Attrition to Majors/Mainline
 

Hi Everybody,
I am a current CFI about a year away from going to class, and should be picking my class date towards the end of this year. Currently, I have job offers at Republic and PSA (both of which are through the cadet programs). I am also considering interviewing at Endeavor potentially when the time gets closer.

I live in North Carolina, so living in base is only an option at PSA way down the road since CLT is super senior. I do not mind commuting within reason, as I would like to stay/live in the NC area. Up until this point, my end goal has been American (for various reasons) and my heart has been set on PSA mostly, however, I have been hearing some things and reading up on some things at mainline AA that are making me more open to other opportunities- I would still like to end up at either AA, DAL, UAL, or SWA.
Everything else in terms of QOL, culture, a/c, etc. screams Republic except one thing... Career progression and attrition. This is one area I don't know much about and have not seen stats on where RJET pilots move on to. I have heard rumor (mainly from my WO friends) not to go to Republic as it is "easy to get stuck" since there is no flow, interview program, or any type of advancement "pipeline"... I personally can't check any minority boxes, but will have a 4-year degree and very clean background- No FAA or other violations. From the way it looks now, Republic also seems to be the better place to be should the economy turn down sometime in the near future as well... .
What is the general consensus about coming to Republic in terms of advancement/attrition?

I know that most of AA new hires come from Wholly Owns, but anymore, I am not sure if I am set in stone on going to AA.
I have a little time to decide, and really riding out the rest of this year depending on what happens at the said airlines will also help me make a better decision.

Thanks in advance for the help.

If you wan't to get out, and work for it, you will. No one is getting stuck anywhere anymore. Go where it makes more sense for you right now.

Firstly, please don't commit to anything this far out. You'd be doing yourself a huge disservice. Understand that the PSA cadet program requires you to sign a contract. If you decide PSA is good for you, by all means, go there, but don't commit now. Things are changing so quickly right now; it would be foolish to lock yourself into something.

Secondly, it's true that Republic doesn't have any sort of program that makes getting hired by a major easier. How important that is largely remains a matter of opinion. I'm of the opinion that 2020 will be the year that functionally shuts up the (many) whiners in this industry with respect to mainline hiring everywhere (not just YX). Retirements are just moving into a roughly 5-year peak, where 4-5K pilots will be retiring from the majors every year. How far/fast Coronavirus spreads is really the only thing that could put a damper on that this year.

Look around at what's happening for clues to where things are at in the industry. United just bought a flight school. Do you think they'd invest time and money in that if they were confident in their ability to staff their airline with the looming retirements? Do you think they'd develop the Aviate program as a recruiting tool in order to try to staff their below-average regionals?

People all around this industry have justified PTSD from a lost decade where nothing moved, and a long history of furloughs and mergers over the preceding decades. But past performance doesn't indicate future results. Anyone telling you that's likely to happen in the foreseeable future is speaking from a place of emotion and not one of facts.

Again, how important a flow program or something of the like is continues to be a function of two major things: 1) how you see the next few years playing out, and 2) your resume, including any blemishes, networking ability, and willingness to do the legwork to make yourself broadly marketable for the positions you're looking for.

If you have a four year degree, a clean aviation history, etc, I truly don't believe that someone who will work to put themselves out there will struggle to find a job at the majors (or wherever they'd like to wind up). The numbers simply don't lie. With, say, 4000 pilots needed just to keep pace with retirements (that is, a net no growth scenario, which also isn't likely even factoring in a looming recession), that means the majors will require at least 2,500 civilian pilots per year for the next 5 years or so. The vast majority of those will come from the regionals.

Many of the pilots at Republic stay because they got stuck, and now would have to sacrifice too much in terms of short-term pay and long-term QOL to move on. We had 50 pilots leave in January, including a decent chunk of captains to the majors. And that's in a month where neither FX or WN are hiring. The pace is certainly picking up everywhere. Those that want to move on will be able to. And I'd be willing to bet the majority who want will get out of YX to a desirable place before someone at a WO flows.

Anyone telling you that you're likely to get stuck at YX is wrong. Period.

