Lock in...then you should be fine.

1. Stay in for another 4 years,
2. Take the money,
3. Take half of found money and put into account never to be seen again
until eventually hired at major, then you won't be hurting first year,
4. While your waiting get an advanced degree unrelated to aviation,
5. Take some of the other half of found money and take wife and kids on
vacation - maybe parents too, they can help watch kids,
6. Don't worry about hiring waves - it all depends on the company - trust
me, you won't miss anything,
7. Eventually when you do get hired, vote NO on any contracts, at least
first time around,
8. Don't believe anything, and I mean anything airline management has to
say - they are all liars!
9. Don't forget to support your local O'Club.

This is an abbreviated list.

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but my understanding is that the bonus is GONE as of April 15th... or somewhere around there. That is what I have heard Navy wise. Disclaimer: I have not seen the message to confirm this.

SELRES and a another career for me. Airlines one day... maybe. Only if labor/mgmt relations improve and/or the supply of qualified pilots begins to diminish so that unions have leverage.

4 year $100k bonus? Without researching, is this a Navy program? There is no such thing in the USAF. It's $45K/3 years, $60K/4 years, or $125K/5 years (all in yearly installments).

I too, am in the exact same situation. My commitment has recently expiried. I could pull chocks right now, or stay in for a little while longer with/without any bonus. Unfortunately, seeking employment as a Guard/Reserve bum, I couldn't pay my mortgage.... looks like I'm staying in AD for the indefinite future.

I'd stay in, but I wouldn't take the bonus... the freedom to punch out is a bigger opportunity cost than 25K, specially as an O-3/O-4 making livable money. I'm neither, and as a Reserve bum I can tell you that's the biggest achile's heel with you AD types, you can't downsize out of that govt cheese, even after all the soul-stealing chit you guys have to put up with for it. For a 10-year AD guy to NOT know the paycut taking an airline job entails is inexcusable. I recognize not all of us have the foresight to marry a rich girl (I used to scoff at that notion, now I just nod and keep my thoughts to myself), but to stare at the mortgage bill post-separation and first year FO pay with cluelessness is just your own doing. It sucks but it is what it is.

If you can snag a Guard/Reserve job that allows you to effectively bum, you'd should be making 65-85% of what AD makes, depending on how much AD MPA devil-selling you can/want to do. Plus, you'd be better positioned to fall less flat on your ass if you get furloughed right away.

Additionally, you could do the deed and take mil leave for the year and do the guard thing until you can hold the schedule in your base of choice/time of choice/ hours of choice, whatever it is that makes you tick. Try that on a 9-5 non-flying gig. As much as they talk about USERRA, I can tell you from experience, it's a pipedream, they're incompatible affairs.

Don't get me wrong, there are a lot of messed up things going on in the Guard/Reserves as of late, TFI is killing the Reserve way of life, and I'm not exactly on cloud nine with the shenanigans going on at my unit, but all things considered, it is about as good a backup to the idiocy we call the airline industry labor contentions as there is out there.

As to the poster who suggested not to worry about hiring waves, I guess I agree if the point that was trying to be made was that there's little point in trying to constantly preposition yourself to be at the beginning of a hiring wave. I agree with that. Success at the airline thing is in my generally limited experience, SOLELY a function of timing. No amount of people "you know" will overcome chitty timing, and certainly being a good stick will do exactly chit for you in a job whose descriptor demands you be a carbon copy of your peers, and competitors. But to dismiss the relative space in time in which you're hired as inconsequential is foolish. At my unit I've met them all from the regional dudes to the senior CA's living it up and min running the unit, some even with ungrateful contempt. The difference between them all wasn't attitude, nor who they knew (to an extent), it was cold cruel timing. Some of us will get lucky and ride a career down easy street, some of us will get knocked down early and often and will quit or never progress to where others did. In that respect, it is about par for the course with that thing we call LIFE.

It has been suggested before that it would be foolish to give a cursory look to the retirement figures post age 65 and assume it will be a one-for-one kind of attrition. As someone sitting on the fence, I have to agree. I think it would be foolish to stare at 2013 and think the floodgates will spread wide open. The airlines will contract some, or a lot, and there's plenty of people currently on the street, not to mention all those who are currently building their time and will be sitting on the fence ready to throw an application when 2013 does come around, to consider said timeline as dramatically positive for snagging a top line job. It will be better than today, but that doesn't say much about today or tomorrow, since what's the exponential of a number less than one right? The exponential of a turd is a smaller turd, but a turd nonetheless.

So in closing, I'd keep the AD cheese as long as possible, but I wouldn't take that bonus though. I'd seriously consider Palace Fronting in lieu of the former, and learning to live lean, since you'll be doing that anyways pursuing an airline job. Good luck brother. Nothing you can do but that'll carry you farther in this business than anything I've witnessed. I gotta pick up more drinking and less essay writing.....

There was a time when the grass was greener. That time has past. It's not just a 65 thing that will be solved in 2012. The industry keeps reinventing itself and a result includes many flying opportunities but very few paths that, in the end will be anything close to finishing an AD career.

Good luck.

If you are not past the age limit, places like DEA, FBI, SS, US Marshals, Border Patrol and many more federal agencies would take you as a pilot. You are their ideal candidate. They start at $75k, but I have seen some advertised for $115k. Those may not be entry level. I don't know about commitment. Unfortunately I have "heard" the hiring process is lengthy and the training is long since they train you as an agent in addition to be a pilot. I think it is over a year. Usajobs.com is a place to start if you care for those. Worst case you could try that until the airlines start moving if that is what you really want. I personally would not even care for the airlines if I could get my hands on occasional mission oriented flying and make $75k first year. I have yet to make $75k at the airlines. I was getting close to it but no cigar still. Btw part 121 is extremely boring flying and when it is not, you don't want to go to work. 0.02

Good luck!

Don't even think about leaving and trying to go to the airlines. Airline flying is no longer a profession, it's day-labor and you're treated like that. Stay in for 20 and get your pension. Then afterwards.....[language]....you can try the airlines.

15 months ago, I walked after a great IP tour in heavy equipment. 3 previous Iraq combat tours, a likely fourth deployment out of cockpit for 7-12 months, Follow-on orders to an undesirable location, and a family that had dealt with enough hardship helped me decide to leave. I was hired, but on the back end of the last wave. My job has survived but it is a brutal existence. Upward mobility will be at a glacially slow pace. Like some others, I work three jobs, to make what I did in my military CAREER. Note: each opportunity now is a job, not a career. A 121 job, a part-time job, and a mil res flying job. I am waiting on one last opportunity for a career in 121. If that ultimately falls through, I am likely returning to active duty. My smartest decision upon leaving active service was to make a reserve commitment.

Learn from my error and value "the bird in the hand vs. the two in the tree". My greatest regret is that my professional progression has been stymied by this choice. As a professional, airline pilot or not, I am capable of greater things--at least I was in the military. Do 20 years, use the mil to get an advanced degree, then come fly here or run this place. Either way, you will have made the best decision for your family and your future. The grass is greener on the other side. Ironically, it is me looking over the fence at my military past. I do have lots of free time in the crashpad though...I am currently brushing up my spanish language skills through a Berlitz program. Hablas espanol?

Have you decided what you are going to do?