So here are some of the crew room and jumpseat arguements I've heard lately about Age 65'rs, recalls and pre 12-12-12 loss from the seniority list at UAL.

-There are hundreds of guys at the very top who have hundreds of hours of sick time built up and won't leave those hours on the table and will sick out the last few months till 12-12-12.

Ok, so I wonder about this one. Is the speculation true there are so many and they will do just that or is there a caveat here many are missing about sick time and are many just blowing up the numbers?

-CAL is going to have a need for 400 guys on the next system bid in January.

This one seems to be persistent around Houston these days. Not sure why and how a huge number could suddenly pop up, but I plead ignorance on the matter and wonder if somebody can address this one with better intel.

-There are a big number of guys ready to punch out, but are waiting to see if anything comes out of a contract which many speculate should be in hand by spring next year.

That makes sense, but what really are the chances of a contract in hand by spring and it seems unrealistic UAL is going to offer any fat retro or equity carrots in the contract unless they are forced somehow.

-The recall ratio will be as high as American, 9-10 to 1 mainly due guys staying military and two time furloughees concerned about quitting what they have in a shaky economy. Many will wait for the list to start moving in 2013.

Again, this makes sense. I definitely don't see many of 209 voluntaries coming back as they probably took it for good reasons. How many mil guys do we have on average at UAL? 40-45%? The CAL "job offer" stated these guys have to be free of committment to accept the offer. Not sure that is going to work and even if it's legal.

Not a expert by any means, but guessing the bypass will be more aorund 4-5 to 1 in the end. Should have some data in early Sept as Ted and Todd figure out the response. Should be interesting.

I'm no bright bulb thats for sure, but thats just some consistent chatter lately. Comments? Corrections?

"There are many guys waiting to punch out"

that is the one that I can say has legs. I fly everyday with guys that talk about what the Delta guys got. They want something, not sure what to call it (retro, stock options, bonus, buyout, etc) but do feel a big paycheck in some form is sitting around the corner and are willing to wait for it.

Are these the same hacks that consistently told me "even with the age 60 increase I wont fly past 60"?

How many retirements have we had in the last 3.5 years?

These guys will fly to the bitter end.

ABSOLUTELY true. Same BS that ALPA tried to pass over on us when they flip flopped to support the age change. I remember the article well saying that the "Blue Ribbon" panel had determined that most pilots would go out at 62 when their social security kicked in. I laughed at that one. Aaaannnndddd.... no one left. Well, DUH. And no one is going to leave early. The ONLY thing I could see is guys emptying their sick bank before they retire. THAT one makes sense.

Either way, next year things will change most likely. There should be a contract, although it may take a strike to get it. The spool up for 12/12/12 retirements will have to begin by Spring or early Summer. The guys holding out for a lump sum will bail as soon as they are eligible. Work rule improvements will require more pilots along with FAA rest rule changes. The guys going to CO that would prefer a United domicile will bail at the first chance which will require a training event at United along with one at CO to fill their vacancy. What am I missing?

One of the last items mentioned in the company's contract "offer" that was published last month is a $200,000 buyout for early retirements. It didn't state what the conditions of that buyout are, but I suspect that a lot of senior guys will be hanging around until a contract is signed so they can get their 200k (if it is including in a real TA) plus retro.

It was 250K and the JCBA had to be signed and the SLI completed by 10/1/2011.

I stand corrected, it was $250K. You are wrong about the date, however. The only stipulation is that the contract and SLI are completed prior to obtaining a Single operating certificate.

My crystal ball says neither will happen.....how's that?

Any pilot who believes he/she will receive 1 dime in "RETRO' is far removed from reality. Might be some sort of "SIGNING BONUS" maybe 50k for seniors and 25k for junior pilots, MAYBE. Can't see it in the company plan to ever give a contract, even more importantly can't see how most don't have a clue about what management really does. "PROTECT THEIR OWN INTEREST"