PHX will go more junior. Most of the captains retire in the next 10 years. The top 50% of FOs can hold a higher paying position.

You don’t have to know rickair7777 personally. Anyone who has an update for their airline page should take his advice.

Rick has great credibility. Good track record. Wise recommendations.

Thank you for the insights. Tough to compare apples to apples as an outsider. (ie. rough seniority comparisons at a specific domicile). Seems like its just an educated guess at the end of the day?

Sent from my SM-N986U using Tapatalk

At Southwest airlines we have nine crew bases and one squadron based in Phoenix.

One squadron?

Sent from my SM-N986U using Tapatalk

It’s sarcasm because of the pilot demographic in PHX.

Thread revive... if one only has a 10-12 yr career left would the AA current retirement rate/seniority tilt the balance towards it being better for a PHX resident? WB captain is a non factor... so im guessing it really comes down to NB FO qol and movement between the two.

There are a lot of senior PHX CAs, but I am not sure how many of them are retiring in the next 5 or so years. With ~5000 retirements in the next 5-6 years, it will likely be quite a few. If you were hired today, I would guess 5-6 years as an FO and 5-6 years as a Captain. Roughly. If you live in base, even reserve isn't bad. 76 hours to sit at home and fly half of what a line holder would fly.

Really, it could be much less time to upgrade, but each base will be different. I think we are all expecting 4 year upgrades in statuses such as LGA 737 within the next couple of bids, like we had before covid.

There are about 13,000 pilots on property today, and half will be gone in 8-9 years.

Mandatory retirements as of today:
2022 - 551
2023 - 731
2024 - 837
2025 - 883
2026 - 877

And most pilots are NOT waiting until 65 to retire. I would expect close to 1800 actual retirements between 2022 and 2023 instead of the 1280 that is projected.

Any idea what ORD looks like for a new guy? Timing to get there etc... I know it's all a guess.

New hires still in training were awarded ORD 737 on the latest vacancy bid.