TodayQuote:
Factors that could change the picture:
None are reasons for leaving or not entering aviation, but possibilities.
GF
Always possible.Originally Posted by galaxy flyer
While I agreen with your rosy outlook, it always helps to have a “red” team look.Factors that could change the picture:
- Upgauging on many routes. Using less frequency and larger planes would be more efficient and use fewer pilots. We may have reached the end of frequency competition.
- JV deals like the many DL JVs could “out source” jobs.
- Reduction in RJ flying providing fewer paths to majors. That could lead to ab initio programs
Black swan event like another 9/11. Might not furlough but another decade of stagnation.
None are reasons for leaving or not entering aviation, but possibilities.
GF
Up-gauging is likely, and likely good. If it's in response to increasing pax numbers pushing airport/ATC capacity, that's good for everybody. More revenue, and better pay for up-gauged pilots.
If it's in response to pilot shortage, bad for pax (who lose frequency), but good for pilots who get better paying equipment.
But near-term up-gauging is also limited by how fast Boeing and Airbus can build planes, can't happen overnight, they're both already sold out for years to come.
