Wrong. These analysts are discussing the size of the profession. It is their opinion that 121 airlines will shrink. It does not address the number of jobs being vacated versus the number of available positions.

Aerial surveying may not get you the quick hours you're expecting. One of my regional class mates did aerial surveying for a couple of years and only logged a a couple hundred hours per year. Other than flying to and from the location, the conditions to launch a survey mission has to be just right. I.E, not a cloud in the sky, the sun has to be within a certain angle not to cast shadows etc. This will keep you on the ground for weeks on end sometimes.

You're saying they are wrong about what? Net jobs? No, they considered the net total in their projections.

No. Net jobs means total number employed. They do not take into consideration a massive retirement boom over the next 15-20 years. Projections say tens of thousands of pilots will be retiring. A net change of 4000 less pilots is not significant when compared to those changes. Also, I don't even trust those numbers they are quoting. What are their sources? They claim there are only 46,000 airline pilot jobs in the country? The big 3 airlines have somewhere around 37,000 pilots ALONE. That doesn't include regionals, southwest, Fedex, UPS, etc. According to Delta, new widebody orders will be for growth, not replacement. It takes pilots to fly those. I did math. Now you show me yours.

You're right. I think there are 80,000 airline pilots in the US, 20K at the regionals.

I suspect any projected job losses will be at the regional level as small jets are phased out and replaced with larger iron.

Net airline jobs = probably less.

Net pilots still needed to replace mandatory retirements = lots.

Which means stagnation for the later hires.

GF

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If you're in kindergarten today, yes you could be behind a slow-moving wave of relatively young pilots.

That might be mitigated by hiring demographics...if the majors take enough pre-9/11 regional pilots and military retirees that could help smooth out the peaks and valleys in the future.

And it sounds like they are. Lots of military retirees going in the initial wave. Most of them graduated pilot training pre-2000.

Sure they do. Look here-




No doubt retirements will be large in the next ten years, but I have no reason to think the Bureau of Labor Statistics does not consider them. That's what they do over there, they research and tally up changes in the domestic labor force.

It is if (4000) is the net change after subtracting all the retiring workers from the total, and I think they did.

Well I'll look into that some more, but this is a fully-funded and authorized bureau of the US government with a stated mission of finding out and publishing facts and analyses about labor. I do not take their work lightly. They hire qualified analysts to work in non-partisan roles and cannot legally bring any personal or political bias to bear on what they publish, and doing so would constitute fraud which is punishable by federal law. They look like a pretty good source to me therefore. That's not to say they know everything all the time and are above making a mistake, but wholesale bias and incompetence is not what one expects from such a group.

No. The way I read their article they claim there were 66,400 airline pilots, copilots and engineers working in the US in 2012. I took the time to add up what APC claims is the number of active domestic airline pilots/copilots using our front page numbers (see below), and I get 83,834. The latter is 2014 data, which partly explains the discrepancy. And I suspect the APC total it is a little high, but not much. I think the number is about 80,000. So yes, BLS is a bit low at 66,400 airline pilots, but not out of the park.



The BLS figure does, and so does mine using the current APC data.

Sure, and that is what I have for now. I hope this helps.

There is no way they are considering retirements as part of that number. A net loss in jobs means that as people retire, they will not be replaced. It does not mean that 4000 people current occupied by airlines, not including those retiring, will lose their jobs. In this case, of the nearly 60000 jobs, there will be 4000 less. There will be far more than that in retirements over the next 20 years.