Quote:
Originally Posted by ryane946
II see Boeing downright dominating in the long haul/freighter market.
By most accounts, the 777 vs. A330/340 fight has been essentially a stalemate so far. Seems to me that they are both good aircraft but reign in different areas. The 777 seems to be an extremely versatile aircraft that is superior in speed and in markets where a revenue premium is available. The 330/340 can match the 777's speed but not at optimum fuel burn, however it seems to be cheaper to operate. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder and we're way past the Boeing-Airbus war being about simply subsidies and the like although they of course play a factor on both sides (Boeing has always gotten indirect subsidies, bully for them). Having flown representatives of both manufacturers, I'd have to agree with the previous poster who said that Boeing has for whatever reason missed the boat on commonality and it's updates of previous models only go so far. They haven't built a 737 yet that has forced Airbus to re-evaluate the basic A320-200 which was built around 1988 or so. If ryanne wants people to take him seriously, he should post his numbers in a realistic context. If one were to believe him, Airbus launched an entirely new airframe(with the r & d he spoke of) with only 20 orders. The 380 is a new airframe, it won't get many new orders until it proves itself in service. A similar trend will likely hit the 787 as it enters the flight test phase, in the end it's likely the follow-on versions of these aircraft will sell better than the originals. At least one carrier, Fedex. has publicly said that they're counting on this to get cheap pax versions of the A380 to convert into freighters down the line.
Outside of the non-777 cockpit the 787 is a huge step in the right direction for Boeing. That said, let's be honest; if Airbus was proposing a predominately composite airplane with electric generators in charge of engine starting(2 gens required), pneumatics/pressurization, anti-icing, etc, most would say that they were nuts and wouldn't want to be the first to fly the bird. Many people are still upset that the 380 uses 540 kva generators and only has inboard reversers-rather innocous things consider the leaps on the 787. Listening to the reviews of the bleedless engines from the manufactures, it seems that the inital advantage isn't that great, if any at all, because of the added weight and rotational speed required by having two engine driven generators per engine and gearing the generators for the pneumatics and whatnot to the engine which hadn't been previously done. Those reports all availible in AW & ST since ryanne seems to be so sensitive to those who criticize his opinion. The real leap and advantage for Boeing seems to be getting an initial jump on optimizing this technology for later variants, 737 variants, and possible 777 changes along the lines of the A330 vs. A350. With only two major manufacturer s of aircraft left, I think the 787 moves position Boeing well to hold a 50% share of the steady state market going forward which wasn't a sure thing previously given the A320's sucess vs. the 737NG, the A380's relative dominance in orders vs. the 747-400 in recent years, the A330-200's dominance of the 767-300ER in recent orders, all in the landscape of the 330/340 holding basically even with the 777 in overall orders(ATW if you're interested ryanne).
Going forward, I think the battle will be pretty much even but interesting. The 787 will provide the platform for a new array of Boeing products, and will exceed A350 orders but not by the margin that appears now due to deep launch discount/incentives from Boeing. The 787 will likely marginilize 777-200 variant orders, but the second iteration of the aircraft will sell strong like the 767-300. The A350 will hold it's own against the 787 particularyly with charter operators, but it's greatest legacy will what it contributes to Airbus' new narrowbody a/c and enhancements of the 330/340 line which will be readily availible since Airbus hasn't changed the fuselage structure at all on the A350. The A380-800 will be similar to the 747-100; it will prove to be a good airframe, but the the next version will be the big seller. If it holds to it's promise of lower DOC than the 747-400, it will likely sell big in the end marginilizing 747-8 sales. Brittish Aero's wing seems to be far more than the initial version needs, meaning that in the end the efficiency offered could potentially dip into some 777-300 or A340-600 sales. I think both Boeing and Airbus will be forced to revamp their narrowbody lines, the only question is who goes first to set the mark. I'd imagine it would be Boeing since the NG really doesn't beat the A320 series and they have a big launch customer in Southwest who already seems to be welcoming the idea. I would suspect Airbus' aircraft would embody lessons learned on the 380/350. In the end, neither manufacturer is going to gain dominance just the same 50% share they hold now. That is unless Boeing decides to become less agressive in the face of the 'shareholder doctrine' that grips so many US companies. The only reason Boeing cares about sanctions on Euro subsidies for the A350 is because they thougth Airbus wouldn't match their 787 offering like Boeing hadn't matched the A380 offerring allowing each a relative monopoly and $$$ for ryanne and the shareholders. When Airbus didn't comply, the trade war started anew and the 747-8 was launched.