I think they might have the record for highest number of bad predictions over the past year.

Without three rounds of payroll support, things would be different

And if 9/11, and if 2008, and if covid...

Natural cycles as we've all learned. One constant has been that the customers all seem to come back eventually... there doesn't seem to be an alternate reality where people just don't want to travel anymore, or prefer driving for days over flying for a few hours.

Somebody just forwarded me an email from an interview prep company. Maybe this has already been discussed here, but if not...

- Southwest & Alaska Airlines Hiring Windows Opening Soon

-United reports 3000 new hires by 2023

-Delta will hire 100 pilots in June & July with 80 additional in August


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Black swans you can count on. Fairy godmothers not so much

Once all the requals are done for furloughed pilots (and training to different Metal for those required), AA is going to start hiring.

AA hiring Sept to Dec hiring 300 pilots. At least 600 (possibly / likely more) in 2022.

Delta is planning for 1,000 in 2022.

Incidentally, the most a major has ever hired is just over 1,200 for a year. Delta holds that distinction. AA and United are not far behind.

The point is, you say it would be different if… of course it would be. But it’s not…

No one predicted 3 airline industry bailouts combined with the return of domestic leisure travel far out-pacing even the most wildly optimistic projections.

We are witnessing a market share grab here. The airlines with the means are going to make a run at whatever they can get. Will they overextend come 2022? Can we expect domestic leisure to stay at elevated levels as inflation goes up seemingly endlessly? Time will tell.