With no hiring and no furloughs figuring out the stagnation gets more involved. At AA, due to the number of retirements, if the airline shrank by 25% via attrition in the next five years, the junior CA today would drop by approx 1250 numbers for a net drop of the junior ÇA of approximately 250 per year. Similar changes will occur in all seats.
With retirements running approx 80/20 CA vs FO, and the airline manned at 46/64 CA/FO, the retirement bubble is generating new dynamics that will mitigate some or the stagnation or furlough impacts.
Each airline’s retirement numbers change the risk of stagnation or furloughs. Low retirements numbers are a higher risk and high retirement numbers mitigate some of the risk.
Last edited by Sliceback; 12-08-2017 at 04:55 AM.
Reason: Added - each airline’s...