who have the experience I don't to try to gain some understanding of this industry. The situation which I mentioned is real life and I was wanting to understand why those military pilots weren't selected over civilian pilots who came from the regionals. Please point out where I mentioned United or my desire to fly for them, I can't seem to find that statement anywhere. Do you usually tell people what they are thinking?

Who the **** knows!! Why not call said airlines and ask them about their hiring practices?!?! These ****ing threads are getting ridiculous

I think the "regionals" (as they are now made up) will not "die" for at last another 5 years. What WILL occur over that period is contraction and consolidation. In the effort to maintain more seats, smaller aircraft (and thus markets) will be the first to vaporize, ultimately ending up a 67-76 seat segment of the industry flying solely to more mid size cities and mixing in with legacy flights in many others.

Eventually though, absent a Hail Mary to bring in A LOT of fresh, new right-seat meat, another paradigm will have to be embraced.

I'm sure at one point you were where I am now and had questions you wanted answered using the resources available to you. If you are getting that frustrated by questions from people who may not know something/are new to the industry, like you did and were at one point, then why even take the time to bother with a comment? Read it, roll your eyes and move along. Lmao.

Why don't you try reading some of the threads already started on here? You know, do a little research on your own. Novel concept huh? Lots of useful information on here on numerous subjects. Hell, you may even learn something other than what you're looking for. But I guess it's easier to have everything spoon fed to you.

I get it, you're angry and you're angry because unlike you people have questions. Maybe I opened this post up because I couldn't find what I was looking for, "novel concept huh?" Lmao.

No, you don' get it all! Lmao? That explains it all. I think the second poster had it right.. Or better yet, go see a psychic, they may have the answer you're looking for. Novel concept huh? Good luck in your career, and hopefully instructors won't have to hold your hand. JA

You ask a question that you know no one can answer! Look at the numbers, make an educated guess like the rest of us. What exists today is only valid for today. Another 9/11 could happen tomorrow, or another Colgan type crash, etc. Maybe American will try to pull a NAI on its pilot group, who knows. All I know is that you're not qualified today to do this job, fix that problem first.

What are you guys talking about, I already gave him the answer. Your stupid answers do nothing but take up space, completely useless. Maybe they should just close the forum down since everything has been answered already.

Last word
Filler...

You're absolutely right. We should all flock to the wholly-owned shops because that will be our only shot at a legacy. Do you even listen to yourself speak? Do those words actually sound legit to you?

This thread gave me cancer.

Yup. One knows how to be a 121 pilot while the other has never called for push.

Military guys should do a year or two at a regional. It would be a easier transition to mainline and it's a humbling experience living on poverty wages.

You mean like when they were in college or brand new LTs?

If you are just getting into aviation now and are under 30 why would you care about the regionals? You want to work for a regional for your whole career? The question you should be asking is whether or not the major airlines as we know them now will be around when you are 60. Or are you going to have to fly to Asia to interview for a US "mainline" job. I'd prepare myself for a possible career change, there are too many forces working against pilots in the future.

Why are veterans better than non veterans in terms of a better employee? What an asinine remark.

Who will be the first regional to fail? Air Wisconsin - future seems cloudy? Expressjet erj side contract comes to an end in 2017? Gojet - horrible performance and making daddy d mad? Silver? I see the wholly owns doing ok, Skywest filling classes just fine, Mesa with their crappy pay is still filling classes, Republic -who knows how they will emerge but they will emerge leaner and better suited to fulfill their contracts... TSA would be better off if they didn't bite off more than they can chew being unable to staff their newly added flying. Endevor is filling classes. Eventually someone is going down.

Johnny,

Please look at the last 40 years, or 40 weeks, of legacy hiring and that should prove Mesabah's point. The airlines seem to prefer ex-military pilots.

GF

I think the reason he said that is because of EO laws and such. Showing a certain percentage of veterans on the roster is good PR. Besides im fairly certain that the companys get a level of tax breaks for having veterans on property. In that case yes the veteran may be the better candidate.

Of course Im probably wrong, so disregard the ramblings of another regional pilot ;)

In that respect, that's a good point. Which is why I asked him why.

It's just politically correct to do so. They're every bit as inferior though as any new hire fo.

I'm not sure. Entitlement doesn't discriminate though. Not saying there aren't the 20 something year old CFIs who think they derserve to be at Delta within two years. National seniority would help solve this IMO.

I feel for the guys and gals that got burned with 9/11, 2008 and age 65.

As an AA CA told me, the entire culture of the mainlines will change with retirements. Numbers speak for themselves, will be no choice but to have the majority of pilots coming from the civilian world over the next two decades. The people retiring now are mostly former military, the people doing the hiring of tomorrow will be mostly civilian.
One should not worry about these details however, effort is better spent making yourself more attractive to the mainlines.