YOU are what decides whether you’re hired at mainline, NOT the current company you’re employed with to build experience. Don’t listen to the negativity of others that are not successful in moving on because pilots in general are known excuse makers and rarely admit their own faults/failures when it’s easier to blame something else out of their control.

DO NOT choose a regional airline based on “career progression.” Nothing good ever comes easy and no one is entitled to be hired at mainline, despite the attitudes of many millennials we have at YX. The effort to move on needs to come from you, not from your employer.

I concur with the previous replies. A bit early to be stressing over a decision yet. Keep in the loop and reevaluate in 6+months.

This is a great reply. Keep improving yourself and you’ll have no problem getting out of Republic. There are a ton of opportunities to get involved with the company/union.


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Go to Envoy or PSA if you want to go to a major. Republic has no flow

I can name about 45 people who left for greener pastures in January alone that would disagree with your assessment.

sadly you are wrong, the flow should only be used as a backup plan to get to American if that’s your end goal. If you are just trying to get to a major republic will work as long as you fly upgrade, fly some more and build your resume.

There are several that went to majors before upgrading, I'm guessing they had jet PIC from another employer. One of my classmates left for United in 6 mos (prior mil)....

Last month about 45 left RAH for greener pastures, 9 total pilots that we know of went to the "Big 3", 3 of those were FO's.

The rest went all over including: Jet Blue, Allegiant, Atlas, UPS, Spirit, Frontier..

I'm an AA pilot. First of all, like others have said, you don't need to get too wrapped around the axle worrying about it this far out. This industry is so dynamic and it's quite possible the whole landscape looks different by the time you're ready to apply to regionals. Having said that, I'll address some of your points.

AA has been hiring primarily from the military and its WO regionals in the past. A very small margin of guys have gotten through the door that didn't come from one of these sources. But starting in 2020, that is changing. AA is beginning to greatly amp up its hiring. The goal is to hire 1,400 pilots this year. The number of flowthroughs that AA takes each month isn't changing, for now. So this will open the door for many more street hires. Historically, roughly 50% of new hires have come from the flowthrough program. In 2020, that's dropping to about 30%. This is just the beginning of a massive hiring wave at AA. Retirements don't even begin to peak here for a couple more years. The company is just trying to get ahead of the game.

Now...this obviously makes the flow program at the AA WOs less valuable. So it's entirely possible that AA could increase the number of guys that flow each month to help recruiting at its regionals and keep them staffed. Only time will tell. AA is a great place to work and the career progression in the future is unprecedented with the amount of retirements forthcoming. It's not the only game in town though. The other legacies and FedEx and UPS offer excellent opportunities as well. One point I'll make though is unless you're willing to move from North Carolina, PSA and AA are the only places that will allow you to avoid commuting. And until you've experienced commuting in the flesh, you don't realize how miserable it is. It may sound okay on paper but until you've lived it you don't know how much it sucks.

Bottom line, the biggest hiring wave in the history of the airlines is about come upon us. You'll have absolutely no problem moving on from a regional to a major airline. So it just comes down to what you're after. If AA specifically is your goal, I'd probably do the PSA deal just to have that insurance policy in your back pocket just in case you couldn't get to AA through the front door. If you're open to airlines outside of the AA brand, then by all means choose wherever your heart desires. Good luck.

Well put, black cat.

Thanks for the great post, black cat . All good things to think about. While the flow is the surest way to make it to AA, as Dylan said, "the times they are a changin'." While AA could plausibly increase flow to help cover other attrition/retirements, doing so wouldn't be without a detrimental effect on their regional operation. I think it's far more likely they leave the flow where it is to ensure a comparatively predictable amount of attrition from the wholly-owned regionals.

Flow may be the surest, but also it could be the slowest...


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I’m not trying to be pessimistic, but 9 out of 45 isn’t great. That’s only 20%.. And out of those 9, how many had prior military experience? My guess is the majority. So for a pure civilian pilot, the current odds of moving from YX to the Big 3 still aren’t great. Probably less than 5% of those moving to the Big 3 are pure civilian with no military background.

I don't know a single person that got stuck at republic unless they were lazy and never updated logbook or had some crazy skeletons in closet. Your wholly owned friends are just drinking that koolaid. Their flow takes forever so their mouths are gonna be real blue. Also RWs contract, work rules, moral and pay is better than PSAs. Hands down.

if you seriously don’t know anybody at republic (or any regional) with no skeletons that wants to move on and can’t, you don’t know many people.

