Interesting article about scope and RJ's and the roots of the cancer.
Swelblog / Swelbar on Airlines - Articles - Mainline Pilot Scope: Will Regional Carriers Be Permitted to Fly 90+ SeatAircraft?
Does Scope Produce the Intended Outcome?
In the most simplistic terms, scope is the definition of work for the class and craft of employees governed by the provisions of a collective bargaining agreement. Its purpose is to provide job security for those employees. But it is safe to say that most scope clauses produced unintended consequences. Between 2000 – 2008, legacy carriers reduced the number of narrowbody aircraft they fly by 800, and more than 14,000 pilot jobs have disappeared.
So, one could argue that scope is just another example of protectionism that failed. As economist Henry George, a sharp critic of protectionist policies, once said: “Protectionism teaches us is to do to ourselves in times of peace what enemies seek to do to us in times of war.”
Scope negotiations have been divisive not only between labor and managements but just as much between the unions representing mainline pilots and those representing regional pilots. Ultimately airlines must determine whether the 90-125 seat flying of tomorrow should go to the mainline or be flown by their regional partners. To arrive at the right economic solution, it is time for organized pilot labor and management to stop putting a Band-aid on problems.
The Boyd Group International recently released an interesting fleet forecast that looks in part at new aircraft orders. So far, the only area of real growth is in the 75-125 seat category. Orders in other seat ranges are forecast simply as replacements from now until 2015.
Ironically, 2015 is when many regional contracts expire, primarily those for 50-seat flying. These expirations could eliminate nearly 500 existing airplanes currently under contract between now and 2016; with the lion’s share coming off contract in 2015. This is a conundrum for the regional industry for sure. There will be a thirst for new flying.
Where Do I Come Out?
I recently saw a piece by Lori Ranson on the Airline Business blog titled: “A New Line In the Sand” that cites comments by long-time Raymond James analyst Jim Parker on the future of scope: “As employee groups seek to regain some concessions made early last decade as a host of carriers spent time in Chapter 11, there could be some leeway in the size of jets flown by mainline regional partners,” according to the analysis. James sees the potential to renegotiate current scope clauses, moving the dial from 70-seats to 90-seats.
I am not one to be on the other side of Parker often, but on this one I am. I do not believe that the mainline pilot unions can afford to make another mistake. Their arrogance toward regional jet flying led to their current predicament. The economics of US domestic flying is simply much more difficult now for the legacy carriers. If labor can’t let go of their memories of what the industry was 20 years ago to focus instead on where it’s going over the next 20 years, then they will have no one to blame but themselves if they fail to help position airlines – and the pilots they represent – for success. John Kennedy once said: “Change is the law of life. And those who look only to the past or present are certain to miss the future.”
It won’t be easy for pilot union leaders to find a solution for a problem that they helped to create. Just as the US Airways East scope clause defines small, medium and large regional aircraft, it is time to define small, medium and large narrowbody equipment necessary to profitably serve the domestic market.
Once again, a call for pilot union leadership. My view is that management is indifferent as to which pilot group does the flying. I am thinking we are at that critical juncture in an evolving situation that leads to a new and irreversible development – mainline legacy carrier pilots performing narrowbody flying in the US domestic market 20 years from now – or NOT.