As for oil...purely from fundamental and technical analysis standpoints, no way to reasonably expect it to go back to $50 this year. Look at the horrible Q4 retail sales figures posted today. Consumers are saving money, not spending. This is economic contraction, which added to the over-supply of oil means that demand cannot be reasonably expected to increase as much as needed to absorb the over-supply and move the needle higher. Additionally, Iran is getting ready to flood the market with oil it has been under sanction from selling, but Obama's Iran Deal removes these restrictions. That will simply add to the over-supply during a time of weakening demand and put further pressure on oil prices. There are many major investment firms now forecasting $20/barrel prices this year, so I am curious to know what "analyst consensus" predicting $50 oil this year you are talking about. ??
That said, if....say....Iran and Saudi get into a shooting war (see: the recent escalated tensions between them since Saudi executed that Iranian cleric a week or so back), all fundamental and technical analysis is moot. Oil will skyrocket.
WTI closed above $49/barrel yesterday (24 May 16) and is flirting with $50/bbl today.
06-18-2021
AIRLINE