It really depends where you want to be. If AA is your absolute must have goal you'd be dumb to look at the past and think that republic is the best way to go. For whatever reason, AA just doesn't hire from you guys much at all. As others have said we are entering uncharted territory and it very well could change, but you can guess just as well as I can how it will shake out.

People are flowing from PSA and PDT in less than five years. Talk down the flow all you want but I don't see republic sending 6 guys (PDT) and 15 ish guys (PSA) to AA every single month after less than five years on the seniority list.... Numbers don't lie. Didn't list Envoy cuz I don't know much about them and their deal is complicated with protected and non-protected pilots. Flow won't be nearly that quick for someone today but just pointing out that you're either being negative on other airlines to make yourself feel better or you just don't know what you're talking about.

Most likely some some of both.

To play devil's advocate, AA could also slow the flow to a trickle in order to keep their regionals staffed and instead hire from EDV or other regionals.

Highly unlikely. For one, the flowthrough program is part of the WOs' contract. So they'd have to go down that road of fighting contractual language. But more importantly, flow is how they keep their regionals staffed. They don't have flow to staff AA. If they messed with that, there would be a mass exodus from their regionals which would do more harm than good. It's their main recruiting tool.

So the contracts specify what the rate of flow is?

Wrong, it’s contractual and written in no uncertain terms. Why make stuff up when you don’t know the facts

Yeah, it's contractual.

There is some language to slow it down for operational necessity.

The Delta Guaranteed Interviews from Endeavor are metered as well. A guy in my interview won’t get a class until May, where all the rest of the interview group received a March class. Costing him about 300 numbers at delta, could be the difference in a lot in this career.


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A lot of guys want to knock the flow, but think of it as a guaranteed card in your back pocket. You can still apply to other places and and AA outside of the flow and if you can’t for some reason get a call, your flow date is only getting closer. Think of it as if you are playing with house money.

By by taking one of the WOs off of your table of options, well your chances have gotten ever smaller for getting in off the street at AA unless you have a solid resume (military, PIC time, LCA, Volunteering, Leadership roles).

Personally think the flow will increase around the corner.

Personally I don’t know a single person that’s gotten on with the big 3 from rpa unless they were prior military. Everyone I know that left has gone to a LCC and I honestly don’t count that. funny thing is most of the guys I went to flight school with are all at the majors by now that chose other places initially (flow to aa, got in with UA CPP, or just a plain invite). Not a knock at rpa this is just from my personal perspective..no regrets though.

Well, it’s published by the union. There are several without prior mil. I doubt they’re making it up.

I don’t “personally “ know any either


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Attrition to Majors/Mainline
 

I am not prior mil. I leave for delta next month.

Don’t spread misinformation.


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Not spreading anything, all I was saying is I haven’t met anyone yet that’s got on that’s all..didn’t state any facts as I’m sure some guys are getting calls..Congrats by the way.

I’ve met quite a few, especially recently. I know the numbers are low, but the hiring is about to explode. RAH is in for a really tough summer. Thank you.


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Didn't know that. I learn something new every day!

Last captain I flew with had no military. Four year degree. Not sure his TPIC. He’s going to Delta next month.

He clearly said HE hasn’t met anyone. So just because YOU have, doesn’t mean HE has. Like I’ve said in previous posts, those leaving that are pure civilian are still in the minority.

Fair enough I stand corrected.


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I don't know anything about Republic, but at the Majors, the above isn't a thing and it doesn't matter.

No there isn't. There was language to increase flow above the monthly minimum, but nothing to decrease it.

aren’t there 3 groups of flows? As each group finishes don’t they flow less and less pilots to aa ending in the lesser of 25% of yearly aa hires or some formula? Which group is currently flowing?

Each of the WOs are different. I can speak most clearly to PDT and that is a simple ratio of pilots on the seniority list to pilots flowing per month. It's currently at 6 and there's no chance it goes to 7 because the company isn't growing. The only catch and the only way it can be slowed down at Piedmont is if AA stops having classes.