Night Eagle

Nothing is "over", "for sure" or "done" until its happened.[/quote]



"Over? Over? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the German's bombed Pearl Harbor!"

Sorry I could not resist Animal House.

L'il J.Seinfeld

In general I agree with you. Predicting the future is a fool's game. However, predicting that this recession will end soon is a very educated guess. There are too many factors involved. Money is cheap because interest rates are low, companies have drastically cut production to such an extent that there already is a shortage of materials for production (such as steel), and, especially in our industry with DHL, the marketplace is being thinned of the non-hackers. Not only our federal government, but the government's of the EU and the other major world economies have done everything possible to stimulate growth. At the same time the weak and mismanaged corporations have been allowed to die. I don't think you can oversstate how good for us DHL leaving the US domestic playground is/was.

I voted for McCain, but I can't deny that Obama will be a refreshing change. People believe in him. I know a UPS pilot who almost put a contract on a house after finishing his probation last fall. At the last minute he decided against it and moved in with his in-laws with his wife and young kids. A poster on here, Frontseat, recently posted that he was avoiding all unnecessary expenditures and saving every penny because he feared a furlough. This is going on all over the country and is part of why this recession has been so swift and steep. Eventually people will get sick of living with their in-laws and driving old cars that need replacing. The economy will be stronger and there will be more government oversight of Wall Street. The post 9-11 American Federal government has been obsessed with terrorism and Iraq and has turned a blind eye on business. This has stopped.

And since you brought it up. Some of your points were spot on, especially what the "experts" were saying about oil. (How in the world can you expect growth to occur when energy costs triple?) But your others sound like words you hear in the crew rooms or ASC from all the 1988ers. I don't think there was any hard evidence that age 60 wasn't going to happen when it did or that DHL was a certainty.

Just imagine how good things would have been for UPS without the cheapest competitor in the marketplace with us the last few years. As bad as things seem now they will be as good in Jan 2010. As long as we make it to 4/2/2009.

JustUnderPar

This speaks volumes. I dont think I could ever live with my in-laws though. Great post L'il J. (thought you had been talking to Biggs)

UPSFO4LIFE

Amen!! I am just hoping it does not turn into a depression. You should go an CNBC with that prediction of when the recession will end. Many investors would like to hear from you. For all those who say the recession will end this year, there are just as many that say it is gonna last for years. I guess when people get their head out of the sand and start spending again, then we can talk about recovery. Until then, brace yourself, 09' is gonna get a lot worse before it gets better.

packageflyer

Maybe most people don't have the money to "get there heads out of the sand and start spending". Ever heard the term" you can sqeeze blood out of a turnip"?

UPSFO4LIFE

And maybe most people(the ones that keep the economy going) have the money, but are not spending because the media has put this country in a panic.

gremlin

This "recession will end 4Q 2009" talk has come from several economist talking heads on TV (whoever they are I could really care less). Also some more talking heads say we are at the beginning of a depression. Obviously the former is good and the latter is bad. Who's right?

UPS isn't dumb. They don't want to get caught short when the economy comes back. And they also don't want to lose money through a bunch of displacements and furloughs just to turn around again and recall/hire/fill vacancies before the cost of said displacement/furlough can break even.

So it comes down to the tea leaf readers in Atlanta. I believe they will err conservative since the loss of revenue/market share by getting behind and out of positing on the tail end of this thing is (IMHO as a line slug) more important than a loss on pilot costs by carrying too many pilots through the downturn.

Then again what do I know.

g

TipsyMcStagger

Will the title of this thread be updated daily for the sake of accuracy?

Tipsy

Vman

Or, maybe they can't get another credit card to buy anything else because they lost their job? The new inheritance tax should draw out the rich Farve's to get the economy going again....

UPSFO4LIFE

Or maybe Obama will save us all!