His data also showed that nearly 20,000 are retiring in the next ten years. Would you call that a shortage?

This depends if actual hiring takes place or they are retired-out and not replaced due to encroachment of RJ feeder airlines.

We are talking "pilot shortage at the majors", as I understand the thread....

Obviously there are too many variables for us to predict here which is why I try to focus on what's known today. What's known is there are 22,000 Regional Airline Pilots in the U.S. today and 20,000 U.S. Major Airline Pilots turning age 65 in the next 10 years. I have no idea how many military pilots retire each year (can someone help?) but in theory enough pilots are retiring from the Majors in just the next 10 years to nearly wipe out the entire Regional Airlines' seniority lists. Will there be 20,000 new ATPs issued in the next 10 years for the purpose of becoming a Regional Airline Pilot in the U.S.? Does every single Regional Airline Pilot want to fly for a major? Who knows? We could speculate on thousands of variables.

The numbers looking out beyond 10 years are even greater. I think it's safe to assume the system will be squeezed but there's no way to know what the results will be.

Yes, thanks for the data!

I just realized my initial post said 33,500 retirements by 2030. That number should have been 50,000 retirements by 2030. The retirements increase after 2022 not decrease.

Projected pilot shortage date? Somewhere between Feb 30, 2013 and Dec 32, 2013. Just sayin.

Sadly, what I predict, in the event of any shortage, is sadly, increased regional hiring and reduced "major" (or whatever they will be called then...) hiring. In other words, lets say yes a "shortage."

However the lack of talent will be in the RJ cockpits as majors downsize due to RJ feed. The RJ lines will need to hire, yes. The RJ cockpits today are not full of young spring chickens either. They will be retiring also.

The exception to this will be SWA however one has to wonder how much more they can actually expand. SWA is a great company and all that, but how many more flights does Lubbock need ? Lets me serious. I wonder how much expansion they can pull off in the next 10-20 yrs. Plus they have purposely hired all age brackets, contrary to AA's "average age 28" style of hiring (which is now biting them in the rear.). So it is anyones guess if a "shortage" will occur at SWA.

FedEx, UPS ? Who knows.

In other industries, a talent shortage is addressed by companies offering hiring incentives, recruiters going to campus and recruiting Juniors versus graduates (getting them early), and other things.

I am not going to hold my breath for that to happen at the airlines. When FedEx offers 10K "sign on bonus" to become an FO, or SWA HR person flies my wife and I to HQ and takes us to dinner and a NFL ball game, then yes, we have a pilot shortage.

Good discussion.

Whats the start date again ?

In 2020 I plan to be retired from professional pilot life and taking my son to college football games. Maybe spend some time playing with HF/Ham radio (yes geeky). Or goofing off. I don't intend to be sleeping at Drury Inn and waking up at 0500 to pull the plane out.

In 2030, if the average APC user is 35, then we will all be 53.

Can you adjust the years for us ?

I get the feeling all this shortage talk is what is keeping the pipelines flowing with students. We're just fanning the flames.

Also, I wish the flight schools bandying this pilot shortage would disclose why they think there is a shortage. So old guys are retiring. So what. Retirements happen in every industry, no? But why might there be reduced interest in getting into professional piloting? Low pay, extreme training cost, instability, shady operators, whip saw, inevitable furloughs, prolonged time away from home...??

The interesting thing to consider is that people are projecting a “shortage” based almost solely on Retirements. What that means is that 30-35 years ago when the regional airlines were many, many times smaller than what they are now, the Industry/Military was able to provide enough pilots for the major and other large domestic carriers during a time of intense domestic growth. The “shortage” talked about today is based off of the backside of a hiring curve that started 35 years ago, the backside is almost always less drastic than the front-side(due to early retirements, illness, furloughs..etc).

The best thing to do is probably ask somebody who got hired 30 years ago, what was it like? Was their a huge shortage? Was every regional airline pilot at that time able to get on the airline of their choice, or were some unable to get hired, and remained at the Regional's?

30-35 years ago the conditions were

Favorable Conditions for Shortage:

-Very small regional pool to hire pilots from(were talking the days of Navajo's and Metro 2's, airlines like Skywest had only like 20 airplanes)
-A regional airline system that was in the process of growing(thus demanding more pilots of their own)

Non favorable Conditions:

-flight training was relatively inexpensive
-Many Military Pilots


Today our conditions are different.

Favorable Conditions for Shortage:
-Very expensive flight training
-ATP requirement
-less Military Pilots

Non Favorable:
-A very large regional pool to hire from
-A regional airline system that is shrinking and is projected to shrink for the next 10 years.


The Question we have to ask ourselves is why did we not see a Shortage 35 years ago? Or did we? If we didn't see a shortage 35 years ago, what makes us think with our current conditions today, and not as drastic hiring curve as seen 35 years, we would see one today?

Excellent points. Excellent posts too.

It will be interesting to see what the future brings. The demand for skilled labor will increase. I am not sure about the supply though.

What is funny is to listen to the debate regarding a "shortage." As if there is an objective measure.

Thanks again for your informative posts!