I think you're on to something.

Everyone assumes the new hires for the majors will come from the regionals. Of course many will, but can the regionals afford to lose so many pilots with so few new candidates ready to replace them? Will the regional airlines have to raise pay and benefits to keep experienced pilots? I believe the regionals will not be able to staff their ranks if there is a large exodus to the majors. The barriers to start the career are too high.

Time will tell.

If it ever happens it can't happen soon enough!

Excellent point Mike, consider this whole idea is based on assumptions. I have seen many pilots hired by legacy/major airlines with no regional/commuter experience at all as well as no military time. Many of these pilot had experience flying cargo, charters, corporate/business or specialized flying. Some will say connections or luck played a part, I say maybe yes or maybe no! I have done all of this type of flying with the exception of military and specialized flying.

They'll all park airplanes before they give pay raises. They'll make more money, too.

Think about it. Fewer seats means higher ticket prices.

The barriers to entry have always been too low in my opionion. 1500 hours and an ATP has historically been the bare minimum most people start with at their first airline job. Hiring waves have always allowed airlines to drop qualifications down to the legal limits rather than forcing airlines to compete for pilots by raising compensation incentives.

This new law, along with the economic barriers that have been on the rise, will give us a little bit of leverage in pattern barganing in the future.

Remember, doctors do not command such a high salary because they went to medical school. They command such high salaries because of the number of potential students that were not allowed into the medical schools as a restriction of the AMA.

As an Alumni and friends with a handful of CFI's there it's way down. Especially compared to when I was a student there.

This whole paragraph bears repeating. Doctors control the control their own supply and demand ratio through the AMA. It's time ALPA or some similar organization does this for pilots.

The stage is being set for the advent of the american major airline pilot cadet program like they have in the rest of the world. Regional pilots will have to go down with the ship as legacy airlines pass them over in favor of new guys off the street who will work for nothing and be thankful for the privilege.

China and India are ramping up pilot factories that will produce thousands upon thousands of obedient hotel room sharing pilots a year. Open skies and cabotage will permit domestic air service to be provided by foreign nations at a fraction of the cost.

It is coming.

Skyhigh

Bingo! It's just like state certified geologists in California. A board of Geologists controls the testing process and the number of certifications. If you have someone in the know (uncle owns engineering firm) you can become a certified Geologist/Civil engineer/Soils engineer and make $350-$500 and hour. Why did I become a pilot? Oh yeah, I like to fly, what a sucker I am.

G