If you're not worried about getting PIC, ABX would be a better option. Plenty of FOs have been leaving for better places without PIC time. May as well get paid while you wait.

You mean like every regional pilot ever hired?

This just popped up on my cell. Guess Google has been watching my flight aware logins.

Don't know these folks, just passing along what the street is saying outside the flying side of things.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/426...percent-upside

The following quote tells you everything you need to know about the quality of the analysis (and education of the author) in the article. Remember, basically anybody can publish anything on Seeking Alpha, and people publish this drek in order to pump or unpump the value of stocks they own or don't own.

Here's the quote:

"The summary is that a pilot shortage puts upward pressure on labor costs, exasperated [sic] by a unionized workforce."

Oy. He starts with the premise that "Atlas is valued like a company in serious trouble." He should have just added, "Which it is." And stopped there and saved us a bunch of reading.

I actually think it's overvalued given what I expect to see happen over the next few years.

Anyway, a good giggle. However, normally I would rather watch or listen to Sam Kinison bits to generate laughter than to read a financial article.

From that article:

"This price anomaly is quite hard to believe and requires an explanation. The elephant in the room: one of the company’s planes recently crashed. While a tragic accident, the wikipedia article doesn’t claim any fault on part of the company while a WSJ article points to pilot error. This is the company’s first crash after hundreds of thousands of flights. There was insurance. This event is likely just rare, bad luck."

That final statement seems a bit premature. We don't know yet.

Folks, this guy is usually 100% accurate in his assessments. He’s a lot more accurate in his “tea leave readings” than our exco members. That’s not a knock at anyone, but some people have the knowledge that some don’t.


But I’m curious what Will thinks will happen at AAWW to further decrease the stock...?

I think that the author of the article underestimates the risk of government intervention as to future expansion as the training and hiring issues come to the surface, perhaps as a result of conclusions of the NTSB, perhaps otherwise; the AMC stuff that I talked about elsewhere -- that is, could AMC threaten a stand-down b/c of the training and new-pilot-quality issues; labor activity that is more-effective than the current efforts; and the possibility that one of the above might force Atlas (similar to Connie, Southwest recently, Allegiant, etc.) to come quickly to the table and make a deal, thus significantly-affecting the cost of operations and thus profitability and thus stock price. Right now, when Atlas competes for business, it builds into its pricing a labor cost component reflecting the current pilot contract, which it plainly doesn't expect to change for at least a couple of years. I do think that analysts have priced in potential labor cost increases and the accident in terms of dollar impact, but the current profitability puts a sunny gloss on things, and I think the analysts haven't priced in the potential effect of labor cost increases were they to come say two years earlier, and be more dramatic, than management anticipates.

Put another way, I think the article author considers the generic "pilot shortage" issue, which I think analysts generally don't find too concerning because airlines are continuing to put butts in seats. What the author does not do, in my view, is consider the pilot issues more-specific to Atlas -- i.e. will minimally-qualified people, particularly given the current training system and relaxing of OE requirements just to get people through the system, be able to accomplish safely the often-complex international missions that make up a component of Atlas's operations? If AMC thinks "no", then there is a very-significant potential issue out there beyond the scope of his analysis. Stuff like that.

So I think there is more potential downside than currently priced-in, and I think that the article author inappropriately pooh-poohs risks that are correctly affecting the stock price. I really meant to say that the author was wrong more than that I think there are thunderheads moving in that nobody has noticed.

My 2 cents anyway.

I've set back to see if our social media committee would reply, but it appears that the company has won the last appeal to our injunction on the appealed determination on the work stoppage injunction. Unanimous vote that we lost by the judges. Not surprising since many devoted union guys attending and exiled said it would go this way earlier on.

Won't say more on this until they come up with their story.

See attached opinion.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1tLo...ew?usp=sharing

https://theloadstar.com/pilots-union...ules-us-court/

Reader's Digest version article. Noted the union will continue fighting it. At least our lawyers will be getting billable hours out of this. At least the company didn't get a damages award like other work actions have.