Quote:
Originally Posted by sobo
Anyone that gives you an answer is speculating. Based on the fact that our jobs are linked to the success of the ULCC model and leisure travel market; the speculation we will give has a heavy bias.
I hope that leisure travel bounces back quickly. I hope that the ULCC model has given us the financial stability to weather the storm, and I hope that the model is resilient enough to capture sufficient market share when travel inevitably rebounds.
The stress and uncertainty of this event has a lot of pilots trying to prove that the career decisions they made were the correct one. The unfortunate truth of it is that we won't be certain for another year or two who the winners and losers are in this. I hope for everyone's sake that we all land on our feet softly. It would be nice to go back to the way things were 3 months ago.
While I agree that confirmation bias is heavy at every airline employee group right now, I think there are multiple well grounded reasons to be optimistic about our position. Since we all have plenty of time, a read of Sam Walton’s auto biography provides a high level view of discounting from the man who arguably did it best. The economics of this thing are obvious but to correlate some of his observations to our industry and particularly to our company right now is incredibly interesting.
Something I think that gets understated about Frontier is the agility it has from the way infrastructure is assembled , its size, and its current corporate governance. We to a large degree redeployed our fleet twice a year prior to this. The articles that suggest we are going to fail do so based on speculation about demand on our route network as it existed before this began. I would guess that some changes that reflect the world as it is now will be coming by the fall. Another great biography is “Boyd: The fighter pilot who changed the art of war”. After reading his theory’s on conflict is difficult to not view us with some advantage.
Of course I’m biased in all this because my livelihood is at stake. I am quite concerned however about all of our future employment prospects. In a free market I think we would at least hold our own and survive. Unfortunately I believe that we live in a society where more times than not the dollar spent lobbying is more effective than the one spent innovating. To that end, I think our biggest risk is that the government picks the winners and Frontier lacks the influence required to assure we get put the list.