Which regionals are growing, or not?
 

Where would I find factual data on which regionals are growing, shrinking, fixed size, etc.?
Ideally, it would be by active fleet composition and size, failing which an active pilot population would give some information too....

Factual - not anecdotal...

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I hear they have all the latest on each airline.

PSA - has grown from 400 pilots to 1200 in the last 3 years. Still adding at least 35 CRJ-700s starting in early spring. Expected size of pilot group is 2,200, which is an increase of 500 per year for the next 2 years in addition to attrition. Currently, new hire classes are about 50 pilots per month and upgrading 24 per month.

;-D
Latest snapshot - yes. But I would need the snapshot from one two three etc years ago to build a trend

You must be management and/or a pilot recruiter because your math is terrible. PSA grew from 500 pilots to 1200, that's a 700 gain. 35 planes are coming over to PSA from Envoy. That's a need of 350 pilot, so total will be close to 1500 not 2200. When you here management state 2200 pilots, you must use some common sense and realize that number makes zero sense unless a large number of additional planes come over which is not possible because American is almost scoped out on large RJs. The only way for PSA to grow further beyond 150 planes/1600 pilots, is for PSA to get planes from other non-wholly owned regionals. All those regionals have long term contracts, so one carrier would need to go bankrupt to end their contracts. How likely is that scenario?

Horizon, wants to grow while flying turboprops, 4 year seatlock, concessionary contract and now a bonus outside of the contract... lovely, go there!

SkyWest seems to be holding steady at ~4,100 on the seniority list.

So no ideas on on where to find this data??

I don't think there is data like this out there in one place. The regional scene is ever changing. Who's growing today may be shrinking tomorrow and vice-versa. Just look at Compass: growing like crazy and suddenly shrinking. There's no airline that is immune to this unpredictable instability. That's why everyone wants to get out asap to the majors.

The 2200 number and associated aircraft all come from upper management which takes that directly from AA. So. Yea. Bottom line AA likes our efficiency and profitability and will give us the planes if we can continue to staff and operate them in that manner. Where AA gets them from not our concern. FYI though, marketing and sales can make new contracts that don't affect old contracts. I would say this is just my two cents worth, however, this exact question was asked to the big cheese in my Indoc class and that is what was said.

My hope is that none of us are growing.

To say who is growing and who is shrinking is hard to say. One would have to see into the future to make this prediction.

Why does growth matter? Are you equating growth to upgrade time?
Growth is tied to upgrading, but attrition is also tied to upgrade time.

Some say AA is trying to maintain its regional feed as long as possible. Also it looks like they are trying to bring some of that flying back in house. This would lead me to think that the WOs would grow in the near future. But let me look in my crystal ball again to make sure.

The bottom line is the growth is only temporary. Currently it's nothing other then reshuffling of airframes. (Who can do it for cheaper while able to staff it?) If you're lucky and hit a sweet spot, you're going to upgrade quickly and enjoy senior line holder's lifestyle, if not - endless misery of reserve. I was unlucky in my first regional. Very lucky in my current one. Still trying my hardest to leave as quickly as possible, as I hope the regionals will shrink and die all together (although I realize the latter may be just wishful thinking on my side).

Republic is growing by 26 aircraft in 2017.

-12 UA
-8 AA
-6 DL

Didn't you guys lose like 40 E145s though during bankruptcy? I get it, the plane was an outlier of the fleet but I'd imagine those pilots had to go somewhere so I wouldn't say there is much growth just yet. Things seems to be returning to normal for you guys and I'm glad it is. (Even though we are donating 6 of those jets to you guys. :p)

Fact of the matter is a regional that is growing like crazy may be doing the opposite a year later.

We were peoples last resort about a year ago, this is actually positive news that our fleet isn't shrinking any further. My guess is by the time we get the additional 26 airframes we will be understaffed again.

Your pay bump was a good incentive to get people in the door. It also helped spur other airlines to raise wages.

Now we just need mesas short upgrades to go away so it puts pressure on management there /s.

They might get those United planes and that is more growth and upgrades.

Yeah keep feeding the cockroaches. JO is the problem with this industry.

ummm - nooB here - que es "JO"?

CEO of MESA Air Group.

Absolutely insane how fast that changes. Now Republic is a good place to go. Just goes to show how volatile this industry is.

Flight Benefits
 

Are there any family or buddy pass flight benefits on Republic?

Depending on who you talk to envoy is the #tit s

Is it - really ??
a lot of uncertainty while we await the emergence from bankruptcy - no?

ummm another :o NooB Q - is "#tit" good or bad?

Not really. What are we unsure of?

That's a ton of #bull ****

This industry runs on a terrible business model. "Growth" and "quick upgrades" for one pilot group typically come because another pilot group is suffering and stagnating.

GoJet benefitted to TransStates' detriment, Colgan planes went to Republic, then Republic lost those same Q400s, Comair got shut down as punishment, TransStates, Compass, PSA, and Piedmont grew with Eagle's planes while Eagle stagnated, SkyWest got Horizon's CRJs, etc.

Today's victim will be tomorrow's victor.

The worst part about the "regionals" is the terrible effect on pilots' careers by having scoped-out flying in the first place. All this flying should be mainline; unfortunately Pandora's box has been opened, and the "regionals" are here to stay, now that the "regionals" officially fly mainline equipment (E175).

You are correct to an extent, but do you think it will make a difference now that American is fully merged and one big company? Seems like they are dumping a ton of money into their three wholly owned and cutting the flying from the contract carriers. This, to me, seems like a game changer. American doubling down on regional lift, while Delta shifts away. I dont think that American will every go totally away from contracts, but they are reducing.

Sadly, the whipsaw is alive and well. As a group, pilots are their own worst enemy. As long as naive pilots continue to chase temporary "growth" and temporary "quick upgrades," the whipsaw will thrive.

This is the fault of ALPA for letting it happen.

Yup, our excuse of a union allows one group to be F'd while another benefits. Until we all wise up and stop allowing it to happen, enjoy buying your own lube.

While whipsawing is true... One of the main reasons for shifting of flying is non performance. To say it's just one thing only is disingenuous.

Look at Compass. Once the absolute mecca with upgrade times under a year, highest pay (for like a month), crazy growth and guys who could hold lines right out of the school-house; you'd move 10% on the seniority list every month. Now, less than 2 years later, hiring freeze and lost 8% of their fleet. There is NO stability, except for MAYBE Skywest and Horizon. The only thing you should place bets on is attrition, and the house always gets their money on that bet.

Horizon is "trying" to grow. But they have no clue how to keep and attract pilots. I dont recommend applying here.

What would you recommend to a "naive pilot"?

Nothing.

In this supposed utopian society that is being discussed if you are at a carrier with a contract that is not as good as the carrier with the "best" contract you are supposed to never vote a better contact for yourself because they might shift flying from the more expensive carrier to your carrier as part of the deal. In short if you didn't select or weren't hired by the "best" carrier you are supposed to just lie in your own feces because otherwise you're the reason for whipsaw.... : Rolleyes:

And then trans states, and commutair, benefit by taking planes from xjet, and skywest basically letting xjet/asa downsize into nothing.