Are the majors really in the future
 

So I was sipping some kool aid and reading some posts, and the recurring theme that I am getting is that everyone is going to eventually be at a major. I personally believe that most of this is wishful thinking, and here is why.
The average age of the regional FO is getting much younger. The majors are for the most part not growing. So in reality how much of a chance does a mid 20's new pilot coming up within the next few years actually have in making it a major? Upgrade times at some airlines (regionals) is two years, but there is no possible way that can continue. Anyone else want to chime in on this..I have more info but just dont feel like typing it out.

There is massive growth projected for the global airline industry through 2025 (and probably beyond). Most of this will occur overseas (esp. in Asia), but a fair amount will occur here, and a certain percentage of US pilots will head across the pond for adventure, better compensation, or both.

There really are a lot of pilots set to retire from a number of majors...I think AA is probably the youngest of them all at this point. Even age 65 will only delay the inevitable.

Also I think the mainline boyz and alpa are FINALLY starting to get a ******** clue about the regional phenomenon's effect on this industry...I'm really hoping that going forward they are going to lock up scope tighter than a gnats @ss.

So I think there will be some opportunity, but I also think many will get stuck at the regionals, voluntarily or otherwise.

Completely anecdotal, non-scientific evidence, but something I keep thinking about...

Ten years ago...

Cell phones were just beginning to catch on (bag phones, anyone?).
The internet was also just beginning to catch on.
Economy was booming.

Now, the economy is coming back, and technology such as cell phones, the internet, and countless other things have "sped up" our lives quite a lot. Do you think this "speeding up" is going to stop? I think not. As a result, provided a teleport system of some sort isn't thought up, people will fly more. They'll have to. If so, there will be growth. This is my hope and my belief. Hopefully I am right.

you obviously haven't seen to many delta, nwa, or united guys. they look like they are already over 65!!

The main issue is that many routes that used to be mainline are now regional routes. The majors really don't want anything to do with the domestic system, they just want their international routes. They have found regionals can get it done for a much lower cost. Yes, the major pilot groups gave in on scope. Every person that takes a regional job flying a jet, especially one more than 50 seats is eliminating their future job at a major. I don't say this to be negative or trash regional pilots, but it is just the fact about the industry.

If this is true, and ultimately the majors will get out of the domestic arena, then this is just one more reason we need to push for increase in the pay for regional pilots.

Blurr
 

In the near future the line between the regionals and majors will thin to the point where there really will be no benefit to going to one other than the chance to fly a bigger plane.

Even now it would take a regional captain many years to get back to where they are in regards to pay and schedules. Soon the regionals, legacy and LCC's will be nearly on par with one another.

A pilot could earn 50K as an RJ captain or 50K as a 737 FO for a legacy. The deciding point will be bases, perceived future prospects and advancement.

SKyHigh

I couldn't agree with you more.

Growth
 

The system already has too many seats in the US. In any case the future is dependent upon the expectations of the next generation of pilots. Back when I first started on this forum I mostly defended myself from arrogant self centered and overpaid major airline captains. Those guys, for the most part, have blown away in the face of the obvious.

Now I mostly spar with 20 somethings who think that 50K is a lot of money. So long as pilots come to the table prepared to earn postman wages the future will be that of continuing losses in pay and working conditions. Pilots are not rare or difficult to come by anymore. Glass cockpits don't require a Chuck Yeager to fly them. The only thing left to prevent pilot wages from descending into the realm of minimum wage is the pilot groups resolve to not show up to work for ski instructor pay. However they seem to keep on coming with new even lower expectations.

I am beginning to miss the old arrogant "I am worth 300K a year" fat captain types.

Skyhigh

Most regional RJ CA will make about 60K-65K their first year as CA (Yr 2-3 pay) while toping out around 80K-100K. At the majors you will make 30-60K and as an FO toping out around 100K-140K (as FO). Which is a lot more than a regional CA will ever make AND you're pay schedule will almost coincide with your previous regional pay, that is until you exceed it around Yr 4-7 at the majors. Once you upgrade to CA at the majors you’ll make 130K-240K and I don't ever see any regional paying that to fly RJs. Why go to the majors? Mainly pay and equipment. Don't go there for QOL because it will take you far longer to gain it.

You are seeing this already. Who is filling the void? Spirit, Airtran and others. Spirit not so much as the others cause they really concentrate on the Caribbean, but they have a hat in the ring. Try this for speculation: RAH, Skywest, Express Jet and a few others become the domestic carriers. All flying the 90 to 100 seat jets. Just food for thought.

