yep. 7/2016 hire is the jr 350B systemwide, just shy of 6 years. (Moving to 1/2017 hire by September)

takes about 65% systemwide seniority to be the plug on the 350.

I would tell a new pilot to bank on it taking about a decade to hold 350B at 500 retirements a year. Outside of the EU, we just dont fly that many places anymore.

agreed, unless we order more, I bet that plane takes awhile for anyone not on property yet to hold

Don’t we still have 27 more 350s to be put in service?

I mean, we’re not flying daily to a lot of places but we are still flying to HND and ICN 3-4 times a week out of Atl and dtw. But yeah, the world is collapsing in on itself.

I thought it was only 20 more, for a total of 44.

not terrible, but probably gonna take awhile for pilots hired today to hold it. If Intl comes back, I bet that only drives the 350 more senior.

someone hired today will be 13,7XX, at 400-550 retirements a year, that’s 6-7 years before they get to a 4 digit seniority number, which is probably what it will take to hold that plane if it is heavily concentrated in efficient long haul flying.

not as bad as it has been in the past, but I would not count on it anytime soon if I’m not even on property yet.

It is in desperate search of a new equilibrium.

I think it’ll go more junior just because of the number of planes on property going up. Need more crews, right?

Correct. And today is a snapshot of only right now wrt seniority and holding something.

No one knows what will happen in 5 years. Maybe we buy another 30 350s. Maybe 787s. Maybe we are in bankruptcy.

You’re better off going to a palm reader to find out what the junior 350B will be in 5 years.

DTW 717 is kind of a hidden gem in the system that is overlooked by a lot of people.

Generally speaking, the airport is well run, easy in, easy out, with few delays. Even in winter or TRW season, there's relatively little commotion. If you commute, there's a pretty good selection of direct flights to just about everywhere with less competition than ATL, albeit with less frequency. Hotels are plentiful, relatively inexpensive and all with free transportation.

On the 717 specifically, the trips are relatively better than ATL because of the somewhat longer block times. The 717 in particular is very junior for whatever reason, and you can probably get a line in short order. DTW 717 A runs very junior also, so you can do a quick upgrade if that floats your boat. For locals or close in commuters, the GS flow like water...all you have to do is turn the knob.

If you want to live near DTW, there are plenty of nice places if you're ok with the climate. Ann Arbor, like many college towns, is overpriced, but there are lots of other places, and outstate Michigan is really very nice.

Like NYC, if you are local, you can kill it with GS fairly reliably because of the ratio of locals to commuters.