Very true, when things are truly bad, lots of unemployed pilots, it’s hard for every pilot to find a job. But, I know a number, including me, who found corporate jobs and prospered since 9/11. Both furloughed airline and, at least five, I know who started their careers there.

GF

USAir was a weak player and had struggled for years against the larger carriers. The competitive market place, and retirement cycle, is different today.

The looming retirement bubble is creating crazy numbers. Assuming AA has a 15% furlough tomorrow, and stays 15% smaller, the junior pilot hired last month will be furloughed approx. 4 years and will have the ability to upgrade 3 years after getting recalled or 7 yrs after getting hired.

Guys can come up with their own furlough percentage, and resulting numbers, at their airline and see what the furlough risk, and duration, is based on their assumptions.

Ok. United furloughed twice since 9/11. American only recently recouped all of its furloughed pilots post 9/11...

I’m just saying that the gods of aviation misfortune tend to punish the overconfident.


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All the furloughed AA guys could have come back by 2012ish at the latest.

So the 11 year furlough somehow proves your point?


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I think the last date to return for the TW Pilots was July 2016. That included a 3 year deferral option.

GF

Welcome back Lugar

Yea that sounds right.

Just stating how they had the option to come back by 2013. Calm down

Run the same furlough percentages that occurred with 9/11, and lack of growth and the airline staying at the same size, and the new hire hired last month, who’d be the last guy recalled, would be recalled in under 5 yrs and upgrade about three years later.

Is any of this guaranteed? No, but any furlough of today would probably be vastly different than it was 15-17 yrs due to the different retirement numbers.

That’s the assessment guys need to figure out for themselves.