I guess then I am in a good position seeing how I just got hired at RAH.

Not true. I spent 9 years at a regional and was very senior at 9 year CA in the RJ. Now I'm at a major and make the same as a second year FO as I did as a 9 year CA AND get the same days off with about 50 legs less flown per month. I can get more days off too if I wanted. My quality of life improved the day I quit the regional airline. It was also gained faster than at the regional. I know not all majors are the same, but my QOL has improved more than I could have wished for. Why go to the majors? Pay, equipment, and QOL.

Yeah I fly with some guys that say they dont wanna go to CAL, I think their nuts personally.

Current Situation
 

Your numbers are a bit on the optimistic side. A few might earn that much but most are well below that number. The majors and regionals are coming closer together in terms of pay and working conditions. Each time the market takes a negative swing we will loose even more.

Jetblue, Airtran and Vrigin are setting the pace for a much lower future for pilots.

Skyhigh

Amen. The industry is in decline as far as being an employer goes. We're nothing but bus drivers to airline managers and should be paid the same.

The along come pilots who validate that opinion by going to work for B6, VX and Skybus.

Sorry guys, but you'll never get any support from me for kicking the legs out from under the industry UNION pilots have been trying to build for a 75 years.

I like your style.............................I really do:cool:

There are still too many pilots defending the current system and industry trend. Many of them are just afraid that if they stand up they will hurt their future in flying. We are starting to hit the floor of the industry because nobody is in flight school anymore and they are having increasing trouble finding pilots. How far the current pilots are willing to stretch will determine the future.

Pilots
 

The local FBO might be loosing students however UND, ERAU and ATP can supply our national pilot needs indefinitely. The guy who wants his private for a Saturday $100 hamburger is becoming a thing of the past but people with professional intentions are stronger than ever.

I mean haven't you heard? The regionals are hiring!!!

SkyHigh

Enrollment's been down at my alma mater for the past five years. I didn't go to any one of the schools that you mentioned, but it was/is a larger 141 school with a fleet of 40. How are the enrollments elsewhere, ERAU/UND grads?

NEW fall term undergrad students in the aero sci major, both ERAU campuses:

1999 817
2000 834
2001 822
2002 713
2003 656
2004 676
2005 625
2006 705

What the hell happened in 2006? Here I was hoping we were on our way to seeing that vampire of a school wiped from the face of the earth.

Hope
 

We can only hope. In 2006 there were 4000 fewer student pilot licenses issued. AOPA is very concerned.

However haven't you heard? The regionals are hiring !!:confused: I think they will always come no matter what the pay is. Even now we have enough furloughed, underemployed or laid off pilots to last for a decade at least.

SkyHigh

Do you really think that most of those currently furloughed pilots aren't employed by other regionals or majors? Yes there are a lot but the ones who are not flying are so by their own choice. Also, the airlines are projecting over 8000 pilots hired every year though 2025, that includes the majors and regionals. So you say a decade worth of pilots? Show me where these 80,000 pilots are?

Don't forget that if you’re furloughed by US Airways and get hired by UPS, FedEx, SWA, etc you still are listed on US Airways furlough list until you resign or are called back and decline. Of all the pilots furloughed I would say that a fraction aren't elsewhere, even if they are just waiting to get recalled, their employed.

Ah, well...we can still hope for more divine intervention. Maybe next Christmas.

There are less pilots to choose from, but the actions of those presently there will determine the future. Too many pilots are still afraid to say anything because they care more about flying than their actual compensation for doing so.

There is no way any kind of shortage of pilots out there. The pay scales reflect that. It called Supply and Demand. Since there is such a high supply of pilots out there and few jobs the pay scales go down. Period. Don’t buy into the propaganda that there will be a shortage of pilots for the airlines, that propaganda is being used by the flight schools and colleges everywhere to sell there service! Creating pilots...
I like the arguments about unions and see both sides of that coin but whenever I hear someone talking about a shortage of pilot in the industry I have to laugh. Numbers and statistics can be manipulated in anyway to present the data with a desired outcome. Guess what the flight schools want new enrollments are one coming up with these false numbers of pilot shortages.
Just my 2 cents. :o

I agree, there is no shortage until the wages come up big time. That gets harder and harder with a new LCC starting up every other week, with thousands of pilots banging down the doors to work for the lowest wages possible all for the promise of a fast upgrade.

