Mutations Not Enhancing COVID Spread - Airline Pilot Central Forums

rickair7777 , 11-25-2020 10:25 AM

Prime Minister/Moderator

At least not so far.

Makes sense, because the original version spreads pretty well, it doesn't actually need to mutate to thrive.

Vaccines might change that, since it will experience evolutionary pressure to work around vaccines (which it may or may not be able to do, to a greater or lesser degree).

https://www.reuters.com/article/heal...-idUSKBN28518O

Excargodog , 01-20-2021 06:05 PM

Perennial Reserve

resurrecting a thread to demo how quick things are changing:

Quote:
Fears that the vaccines would be powerless against new variants intensified at a scientific conference held online on Saturday, when South African scientists reported that in laboratory tests, serum samples from 21 of a group of 44 Covid-19 survivors did not destroy the variant circulating in that country.

The samples that were successful against the variant were taken from patients who had been hospitalized. These patients had higher blood levels of so-called neutralizing antibodies — the subset of antibodies needed to disarm the virus and prevent infection — than those who were only mildly ill.

The results “strongly, strongly suggest that several mutations that we see in the South Africa variant are going to have a significant effect on the sensitivity of that virus to neutralization,” said Penny Moore, a virologist at the National Institute for Communicable Diseases in South Africa who led the study

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/20/h...-immunity.html

it’s only been a year or so and so much of what we ‘know’ about this organism is still sort of tentative. And what was entirely correct not too long ago is only MOSTLY correct today.

Vaccinations do appear to give more infection against the mutant strains than mild asymptomatic infections though.

So far at least.

Sperrysan , 01-21-2021 06:59 AM

Banned

Quote:

Originally Posted by Excargodog

resurrecting a thread to demo how quick things are changing:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/20/h...-immunity.html

it’s only been a year or so and so much of what we ‘know’ about this organism is still sort of tentative. And what was entirely correct not too long ago is only MOSTLY correct today.

Vaccinations do appear to give more infection against the mutant strains than mild asymptomatic infections though.

So far at least.

Phheewww. Good to hear. I was scared this pandemic was going to get worse. I heard we are at an all time high for covid deaths. That number from April just keeps going up.....slowly.

skywatch , 01-21-2021 10:30 AM

Gets Weekdays Off

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sperrysan

Phheewww. Good to hear. I was scared this pandemic was going to get worse. I heard we are at an all time high for covid deaths. That number from April just keeps going up.....slowly.

I will make a bold prediction that next month we will be at an all time high for COVID-19 deaths also. and the month after that, there will be even more!

Excargodog , 01-21-2021 01:59 PM

Perennial Reserve

Quote:

Originally Posted by skywatch

I will make a bold prediction that next month we will be at an all time high for COVID-19 deaths also. and the month after that, there will be even more!

Eventually all pandemics end. If only because you run out of 80 year olds with comorbidities...

Xtreme87 , 01-21-2021 02:34 PM

Gets Weekends Off

Quote:

Originally Posted by Excargodog

Eventually all pandemics end. If only because you run out of 80 year olds with comorbidities...

This one is not going to end for another few years.

TransWorld , 01-21-2021 02:40 PM

Gets Everyday Off

Quote:

Originally Posted by Excargodog

Eventually all pandemics end. If only because you run out of 80 year olds with comorbidities...

And the vaccines and those who have already had it reduces the transmission rate. As an example if the average person contacts and transmits to 2 people, they give it to 4, then to 8 by the third generation.

With 70% vaccine and already have it (caution, math ahead), 1 gives it to 2 x (1-.70) = 0.6 persons, it starts declining pretty rapidly.

jetlaggy , 01-22-2021 07:13 PM

maxing the min/Moderator

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-...ation-12161566

The new UK variant of COVID-19 - which is up to 70% more transmissible - could be more deadly than the original virus, the prime minister has warned.

Excargodog , 01-26-2021 12:35 PM

Perennial Reserve

From CNBC....

Quote:
Dr. Fauci says new data shows Covid vaccines appear to be less effective against some new strains
PUBLISHED THU, JAN 21 2021 4:31 PM EST
UPDATED FRI, JAN 22 2021 3:44 PM EST
Noah Higgins-Dunn
@HIGGINSDUNN
SHARE
KEY POINTS
Early data shows that the Covid-19 vaccines on the market may not be as effective in guarding against more contagious strains of the coronavirus, Dr. Anthony Fauci said Thursday.

Even if the drugs are less effective, they will still likely provide enough protection to make the vaccines worth getting, he said

#10

FlyPurdue , 01-26-2021 01:30 PM

Gets Weekends Off

Quote:

Originally Posted by Excargodog

From CNBC....

https://investors.modernatx.com/news...tivity-against

”...remain above levels that are expected to be protective...”

cases are coming down, and restricting travel from South Africa while cases of B.1.351 are coming down too - I still feel optimistic about 2H21. Although not if the MSM wants to keep the fear mongering though.