Tony Nelson

I would stay in the military for now and take the bonus. With the economy and age 65 events, it will take some time for the airlines to start hiring again at any significant rate. With that being said, if you can find a fulltime Guard or Reserve job I would give that some consideration. I think you have more flexibility there. IMO.

Ferd149

I would stay in. In fact, and others have disagreed with me in the past on this point, I would stay and retire if you can.

First, if you take the bonus you will be WELL over half way there. Sure, you can find a good reserve/guard job but, while possible, it is a difficult commuter life. You will have little time off between commuting to either the guard/reserve or the airline gig. Life is so much easier when you can just cut the USAF cord and go.

My experience was I always came up to a point where I could get out but no one was hiring. Then I was too old. Then the rules changed and I was able to still be flying at the end of my career (so current, a BIG DEAL) and just lucked into the timing for the NWA surge in '95. Yes I kicked myself for years flying with guys my age making bigger bucks, but since 9/11 and the wild ride the industry has taken, I've got to tell ya having an 0-5 retirement check and, if necessary, Tricare is worth the extra 5 to 6 years I spent on active duty.

I vote stay in, be the best AETC IP you can be (PIC jet time is a wonderful thing), be home with your young kids (if you have them) and I'll see you in a few years.

Ferd

VQ2 Spanky

I retire May 1st and the industry is what it is. No job prospects but I do have my retirement (mortgage is covered), health care and dental for the family. My retirement is 12K more than 1st year pay at some of the majors. I took the bonus and didn't regret my decision. Go FTS if you get the chance. The first time I was eligible to get out was 2002. We all know what happened then.
Now is not the time to get out. I am twiced passed over with prior time. That is whay I have to get out now. If I had the chance to stay I would.

OBTW: I think because of the industry and all the furloughs, fewer and fewer fledglings will come into the aviaition arena, meaning shortage of pilots in four years where the first wave of 65s retire. my 2 cents.

Spanky

send me a PM with your email or phone number and we can chat. I too was a Military flight instructor when I had the chance to get out.

ronnie75

I would stay if for now and not take the bonus. Gives you some flexibility.

Pelican

If you have the opportunity, go full time reserve/guard. It truely is having your cake and eating it too. You get to fly, you get great pay and benefits and for the most part, avoid the painful deployments that active duty guys endure. I'm mostly speaking of Navy active duty vs FTS.

SELRES isn't a bad gig either but it is a lot of work doing both that and the airline, something most FTS don't understand. Regardless of your branch of service, there are a lot of Navy reserve pilot positions out there, both FTS and SELRES. Our squadron has people from every branch of service.

Trying to time the hiring wave is like trying to time the bottom of the stock market, good luck.

HSLD

At the Macro level, the age 65 rule will stagnate pilot labor growth at the majors until 2012. As attrition due to mandatory retirement requires additional bodies in the seat, furloughees will be recalled (keep in mind there are currently thousands of furloughed pilots).

That forecast would be a reasonable guess during normal economic times, and of course these are anything but. There will be continued pressure to outsource, downsize, and find the lowest unit cost in airline operations.

As many have suggested, four more years where you are might be a good call.

NuGuy

Heyas,

I agree with the others. Stay where you are. Nothing major is going to happen for four years. Staying in is a no-brainer. The REAL question is what you do at the end of those years.

Watch what happens. Retirement at age 65 is NOT the same as 60. There is a sharp uptick in medical disability between 60 and 65 (this is from actuarial data) that will cause the early retirement of many more pilots than pre-60. We're now entering into that period (~62ish) where this will become more apparent.

If you see airlines recalling/hiring a trickle to meet this demand, then be ready to jump in. If they DON'T hire, and just take the attrition, then I'd stay put for another tour.

FWIW, retirements at DAL have already exceeded that expected for all of 09. No hiring is planned because they are still overstaffed in some areas.

Nu

Riddler

I wouldn't anticipate any gangbuster hiring for quite a while. Look at the big picture over the past 10 years. UAL went from 12,000 pilots down to about 6,000. Ditto for USAir. TWA went away altogether. The mainline shrinkage is correlated nearly 1-1 to the growth of RJ operators such as Republic, Mesa, Compass, Air Wisconsin, etc. You won't be missing anything over the next few years.

I was in your shoes about 1-2 years ago and I got out - at the absolute worst time that I could have gotten out. I got furloughed after just a few months at Continental.

On one hand, the Reserves have been awesome and I managed to get another job where I live, so I have no complaints. But between the 2 jobs, I'm working WAY more than I ever did on active duty, and I'm making about 90% of what I used to make. Even though I'm rarely TDY and never deployed, I'm also never home.

Just realize that the reserves are meant to be a part time job. Plenty of people manage to figure out ways to stay on orders seemingly forever, but it's not the norm.

I know more senior airline guys (10-15 years of airline seniority) who would rather volunteer for 120 to Al Udeid compared to go back to their airline jobs. That should tell you something.

Of course, there's still valid reasons to get out - 1 year remote assignments, UAVs, etc. If your wife is a sugar momma, then being a part time reserve bum would be an awesome life and maybe getting out makes more sense. But if you're worried that staying in would make you miss out on a hiring spree, then my advice is to STAY IN!!!!!!!!! PM me anytime.

Riddler

Riddler

P.S. A lot of airlines are currently undergoing contract negotiations. Just about every airline gave up pay, benefits, scheduling, retirements, and SCOPE. Now, everyone is trying to get it back, which is proving nearly impossible to do, thanks to several issues - the horrible economy, the pressure for management to outsource mainline flying to RJs, and the ridiculous constraints of the RLA that pilots fall under (ironically, railroad workers get better pay/benefits than pilots now).

TXTECHKA

I'd stay in for sure and they're giving you a sweet bonus to do it...no brainer