The University I work for continues to grow every year. When I was a student in 94-98 we had about 50-60 students flying. Now we are 200+ with 25 planes. Also.....our sales pitch isn't "Shortage of pilots". We sell the school. Then, when they come to school, I try to pass on the word of the industry. Its not OK to settle for the first shinny jet they can get into for peanuts or often time less. I can't reach all of them though, once SJS sets in it can be like cancer!

Numbers
 

I don't know where you are getting your information. Those numbers most likely are in regards to the entire world. Even so it only takes six months to create an airline pilot out of a ski instructor.

In the last month there have been a few articles referenced on this forum that indicate the opposite of your assumptions. A large percentage of furloughed major airline pilots have chosen employment outside of aviation since there are not any real options a pilot can get flying that can replace the pay and benefits at a major.

Some day there might be a shortage of people willing to do the job of airline pilot for the pay and benefits offered but does that really mean that there is an opportunity that is going to be worth having? Currently there is a shortage of migrant farm workers but the pay is still low and conditions poor.


SkyHigh

http://www.fltops.com/article.asp?ID=4570

I can post more articles if you like.

My father is retired American former Braniff. My mother retired FA and most all of our family friends are former or current airline pilots. My sources are from the current industry and may credited online reports. I don't want to argue with you, the bottom line is, even if you just count the regionals alone there will be more than 5000 pilots hired in 07. SKW is on pace to top 700 themselves.

Most all majors are now hiring. (SWA, AirTran, Delta, UPS, FedEx, Alaska, United, etc)

The FAA numbers do indicate much lower numbers of certificates being issued. There may still be enough pilots at least for the time being, but unless they shrink the combined U.S. fleet there may be some problems.

Pilots
 

As I have mentioned before there is significant evidence that there are at least 30,000 to 60,000 commercial grade pilots who quit flying (or never really started) let their medicals lapse and are sitting on the sidelines. If conditions at the airlines were to improve tomorrow I am sure that many would get current medicals and go back to work.

Everyone is talking about a pilot shortage but forget that over the last 5 years there has been almost zero hiring at the majors. We have lost so much over the last few years that it will take a long time to get back to where we should be.

DAL is hiring again after a reduction in force. The new hires are replaceing pilots who chose not to return.

Out on my college graduating class less than 10% are still flying. They could be easily be tempted back if the industry came even close to being worthwhile.

SKyHigh

Losses
 

Most likely the regional hiring boom is about played out. The majors are going to pick up a few but after 5 years of layoffs and furloughs they will have to hire a huge amount in order to make a difference. The military alone trains 11,000 new pilots a year.

The real question is, will the jobs be worth having? Increased hiring does not equate to better pay and working conditions. The regionals have been hiring like mad and the pay is still poor.

I am sure that in the future anyone who wants one will be able to find a flying job, but it will be because no one will want the job anymore.

SkyHigh

The guys on the sidelines are not getting any younger and the airlines cannot possibly make it worth it for them to come back. They would be starting at entry level seniority, there is just no way. So what we are left with is the new guys.

SFLPILOT is right. Why would someone who is successful in another occupation return to the airline flying after a significant absence. I left professional aviation and went into teaching and management. Sailplanes (SSA) and sport aviation (EAA) is where I got my aviation fix. I could have bailed out on a $75,000 a year job (home every night) ten years ago and become a junior First Officer.

"What you have left is the new guys." Take care of your new FO. Mentor and teach him/her. Someday he/she might be giving you a line check.:eek:

This Number is way High. like 5 Times too high. I don't think the Military even produces 11000 Officers a year.

The military does not train 11,000 new pilots a year...not even close. Laughlin AFB puts out about 160-200 pilots a year. That is one of only three bases that the AF trains at. I would have to say the navy is about the same.

Military pilot training production was low in the 1990s. When training numbers picked up after 2000, the USAF committment after graduation was increased to ten years. I don't know what the Navy or Army commitments were. Unless the military institutes an early out because of budget considerations, most young military pilots will serve well into 2010-2017.

After 6 months of being away from APC - I see SkyHigh is still in his ways.

:)

Very good discussion though, good first thread to return to APC with.

When I was looking into joining up to fly (about a year and a half ago), all the fixed wing commitments were 2 yrs of training, followed by two 4 yr terms. so 10 total years.