Let’s have a little fun and see who has predictive super powers. Let’s keep it simple by limiting our prediction to a few simple metrics:

1. Timeline - Date of TA
2. Duration
3. Ratified or rejected
4. No concessions, a few concessions but offset with gains, or net concessionary.
5. Compensation - Total compounded gain in pay rates, retro/signing bonus, lags/leads/matches inflation.

I’ll start with my prediction.

1. We get a Christmas surprise after a largely symbolic strike vote of 99.2% in early November. TA announced by Dec 7th, MEC votes to endorse the TA and announces a 60 day ratification window.

2. 5 year duration, new amendable date Jan 1 2025.

3. TA is ratified

4. Few concessions offset with other gains, net non-concessionary.

5. 3%, 3%, 9%, 5%, 5%. 100% retro (compounded 15.6% earnings for 2020-2022). This ends up being equivalent to recent profit sharing checks prior to 2020. Total compounded increase of 27.5% over duration.

6. On a compounded basis, contract marginally leads (<1%) inflation from 2020-2022, leads (>1%) inflation in 2023-24.

Bonus prediction: TA passes 78-22.

We finally get SILs.

I predict people on APC are paid to try to flush out a position that is less than the negotiating committee has as a current table position.

Oh darn, you smoked me out. Actually, I do it for free. Management wanted to pay me though. I decided I would brown nose a bit so I could fluff my nest for the VP of Flight Ops job.

Where’s your prediction? I would think you would like to take a shot.

I didn't say you, I said people. But if the shoe fits...

Well, I just told you that you got me. Do you believe me?

99.2%? . Pretty weak you would vote against your fellow pilots. Noticed you included the rest of your like minded APC posters.

You have too many certifications to be the VP of Flight Ops. The next one probably wont even have a PPL, probably be from inflight.

I think your aim is low and you could benefit from some time at the range. The reason for the aim could be lack of practice or intentionally shooting into the ground. I have no idea what your motivation is but the result for the enemy is the same.