ilsbird

I have just been offered a class date for Commut Air, Republic Airways, Trans States. With upgrade time being my number 1 priority, I was tilting towards C5 however with CLE losing the flying, do you think the future at C5 is safe as a new hire FO, or one should rather go to Republic or Trans States....

kingairfun

What could possibly go wrong?!!!! This rationale works well for everyone looking for the quickest upgrade...never fails

The Juice

I personally don't now how smaller airlines like CMT are going to survive with a shrinking regional pilot pool of applicants, 117 regs, aging prop aircraft.

And be prepared to be told over and over that "upgrade is never guaranteed" and nobody should go to an airline based on current or projected upgrade time.

This forum is littered with the souls of 8 year FOs who chased an upgrade

Temocil27

That's pretty naive. You could get hired at Regional X because the upgrade is fast- something will happen that will change that historical upgrade time, I guarantee it. Base your decision on QOL.

NoLightOff

It's not that naive. All regionals are horrible in comparison to LLCs or majors so the goal would be to minimize your time at one and move on.

lolwut

People who can't get jobs anywhere else gotta work somewhere. If something in your background or resume prematurely stops your ride up the elevator, you have to get off somewhere, and being a Dash captain sure beats flying a night cargo in a light twin.

I actually predict these types of airlines to end up with some of the longest lasting, highest time pilots. Especially if they're ones that have been fired from other regionals.

makersmarc

Also bear in mind that there are tons of pilots that will be hired ahead of you at the majors, and a lot of things can happen in the 7-15 years it will probably take to move on. Ask anyone that got hired at Comair in the mid 2000s about what the outlook there was.

I remember flying with a young FO during that time period, and he said he would only be at Comair 2 years, 3 years tops and then he was moving on to the majors. I believe he is a Gojets now.

Geardownflaps30

Accept the job offer at where ever has a base that you live in or is easily commutable, has work rules and benefits that appeal to you and an environment where as things change in this industry you could stay as an FO for a decade.

The regional industry has NOT shaken out yet. There will be more failures/shutdowns and shrinkage of fleets as the industry consolidates and refleets away from the glut of 50 seat airframes.

Chupacabras

you will most likely never upgrade at a regional airline. Being upgraded when you are at the bottom of the list takes hiring pilots below you to make you near 50% of the seniority list. Yes, many will soon be leaving at the top of the seniority lists but you need to hire below you for the upgrade. Do the math, how many pilots would have to be hired to put you in the left seat at the regionals you have talked about going to?? At republic, you would need 1000-1500 below you....You think they can hire that many in 1,3,5,7 years? Not at the rate they are going today. Commute air and Trans are maybe a better bet cuz about 120 new hires at each would put you in the 50%, but being that small, will they be around in a few years?

a few years ago your question would get a valid answer but in this environment where regionals can't fill their classes, its going to be hard to move people to the left seat that aren't already a good ways up the seniority list at a given airline.

My guess is don't worry about left seat time, you won't need it to move on a major in 5 years

sandrich

Especially when places like JetBlue are taking FOs with no PIC time and as little as 3500 TT. I'll bet starting next year, they will rather a regional FO because they know anyone they hire with TPIC time will jump ship the minute the "big leagues" call. At least thats the hand of cards I'm planning on playing the next 2 years.

To the OP: a few above me said it, ill reiterate. Don't chase an upgrade because, honestly, I don't think any new hires will be upgrading anytime soon due to staffing-- they cant upgrade you if they can't replace you. Go somewhere that you know you'll at least have a job in 3-5 years, not having to worry about going somewhere else because the doors were closed and have to put yourself at the bottom of another seniority list back on year 1 FO pay (I just did it). Everyone has their own prerogative. Whatever answer you get today will be entirely different next week, or next month, etc. Republic is showing signs of potential to turn this industry around (maybe). TSA has less than a 1 year upgrade. But, thats only because most new hires have no prior 121 experience, like yourself, so that wont apply to you. Anyone with 1000 prior SIC will jump the line. You would be looking at least 2 years at TSA if your coming from CFI. CommutAir, while small, has a sort of niche as a turboprop operator but has trouble staffing. My answer would be: upgrade aside, what is the next most important thing to you? Base? Pay? Work Rules?