Quote:
Originally Posted by Mesabah
The best software reliability is around 99%, so a completely automated plane would error about 1% of the time. Which is several million dead passengers a year. Automation......not going to happen in our lifetimes. Remote controlled maybe, but that is far more expensive to maintain than pilots.
I call bull on this. This is far too complicated a study to assign such a blanket % to it. I'd guess that reliability of a computer system (especially redundant systems) would far surpass a human's ability in terms of error detection and correction. The number of systems we're operating through as things exist right now would mean that to apply your statement, we'd lose millions of passengers a year. Just because two pilots are sitting in the cockpit of the Airbus doesn't mean the computers aren't doing the actual work - that is a fly by wire airplane.
If you've flown an ERJ, you'd be familiar with all the electrical system safeties built in that automatically follow the logic outside of the pilot's control when problems arise. What are pilots trained to do? We wait for messages to appear on the EICAS and pull out a book and push the buttons that it says to push when it says to push them. Since the computer is already detecting the problem and posting the message, why not have it follow the steps in the QRH in a matter of seconds?
I don't think pilots are going anywhere anytime soon, but do not think for a second that the trend isn't anything other than removing more and more from our control.