UPS has a 90 day furlough notice. The recession will turn around by 3rd quarter of 2009. UPS won't furlough after July 1st. Thus any furlough announcement will come prior to April 2d 2009. We won't do it before FDX either. FWIW.

If UPS won't furlough before FDX then you boys should feel pretty safe. We have too many junior pilots in senior seats and will need a major realignment before anything can happen. That means an excess bid and then required training...nothing here happens that fast (other than our guaranteed deliveries...plug). Hopefully we will all slide through this downturn with a little pain but everyone's job intact.

1. Furlough Notice

When a reduction in crewmembers covered by this Agreement
becomes necessary, crewmembers will be furloughed in
reverse order of seniority. Each crewmember to be furloughed
shall be notified of the furlough and, if possible, of the probable
duration thereof in writing at his last filed address. When it
becomes necessary to furlough crewmembers covered by this
Agreement, at least ninety (90) calendar days notice of such
furlough shall be given to all crewmembers affected, OR PAY IN
LIEU THEREOF, except in cases when the furlough is caused by:

a. Acts of God;
b. Circumstances over which the Company has no control
(which by definition shall not include a reduction of
volume); or
c. Strikes or other work stoppages.

Tim? Is that you?

Can you imagine if someone on the pax side had a FA come to the cockpit and tell them that there was only a few people on board. The conversation would turn to.....oh no we are gonna get furloughed. The company is losing millions (on paper). Oh no we are gonna get furloughed....

No one is going to give up market share over the short term. TOO EXPENSIVE. If either big US Cargo company flinches the other will step in and take business (DHL). Can you imagine if the pax side stopped flying money routes if they were not full a few times? Probably would not be in business very long.

L'il J.,

You normally post very informative posts, but I think this one is a bit of a stretch. Your use of specific dates may be misleading to some of our junior brethren. Also, you are poking your finger at "fate" (by saying nothing will happen at UPS before Fedex), and fate may just poke back at you. Now, as a disclaimer, I totally agree with the sentiment of your post, but am more cautious to not give dates of when people will be safe. Call it the superstitious in me...

All I know is that y'all are giving me anxiety.....

are you back at work?

- Nov 07 most were saying Age 65 would pass late 2008 at the earliest.
- Last summer gas hit nearly $150 a barrel and many said it would never go below $80 again
- Just over a year ago Obama didnt have a chance
- Last Aug no one would have bought that the Cardinals would go to the SuperBowl and Dallas wouldnt make the playoffs
- 2 yrs ago FDX was going to be hiring indefinitely into the future
- When Brown's last newhire class started in Nov 07 the plan was to hire some more after peak
- Last summer DHL was a "done deal"


You've got to be kidding me. If anyone can intelligently predict when the recession will end down to the quarter you have grossly under-achieved if you are flying boxes around. The recession will end when it ends and no one can accurately predict that right now. If anyone didnt know it already I think the last few years has taught us to expect the unexpected. Nothing is "over", "for sure" or "done" until its happened.

Of course not, aren't you guys always joking that UPS does whatever FedEx does ?

Not yet...probably just in time to move back another 40 numbers....yay!