The company keeps a whole department of nothing but economists to look into the future, so far they seem to be doing pretty well. Freighters are the last to be affected by good times and the first to be affected by bad times. Keeping ahead of the game is the trick. That is why we have the buy outs, 727's shoved out the door early, 767's rushed to operation in a couple of months, the 777's, ETOPS, and LEAN events at every turn. With CFR 14 Part 5 coming shortly, IOSA changes, DOD requirements, being on top of the game is mandatory and be glad we have managed to navigate the messes that are thrown our way. I would not worry about a few hiccups, it will all shake out and long after a lot of freight airlines nosedive, FedEx will always be there. After being furloughed several times, I feel safe here despite the lower flying hours.

I see somebody just finished a thesis paper at ERAU

I think you have that backwards. The passenger carriers are much more cyclical and sensitive to even small changes in the economy. People can easily forgo travel or select a cheaper mode. They are less likely to stop buying items until the economy has been in a longer downturn. When the economy cranks back up, those material cravings seem to return very quickly. Express gains rapidly as there is a rush to refill the supply chain to take advantage of the improving consumer purchasing power. This is one of the reasons that FedEx and UPS have had much more stable histories than just about any passenger carrier.