Extend Separation Date or Separate and pray

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I'm in a tough spot, even more so with the current hiring slow-down/pauses.

I have an approved separation date of 31 May 24 with Terminal starting 25 April 24. With just over 1 month until my Terminal start date, I was not feeling great about my odds of hearing back in time. I had previously spoken to my wife about extending my separation date out several more months if I had not heard back by the 3rd week of March and ran it by my commander as well with his blessing.

Yesterday morning I received an email from Delta for the online assessment and an initial email from Envoy to submit for information to schedule an interview.

My predicament is this...With the class pauses from all the Legacy's for the summer and into the fall, If everything goes as planned for Delta and I get a CJO from Delta, is the trend to get a class date that is closely aligned with my availability date or can I expect to get pushed into the fall as I've seen across the Legacy's?

My biggest concern is would changing my availability date after receiving these invites from Delta & Envoy cause them to rescind their invites?
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Quote: I'm in a tough spot, even more so with the current hiring slow-down/pauses.

I have an approved separation date of 31 May 24 with Terminal starting 25 April 24. With just over 1 month until my Terminal start date, I was not feeling great about my odds of hearing back in time. I had previously spoken to my wife about extending my separation date out several more months if I had not heard back by the 3rd week of March and ran it by my commander as well with his blessing.

Yesterday morning I received an email from Delta for the online assessment and an initial email from Envoy to submit for information to schedule an interview.

My predicament is this...With the class pauses from all the Legacy's for the summer and into the fall, If everything goes as planned for Delta and I get a CJO from Delta, is the trend to get a class date that is closely aligned with my availability date or can I expect to get pushed into the fall as I've seen across the Legacy's?

My biggest concern is would changing my availability date after receiving these invites from Delta & Envoy cause them to rescind their invites?
Haven't heard about DAL cancelling classes this summer. AA is doing it to clear a training backlog of pilots hanging out on the payroll and more importantly to to keep their WO flow pilots working in the RJs doe the summer because they know they won't be leaving for the U/LCCs or United this summer. United is getting pummeled by Boeing and cancelling classes saves a couple coins but puts pressure on Boeing to give it a bigger discount on the aircraft coming in the future. Come July and August everyone in United flight Ops will wish they have 200-400 more pilots on the line supporting the narrowbody schedule.

Everyone I know who pulled their papers and extended at the start of covid regretted it when hiring kicked off a year later. This summer will probably be a speed bump in hiring not a brick wall like Covid was. Even with the slow down legacies are planning to hire approximately 3500-4000 pilots this year. Thats historically an epic amount. You've got interest from 2 airlines. Unless you're a total assclown in the interview or they discover that you withheld information you should get one of the jobs. Keep applying to others.

Its a dice roll but you could end up hundreds if not thousands of numbers behind on a mainline seniority list if you don't take the chance depending on how long you extend for.
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I've got some pretty fresh info from a friend who interviewed and got CJO at Delta earlier this week...

They said expect INDOC no later than June.

That said, go get onboard with just about anyone in the meantime, but don't extend the separation because it just locks you into another date further right. If you are working for Envoy you can drop it like a bad habit right when a Delta (or any other indoc class comes up).
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It's OK. I get it, it's very likely you've not ever had a real job since before the military. But military people (otherwise known as people who will actually show up on Mondays and be there through end-of-business on Friday are really a hot commodity in the civilian market, in and out of aviation. People are graduating from college with $120k in debt and a worthless degree that only qualifies them to get a starter job at Starbucks and they somehow survive OK. You aren't going to starve even if you end up with a six month delay.

So take a couple of deep cleansing breaths and relax. it will work out. in the interim, shotgun apps out to all the other conveniently situated regionals and LCCs. It ain't a 10 year commitment. You can jump to whatever one most floats your boat even while you are in training elsewhere if you need to.
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What he said ^^^

If you're going to do it, the sooner the better even if there's some short-term financial stability risk. A few months of unemployment will be more than offset by having the lowest possible seniority number later in your airline career.

Even two weeks can make a big difference, ask me how I know.

Caveat: We're always subject to Black Swan risk, war, asteroid impact, global pandemic, zombie apocolypse, etc. Only way to avoid that is stay on AD, achieve three or four stars and retire at age 64.
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Quote: What he said ^^^

If you're going to do it, the sooner the better even if there's some short-term financial stability risk. A few months of unemployment will be more than offset by having the lowest possible seniority number later in your airline career.

Even two weeks can make a big difference, ask me how I know.

Caveat: We're always subject to Black Swan risk, war, asteroid impact, global pandemic, zombie apocolypse, etc. Only way to avoid that is stay on AD, achieve three or four stars and retire at age 64.
This exactly to the OP. My terminal was scheduled for May 2020...did I stay in? Nope. Even with everything on pause, floating in pools and waiting to see if the world would fly again it worked out. Short term pain, long term gain.

Don't be the "battered spouse" who feels they can't leave the relationship. Say bye to Uncle Sam and run out the door. Good luck.
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My mentality separating from AD was that I'd rather be unemployed than spend a single day longer there than I had to.

You most likely had plenty of time on AD to save up a rainy day fund for just this scenario- hopefully you did so.
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Quote: My mentality separating from AD was that I'd rather be unemployed than spend a single day longer there than I had to.

You most likely had plenty of time on AD to save up a rainy day fund for just this scenario- hopefully you did so.
OP: All the posters saying to just bail and get on with your life are likely correct. However, I’ll throw out the counter argument for the sake of discussion. Over the course of my career I’ve run into more than a few guys who had the misfortune to commit to bailing off active duty just as the airline industry hit rough times. This can result in a years to decade plus delay in starting your airline career at a destination carrier. Joining a Guard or Reserve unit provides some measure of safety net if that happens. Is the above scenario likely in the next year or two, I doubt it, but if you have a family you need to have a plan b and a plan c. MWS contract sim instructors are currently making good money so that could be a good plan d.
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Came here to reiterate, get out now, but be networking your butt off for plans b,c,d and e!

I got out right before Covid, but had a great DOD contract flying gig lined up. Able to support the fam well, had fun and got hired eventually at a cargo company.

edit: also directly affiliated to the reserves, got a small bonus for doing that. $200 per month for family healthcare is where it’s at!
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Quote: OP: All the posters saying to just bail and get on with your life are likely correct. However, I’ll throw out the counter argument for the sake of discussion. Over the course of my career I’ve run into more than a few guys who had the misfortune to commit to bailing off active duty just as the airline industry hit rough times. This can result in a years to decade plus delay in starting your airline career at a destination carrier. Joining a Guard or Reserve unit provides some measure of safety net if that happens. Is the above scenario likely in the next year or two, I doubt it, but if you have a family you need to have a plan b and a plan c. MWS contract sim instructors are currently making good money so that could be a good plan d.
To add on, you'll likely make connections (LORs, inside airline info, advice etc) if you're flying in a reserve component unit.
tricare reserve select is pretty nice too
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